A redshirt freshman who first arrived in Happy Valley in 2023 after redshirting his first college season at Mississippi State, Audavion Collins took two years to emerge as a full-time starter for the Nittany Lions. In his fourth year, he’s become an underrated superstar.
Collins has been targeted 12 times this season and allowed just 2 catches for seven yards with five pass breakups. His 63.5 snaps per reception lead college football by a wide margin, and his name has begun to surface among the NFL draftnik community as a potential late-career riser the likes of former first-round picks Mansoor Delane and Devon Witherspoon.
He and Tony Rojas, two holdovers from the James Franklin era, are clearly Penn State’s best defensive players, and with a combination of young corners, Daryus Dixson and Jahmir Joseph lining up opposite Collins, man coverage on the perimeter is probably the biggest strength of defensive coordinator D’Anton Lynn’s unit.
Against Michigan, it’s time for Lynn to lean into that strength, even if it’s a bit out of his character and the intended construction of Penn State’s defensive front, because it’s his unit's best chance of shutting down a run-heavy offense two weeks after allowing Northwestern to rip through it for 413 yards on the ground.
It’s time for D’Anton Lynn to trust Audavion Collins on an island
Lynn has long relied on scheme diversity in the secondary, ranking near the top of MatchQuarters’ coverage diversity ranking at USC last year. That included ranking No. 13 in Cover 0 usage last year and No. 34 in run blitz rate.
However, this year, with an oversized defensive line constructed to take on double teams in the run game and stop the run with light boxes, which it has not done successfully in Big Ten play, Lynn’s defense has primarily played with a two-high shell and a low blitz rate. That was a mistake against Northwestern, a necessity against USC, and it has to flip against Michigan.
Michigan has a -1.3% pass rate over expected this year and a 63.6% run rate on 1st down, one of the highest in the country, and a 56.4% overall run rate. Former five-star quarterback Bryce Underwood hasn’t been disastrous as a dropback passer, but he’s outside the top 40 by passing success rate, EPA/dropback, and yards/dropback.
Underwood can beat you with his arm, but not consistently, so that’s exactly what Penn State needs to dare him to do. That starts by loading the box, bringing pressure on early downs, and, more often than not, leaving Collins, Dixson, and the rest of the Penn State defensive backs on an island.
Almost half of Collins’ snaps have come in man coverage this year, which is a pretty significant amount. And man coverage can’t be the only plan against an athlete like Underwood, who can beat you with his legs. But if Collins is trusted to take away a half of the field one-on-one, that allows Lynn to allocate resources not just to stop the traditional run game, but to account for Underwood’s legs on passing plays.
Michigan WR JJ Buchanan is a unique problem for Penn State’s defense
Utah transfer wide receiver JJ Buchanan has been a big-play threat for the Wolverines, averaging 18.6 yards per reception with a team-high four touchdowns. Ideally, Collins would be entrusted to take him off the board. But at 6-foot-4, 218 pounds, he’s a bit of a hybrid player in the passing game, working mostly out of the slot, and Collins hasn’t played a single snap in the slot this year.
In fact, Zion Tracy, Penn State’s primary nickel defender for the past few seasons, moved back to safety to plug a hole against USC, leaving true freshman Josiah Zayas in the slot. It’s a lot to ask Zayas to play Buchanan one-on-one, but again, if Collins is left on an island most of the game, it’ll be easier to give Zayas safety help over the top, or to cloud zones in the middle of the field.
Having a shutdown man coverage corner is one of the greatest schematic advantages a defensive coordinator can have. Through six weeks, Lynn hasn’t leveraged Collins in that way to help solve problems elsewhere on his defense. Against Michigan, he’ll need to, or even a struggling Wolverines offense will likely put up a number that Rocco Becht and the Penn State offense can’t match.
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