Run the damn ball! It’s a coaching point as old as football itself and even in a world of new-age analytics and wide-open passing games, it often still applies. If you can run the ball, you can control the game, and in its 31-14 win over Boise State in the Fiesta Bowl, Penn State could run the ball.
The Nittany Lions averaged 5.3 yards per carry in their College Football quarterfinal matchup with the Broncos, but, inexplicably, first-year offensive coordinator Andy Kotelnicki only ran the ball 37 times (56% of his team's 66 offensive plays). Kaytron Allen went for 134 yards on just 17 carries (7.9 ypc) and Nicholas Singleton added 87 on 12 attempts (7.3 ypc), and as a whole, the Penn State run game managed a 46% success rate and 0.12 EPA/play compared to quarterback Drew Allar’s -0.10 EPA/dropback.
Kotenicki’s offense could get whatever it wanted on the ground, and despite a few deep connections through the air and excellent play by Allar, Penn State pass catchers only hauled in 13 of his 25 attempts. So, while the rest of the country spent the final night of 2024 yelling Happy New Year, Nittany Lion fans were yelling at their offensive coordinator to “run the damn ball!”
The innovative young play-caller, who has had so much success revitalizing Allar’s career Penn State’s aerial attack, eventually allowed Singleton to close the game out on the ground and hopefully learned an important lesson. One he’ll need to remember to beat the Notre Dame Fighting Irish in the Orange Bowl CFP semifinal on Thursday night at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami.
Notre Dame’s defense, under former Miami (FL) head coach Al Golden, is one of the best units in the country. Led in the secondary by last year’s Bronko Nagurski Trophy winner Xavier Watts, the Fighting Irish have the No. 4 pass defense in the country and No. 1 by success rate (32.2%) and EPA/pass (-0,42). Even without future NFL cornerback Benjamin Morrison, who is out for the year with an injury, the Irish have been elite and have the bodies to shut down Harrison Wallace III and Omari Evans, Penn State’s underwhelming receivers, for four quarters. So say it with me: “Run the damn ball!”
Beyond simply playing a schedule that features both Navy and Army, which is never good for run defense statistics, the Irish can be pushed around a bit on the ground. In the final game of the regular season, USC ran for 197 yards in a game in which the Trojans gained 557 yards of total offense and when Northern Illinois handed Notre Dame its only loss of the season, the Huskies ran for 190. To make matters worse, since those contests, Golden’s defense has lost its best defensive lineman, Rylie Mills.
Here’s a look at Notre Dame’s run defense numbers this season:
2024 | Notre Dame run defense | Rank |
|---|---|---|
Total Run Defense | 127.9 | 33rd |
Yards/carry | 3.6 | 24th |
EPA/rush | -0,02 | 46th |
Success rate | 42.5% | 90th |
Explosive play % | 5.8% | 81st percentile |
Through the CFP, both Indiana and Georgia have struggled to move the ball in losses to the Irish, but those performances say a lot more about the flaws of the Hoosiers and Carson Beck-less Bulldogs than a banged-up Notre Dame defense. The Nittany Lions should be able to run the ball on Thursday night, Kotelnicki just has to be willing to stick with it.
Penn State only ranks 20th in total rushing offense, but its run game is even more efficient than that ranking would indicate. With arguably the most talented backfield duo in the country in Singleton and Allen, Penn State is 5th in run-game success rate, and against a Notre Dame unit that has posted a 16th percentile stuff rate, running the ball is a recipe for offensive success.
Undoubtedly, Allar will need to make a few big plays for Penn State to advance to the National Championship Game, but those throws will be made much easier by a run game that keeps the offense on schedule and Allar ahead of the sticks.
In the Fiesta Bowl, it was almost as if Kotelnicki couldn’t help but take another deep shot, against admittedly shaky Boise State defensive backs, and as the greatly superior team, it didn’t cost him. If he calls the game that way against Notre Dame, it will. So, one last time before many more on Thursday night; Run the damn ball.