Two weeks into full-blown conference play, the Big Ten’s Big 3 (Indiana, Ohio State, and Oregon) have been spared of any carnage. However, the second tier of Big Ten contenders looks as murky as ever, with preseason dark-horse College Football Playoff candidates like Washington and Penn State off to 0-2 starts in conference play.
The league still has a chance to get more than just three into the CFP field, but as the SEC added Missouri earnestly into the CFP race with a win over Florida, which pulled Mississippi State more clearly into the proceedings based on its Week 4 win over the Tigers, the disaster scenario for the Big Ten of getting just two teams into the field is still lingering.
The Big Ten needs another contender to step up, and there are a few intriguing candidates, even if the most compelling one was on a bye in Week 5.
Tier 5
18. Rutgers 1-4 (0-2) vs. Indiana 47-15 L
Indiana hasn’t looked like the defending national champions often this year, but the Scarlet Knights let the Hoosiers find their rhythm early and didn’t knock them out of it. Greg Schiano is seemingly just biding his time.
Tier 4
17. Illinois 2-3 (0-2) vs. Purdue 24-17 L
16. Michigan State 2-3 (0-2) at Wisconsin 31-3 L
15. Maryland 2-3 (0-2) at Nebraska 48-23 L
14. Purdue 2-3 (1-1) at Illinois 24-17 W
Illinois continues to distinguish itself with its defensive ineptitude. After defensive coordinator Bobby Hauck fired himself after the Illini gave up four touchdowns to Jeremiah Smith in Week 4, the unit did not improve in his absence, allowing 24 points to Purdue in a disappointing loss for a program that won nine games each of the last two seasons under Bret Bielema.
If not for the potential of the passing game with Katin Houser and Collin Dixon, the Illini could be joining Rutgers in Tier 5, and that’s entirely out of the question in the coming weeks.
Michigan State also slumped back in the rankings, though Pat Fitzgerald’s recent decline, signaled by a 31-3 loss to Wisconsin, is likely tied to the injuries his team suffered in Week 4, losing star running back Cam Edwards for the season.
Maryland didn’t win, but managed to steady the ship a bit after UCLA acted as a demolition crew in College Park last week, but Mike Locksley is still likely on the way out.
Tier 3
13. Penn State 3-2 (0-2) at Northwestern 34-13 L
12. Washington 3-2 (0-2) at USC 25-21 L
This is the tier of disappointment in the Big Ten. It’s convenient that these two preseason Top 25 teams and ostensible CFP contenders are grouped in their own tier, but that’s not just to represent their sad current state of affairs. These are probably the 12th and 13th best teams in the Big Ten, if not worse.
The case for a Penn State turnaround after its Week 4 loss to Wisconsin was based entirely on its defense, which took the ball away from Colton Joseph three times. Well, in Week 5, Chip Kelly and the Northwestern offense systematically dismantled that unit with 413 yards on the ground. It wasn’t just Kelly’s funky run game with triple-option principles and the threat of Aidan Chiles mobility that did it either. No, Northwestern bullied Penn State in the trenches.
There isn’t much talent on this Penn State roster, and that’s seemingly not the only problem. Matt Campbell has been thoroughly outcoached in his first two Big Ten matchups.
Washington took one last dying breath in LA on Saturday night, getting up off the mat to throw its best punch at a USC team that was reeling off a loss to Oregon in Week 4. Jedd Fisch’s steady stream of trick plays and Demond Williams’ flashes of brilliance were nearly enough, but the Huskies came up short and didn’t show anything to alleviate concerns about their inept offense. If anything, it just reaffirmed USC’s problems.
Tier 2
11. Wisconsin 4-1 (2-0) vs. Michigan State 31-3 W
10. Minnesota 4-1 (2-0) vs. Michigan 20-14 W
9. Iowa 4-1 (1-1) vs. Ohio State 31-14 L
8. Michigan 3-2 (0-2) at Minnesota 20-14 L
7. Northwestern 3-1 (1-1) vs. Penn State 34-13 W
6. Nebraska 5-0 (2-0) vs. Maryland 48-23 W
5. USC 5-1 (2-0) vs. Washington 25-21 W
4. UCLA 4-0 (2-0) BYE
This is the messiest tier in the Big Ten, and while it seems ridiculous to include eight teams in Tier 2 behind the Big 3, it’s hard to say confidently that there is a meaningful gap between these teams.
Minnesota handled Michigan in Week 5 after Iowa downed the Wolverines in Week 4. It may look stubborn keeping the Wolverines ahead of the Golden Gophers and Hawkeyes, but on a down-to-down basis, Michigan was much better than Iowa, and its ceiling is probably higher than anything Minnesota has put on tape. But there wasn’t anything fluky about Minnesota’s win to claim the Little Brown Jug, so I’m willing to admit I might be wrong.
Tier 1
3. Oregon 3-1 (1-0) BYE
2. Ohio State 4-1 (2-0) at Iowa 31-14 W
1. Indiana 5-0 (2-0) at Rutgers 47-15 W
Finally, Indiana looked like the defending National Champions. Is this team starting to gel together with the new pieces that Curt Cignetti imported, or did it just play Rutgers? Such is the eternal question.
Before the Hoosiers’ win in Piscataway, Ohio State proved it was head and shoulders above Iowa at Kinnick, but did anyone seriously believe it wasn’t?
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