It’s been a busy bye week for Penn State head coach Matt Campbell. Not just trying to turn around the season after a 3-4 start, but maybe even more importantly, trying to regain some momentum on the recruiting trail after losing his 2027 quarterback commit, Will Wood, to Boston College on Sunday.
It seemed that priority No. 1 for bye week recruiting was finding a new QB target to flip before the early signing period at the beginning of December. To that end, Campbell and his staff settled on four-star Missouri commit Braylen Warren, flying out to Omaha to extend an offer in person on Wednesday.
On Friday, two days after receiving the Penn State offer, Warren, the No. 19 QB in the country by 247Sports Composite, played lights out in the biggest game of his season so far, outdueling the No. 1 QB in the country, Trae Taylor, a Nebraska commit, in a 41-17 win over previously unbeaten Millard South.
Braylen Warren could be an even more costly flip for Penn State
Both teams entered the matchup of Omaha powerhouses at 8-0. In the win, Warren completed just 11 of his 24 pass attempts for 253 yards and four touchdowns, with 66 yards and another trip to paydirt on the ground.
On the other side, Taylor, who threw three second-half interceptions to allow Westside to pull away, finished 13-for-30 for 202 yards passing with 37 yards rushing and a score. While Warren wasn’t particularly efficient, he soundly outplayed his more highly touted counterpart, and with Penn State’s interest offering him leverage ahead of signing day, it’s no mystery which direction his NIL value will be heading.
Penn State hasn’t been an especially big spender in the portal or on the recruiting trail. It also seemed to be content not taking a particularly big swing at QB in the 2027 class with Wood, just a three-star, as the lone commit. Maybe that’s changing, or maybe Warren will simply leverage Penn State’s offer for a bigger deal with Mizzou.
A straight-up bidding war won’t be easy to win and could be hard to justify for a program that has such a glaring talent deficiency all over its roster. But Warren’s excellent play would make it more defensible, even if it means redirecting resources and shedding a commit or two from the class.
I’d still advise against overinvesting in one QB, but without a clear picture of the financials, it’d be a hard decision to analyze.
Matt Campbell still got in on Warren at just the right time
Quarterback is the first position to sort itself out on the recruiting trail, so most programs are already set for the 2027 cycle. Penn State is hoping to throw a wrench in that, but with Warren’s recent performance, he could drum up some additional interest.
If the latecomers can outbid Missouri and Penn State, it may not matter, but getting in on Warren’s recruitment before his biggest spotlight performance is better than jumping into the mix at the peak of his value off a win over Taylor, where he was clearly the best quarterback on the field.
Recruiting rankings factor in a lot more than just performance. As with the NFL draft, programs and industry rankings often bet on physical traits, hoping they can mold a toolsy young QB into a true difference-maker at the next level.
That can lead to misses, as with Michigan’s Bryce Underwood or another former Nebraska commit, Dylan Raiola. However, teams will continue to bet on those five-star talents in hopes of striking gold with a player like Alabama five-star QB Keelon Russell, who is the type of quarterback that is impossible to find in the transfer portal.
Through that lens, Taylor has the greater upside. But there’s a chance that Warren, who is 6-foot-1, without a massive arm, and who wins with touch and accuracy as a passer, is the better player right now. While not definitive, the possibility is tantalizing and makes Penn State’s flip attempt even more intriguing.
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