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Blue-Chip Ratio: Can the Nittany Lions' recruitment win them a title

Penn State football's Blue-Chip Ratio could indicate a championship-winning postseason run. However, after the 2025-26 season, head coach James Franklin may face a lot of struggles in the absence of both his star returners and an elite recruitment class.
BySydney Ciano|
Penn State football head coach James Franklin greeting recruits and their families following the Blue-White game at Beaver Stadium
Penn State football head coach James Franklin greeting recruits and their families following the Blue-White game at Beaver Stadium | Dan Rainville / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

A baseline level of talent is necessary for colleges to win it all at the end of the season. Penn State football has one of the most talented teams in the NCAA for 2025-26, but in terms of the Blue-Chip Ratio, the Nittany Lions just scraped the top 10 of teams with the highest percentage.

They have a 68 percent Blue-Chip Ratio, which still keeps them as a legit contender for the College Football Playoffs titles. However, some teams just have enough five- and four-star recruits to put them in a better position using this model. Alabama leads the list at 89 percent and is followed by Ohio State, Georgia, Texas A&M, Oregon, Texas, LSU, Notre Dame, and Oklahoma before getting to Penn State.

In 2024, Ohio State had a 90 percent Blue-Chip Ratio and took home the CFP title. That doesn't mean Alabama will absolutely win the national championship. In previous years, title winnersHa had as low as a 52 percent Blue-Chip Ratio (Clemson, 2016). However, if your recruitment is that good, it's a considerable indicator that a championship run is in the picture.

The ratio doesn't include transfers and, obviously, it doesn't include returners. That's where the Nittany Lions thrive. They have one of the best group of veterans returning for the upcoming season with loads of experience and the yearn to win a title — especially after falling short in the Big Ten Championship Game and the CFP semifinals.

James Franklin
Penn State football head coach James Franklin interacting with recruits following the Blue White spring game at Beaver Stadium | Matthew O'Haren-Imagn Images

Penn State's class of 2026 recruitment, though, may foreshadow the program's struggles after these key returners move on from Happy Valley. That's where the concern lies, much more than the current 68 percent Blue-Chip Ratio.

The Nittany Lions already experienced two flipped commitments and a number of recruitment losses from the class of 2026. Not landing those elite five-stars is piling up, and head coach James Franklin won't have his star starters back. He needs to find a way to filter in as they filter out.

Right now, Franklin has the No. 16 recruitment class of 2026 with no five-stars and eight four-stars out of 24 commits. Though Penn State had the No. 15 recruitment class of 2025, the 28 enrollees consisted of one five-star and 13 four-stars. The class before that: one five-star and nine four-stars. The Nittany Lions need a five-star headliner of their class of 2025, and by the way recruitment turned out to be by mid-July, that doesn't appear to be in reach.

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