The Big Ten has looked like a two-team race for much of the season, but even in its win over Indiana in Week 7, Ohio State may have fallen out of the top tier with the defending champs. Julian Sayin’s injury, and more importantly, the play of his backup, Luke Fahey, has blown the Big Ten wide open.
UCLA is still the only unbeaten at the top, while Indiana and Ohio State each have just one conference loss. Beyond those three, USC, Illinois, Minnesota, Iowa, Oregon, Northwestern, and Wisconsin are all 3-2. The way this season has gone, all seven of those teams may have a real path to the title game.
Penn State certainly doesn’t, but at least the Nittany Lions are on the board after beating the Boilermakers on Saturday.
Tier 5
18. Maryland 2-6 (0-5) vs. Illinois 20-17 L
17. Rutgers 2-6 (1-4) vs. Michigan 28-21 L
16. Michigan State 2-6 (0-5) BYE
Rutgers hit a few explosives against Michigan, and did it without KJ Duff, but also let Tommy Carr average 9.18 yards per dropback. Maryland hung tough with Illinois, but did it while offering free tuition to a student who stayed all four quarters, so how good can we really feel about the Terps?
Tier 4
15. Illinois 5-3 (3-2) at Maryland 20-17 W
14. Purdue 3-5 (2-3) at Penn State 31-17 L
Purdue and Illinois, which is weirdly fifth in the conference with a 3-2 record, are somewhat misfits. They both have legitimate wins on their resume, Illinois over Oregon and Purdue’s pounding of Minnesota, and both are well coached, but neither is an especially frightening matchup. Katin Houser getting back healthy for Illinois is big, and bowl eligibility is certainly within its grasp, but that’s more a credit to the program Bret Bielema has built than the quality of this particular roster.
Tier 3
13. Washington 5-3 (2-3) at Nebraska 17-10 W
12. Penn State 4-4 (1-4) vs. Purdue 31-17 W
11. Nebraska 5-2 (2-2) vs. Washington 17-10 L
10. Minnesota 5-3 (3-2) at Indiana 23-16 L (OT)
9. Wisconsin 5-3 (3-2) at Iowa 30-0 L
8. Iowa 6-2 (3-2) vs. Wisconsin 30-0 W
7. Michigan 5-3 (2-3) at Rutgers 28-21 L
Should Michigan be in Tier 2? You can make a compelling argument about a team with one of the best defenses in the sport that, even though it gave up 21 points to Rutgers, allowed just a 28% success rate. With Tommy Carr at QB, Michigan probably has a better defense than Ohio State, and aside from Jeremiah Smith, might be comparable on offense.
However, it only seems right to pair Michigan, Iowa, Wisconsin, and Minnesota together in this newly reconfigured Tier 3 because they’re all very similar tiers, and if the offense happens to click for a week, they could all beat each other, and even beat some of the best teams in the conference. Their best game, though, isn’t to the caliber of the A+ game of the Tier 1 and 2 teams. Maybe they hit their A-game more frequently than an Oregon or a USC, but upside matters significantly in a power ranking.
Like the group of four above them, Washington, Penn State, and Nebraska all fit together nicely as frustrating underperformers. Penn State finally has its first Big Ten win and could get its receivers back in Week 10 against Washington, but it’s hard to imagine there will be a material difference in the caliber of those two teams next Saturday.
Tier 2
6. Northwestern 6-2 (3-2) at Oregon 34-26 L
5. Oregon 5-3 (3-2) vs. Northwestern 34-26 W
4. Ohio State 6-2 (4-1) at USC 30-18 L
3. USC 7-2 (4-2) vs. Ohio State 30-18 W
2. UCLA 8-0 (5-0) vs. Nevada 27-0 W
Reality is constantly changing for college football teams. That’s especially true of this second tier of Big Ten teams. UCLA and Oregon already lost their starting quarterbacks, but now Ohio State has joined the party and potentially experienced the biggest drop-off of them all. Clearly, 2025 five-star Tavien St. Clair hasn’t impressed Ryan Day and his staff because it’s hard to imagine he isn’t better than what Luke Fahey put on tape in Week 9.
Either way, the Buckeyes are a materially different team without Julian Sayin, and seemingly don’t have the defense and run game to carry a backup QB. At least, they didn’t against a revitalized USC team that, when it plays to the ceiling of its talent, could win the Big Ten. Meanwhile, Ohio State is in trouble of missing the CFP altogether.
Oregon also looked like a different team in Week 9; not because of a QB change but because now-former OC Drew Mehringer is finally gone. With Jay Johnson calling the plays, Oregon’s immense offensive talent showed through against Northwestern. Dylan Raiola had time and efficiently attacked downfield, and Dakorien Moore played like the superstar he was supposed to grow into.
Tier 1
1. Indiana 8-1 (5-1) vs. Minnesota 23-16 W (OT)
Indiana needed overtime for a second straight week, and their upcoming bye week as badly as any team in the country. Josh Hoover is banged up, probably more than Curt Cignetti is letting on, and Grant Wilson had to take his place just to give Charlie Becker a chance to bail the Hoosiers out.
Yet, Indiana is still clearly the best team in the conference because of its star power and an elite defense that held Minnesota to a 27% success rate. The offense has issues, but if it wasn’t for numerous special teams gaffes, prior to the 60-yard field goal that sent it to OT, Indiana would have easily ground this one out.
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