As of Monday, March 3rd, there are eight Big Ten teams that will comfortably punch their ticket to the NCAA Tournament. Those eight are Michigan State, Illinois, Wisconsin, Purdue, Maryland, Michigan, Oregon, and UCLA.
Additionally, there are three, maybe four, teams from the Big Ten that currently reside on the bubble. The three, Ohio State, Indiana, and Nebraska, are either in the “Last Four In” or “First Four Out” columns of bracketologists across the country. However, one team is sneakily making a late-season push to punch its ticket for the third consecutive season.
Prior to Chris Collins taking the head coaching job for Northwestern, the program hadn’t made an NCAA Tournament in its history. The son of long-time NBA head coach Doug Collins, Chris has certainly made a name for himself in college basketball and then some.
Northwestern made the tournament for the first time in program history in 2017, also winning its first tournament game in program history against Vanderbilt. However, the next five seasons were a struggle for Collins, as he never had a season with more than seven conference wins in the timespan.
In 2023 and 2024, Northwestern was led to consecutive NCAA Tournament appearances by veteran point guard Boo Buie, also half-brother of Penn State basketball legend Talor Battle. Northwestern won its Round of 64 games but fell just short of the second weekend both years.
The Wildcats had tempered expectations this season due to losing Buie, and the team did not have a great start to its conference play. Then in a matter of two weeks, Northwestern lost two of its best three players, Brooks Barnhizer and Jalen Leach, to season-ending injuries.
Led by Collins, the Wildcats have stayed resilient, continuing to keep their season alive. Northwestern has won three consecutive games, all by double-digits. They sit at 7-11 in conference play and have two terrific opportunities to play themselves on the bubble against UCLA at home on Monday and at Maryland on Saturday.
Don’t be surprised if Northwestern makes a run in the Big Ten tournament, because Chris Collins is one of the best coaches in the conference, and has completely flipped this program around during his tenure in Evanston.
Let’s divulge into the rankings for the week of March 3rd:
Michigan State won the week by sweeping two of the conference’s best in Maryland and Wisconsin. The Spartans have looked stout defensively, holding Maryland to 55 and Wisconsin to 62. Junior forward Jaxon Kohler had a career-high 16 rebounds against Wisconsin, seven of which being on the offensive glass.
Maryland lost on a half-court buzzer beater by Tre Holloman against Michigan State at home last Wednesday but bounced back with a win against Penn State in State College. Freshman center Derik Queen had 23 points against Penn State but struggled against Michigan State. The Terps shot 27% from three between the two games, a number which must be improved to have a nice run in March.
Wisconsin started its week with a 26-point victory over Washington but lost to Michigan State in East Lansing. The Badgers shot 16% from three against the Spartans, and star player John Tonje shot a mere 3/13 from the field. The loss eliminates them from potentially winning the conference and now makes it a two-horse race between Michigan State and Michigan.
Purdue lost four straight games before defeating UCLA 76-66 at home in its sole game this week. Future all-Big Ten first-team duo Braden Smith and Trey Kaufman-Renn combined for 52 of the team’s 76 points. If Purdue can knock down some threes and Smith can stay clean handling the ball, it has a shot to go far in the tournament.
The shakiest team in the conference, Michigan played its three games this week at 2-1. The Wolverines beat Nebraska 49-46 in Lincoln, then needed a Nimari Burnett game-winning three to beat Rutgers at home before getting blown out at home to Illinois. Its last two games are against the top two teams in the conference, Maryland and Michigan State, and it’ll be very telling how they perform in those two games.
UCLA lost to Purdue on the road in its only game of the week. The Bruins fought hard for most of the contest, but the Boilermakers caught fire at the end. UCLA’s offense struggles often in these conference games, and I’m concerned about the firepower of this team for the NCAA Tournament.
The Ducks have been playing some great basketball over the last few weeks, as good as any team in the conference. Oregon won its sole game of the week by 21 over USC at home, extending its winning streak to five games. The Ducks have scored 75+ points in every game of the winning streak, and they need Jackson Shelstad to continue his phenomenal play to lead them into March Madness.
Illinois swept the week with wins over Iowa at home and a 20-point beatdown in Ann Arbor. The Fighting Illini certainly have a better roster than what its record says, and they are comfortably in the tournament at the moment. Let’s see if they can keep this play up in the last two weeks of the Big Ten regular season and conference tournament.
Indiana is the team most likely to make the tournament after the top eight in the conference. The Hoosiers have won four of its last five games, including wins over Michigan State and Purdue. Junior forward Malik Reneau missed the Penn State game on Wednesday, but returned against Washington and posted 22 points on 10/13 shooting from the field in just 25 minutes.
The Buckeyes are also firmly on the bubble, with the public being very split on whether it deserves a spot in the tournament. Only winning three of its last seven games, Ohio State still has work to do, and defeating USC on the road on Wednesday was a good start. The Buckeyes have Nebraska and Indiana left on its schedule, needing to certainly at least split those matchups.
It’s been a season of twists and turns for Fred Hoiberg’s Cornhuskers. Nebraska started conference play at 2-7, then battled back to make it 7-8, yet just lost three in a row to fall back to 7-11. Nebraska’s most recent game was a brutal home loss to Minnesota on a Brennan Rigsby game-winner, and its tournament chances keep taking hits as the days dwindle toward Selection Sunday.
Northwestern has fought hard in the last few weeks, winning three straight games without star players Brooks Barnhizer and Jalen Leach. The Wildcats' surge to the tournament continues with UCLA at home on Monday night, a game that is necessary for Northwestern to win in order to keep its hopes alive.
Rutgers lost a heartbreaker at Michigan last Thursday, and have nearly no chance to make the tournament unless they win the Big Ten tournament. Rutgers has been simply disappointing this season, but at least it was fun for Scarlet Knight fans to watch two top-five NBA draft picks on their team for a season!
Minnesota made a little bit of a late-season run by sweeping its Los Angeles trip in mid-February. However, it was too little too late, and the Golden Gophers sustained a bad double-digit loss to Northwestern at home this week. They rebounded with a win in Lincoln, which put them in a better spot to make the Big Ten tournament, and should see Ben Johnson keep his job for another season.
Losers of five straight, USC has not had a desirable season. It’s really tough for your roster to mesh well when you pull 10+ transfers who were all the stars of their previous programs together. At least Wesley Yates has been a joy to watch, and he’s certainly one of the best freshmen in the country.
Penn State lost its two games last week to Indiana and Maryland by a combined nine points. The story of the season has been these close game losses, and the team has struggled mightily under pressure. The Nittany Lions have been eliminated from the conference tournament, and it’s time to turn to the transfer portal for Mike Rhoades.
Iowa got swept on the road last week by Illinois and Northwestern, dropping down to 6-12 in conference play. If they miss the conference tournament, is Fran McCaffrey’s job in jeopardy?
It’s not a surprise to see Washington at the bottom of these rankings yet again, as they lost to Wisconsin and Indiana last week. I guess paying Great Osobor north of two million this offseason didn’t quite pay off.