After two seasons at Penn State, Abdul Carter was one of the most athletic off-ball linebackers in the country, solidified as a member of St1x C1ty and a possible first-round pick in the 2025 NFL Draft at a position that has recently been devalued across the NFL. Now, coming off a Big Ten Defensive Player of the Year Award in his junior season, he’s a potentially generational edge-rusher prospect and a near-lock to be a top-three pick.
Carter’s career trajectory changed with the genius idea to move him to defensive end full-time, and apparently, the multi-million-dollar position change was all his idea.
A bad sign for Penn State’s coaching staff
According to now-former Penn State defensive coordinator Tom Allen, in a story from ESPN’s Kyle Bonagura, Carter came to Allen and said, “Coach, I want to play defensive end.” A statement that was backed up with a season in which the junior racked up 12 sacks and 23.5 tackles for loss at his new position, and will land him a massive guaranteed contract at the top of the draft.
When the position change was announced last offseason and coincided with the hiring of Allen, it appeared that the move was the veteran coach’s idea. Or that James Franklin had learned from his mistake with Micah Parsons, who played off-ball in Happy Valley before developing into one of the NFL’s best pass-rushers as a full-time edge in Dallas.
While Allen and eventually James Franklin had to sign off, it’s an interesting revelation that Carter inspired the move before ultimately carrying Penn State’s defense to the College Football Playoff Semifinal, and it further cements his legacy as a Nittany Lion legend.
More importantly for the future of the program, it’s another sign that allowing Allen to move on to Clemson this offseason was the right move. Any burn that the fanbase was feeling from the former Indiana head coach’s departure was treated by the powerful aloe-vera-like sensation of poaching Jim Knowles from Ohio State on the heels of a Buckeyes’ national championship. Still, if you needed more proof, this is it.
When both Oregon and Notre Dame torched Allen’s defenses with slot receivers that the Nittany Lions appeared helpless to stop, it seemed like a good idea for the program to part ways after just one year with Allen running the defense. Now that it’s clear that Allen didn’t initiate Carter’s move to the edge, it’s hard to argue that Penn State shouldn’t have just fired Allen if he hadn’t left for Clemson.
Abdul Carter draft projections
Just one off-ball linebacker, Alabama’s Jihaad Campbell, is in consideration as a first-round pick on Thursday night in Green Bay. Unlike Carter, Campbell blossomed after moving from edge rusher to off-ball backer, but despite his incredible athletic profile and impressive career in Tuscaloosa, he isn’t likely to come off the board until the latter half of the first round. That’s likely where Carter would have been selected had he stayed at linebacker.
The Tennessee Titans are projected to select Miami (FL) quarterback Cam Ward with the first overall pick, and most NFL reporters expect the Cleveland Browns to take Heisman Trophy winner Travis Hunter second overall. That leaves the New York Giants at No. 3 as the most likely destination for Carter.
Abdul Carter future salary projections
Say he becomes the third overall selection: that pick is slotted for a total value of $39.9 million over four years, not including the fifth-year option. Conversely, Campbell’s over/under for first-round draft slot is set at 18.5 with juice to the under, so let’s say he goes No. 18 overall to the Seattle Seahawks: that pick is slotted or a total value of $16.6 million over four years, a difference of $23.3 million.
Well, what if Carter was a better prospect than Campbell? Well, Micah Parsons was one of the best off-ball linebacker prospects in recent history, and he went No. 12 overall to the Dallas Cowboys in 2021. The No. 12 pick in this year’s draft is slotted for $20.2 million over four years, a difference of $19.7 million.
The difference is even greater on second contracts. The league’s highest-paid defensive player is Cleveland Browns defensive end Myles Garrett, who this offseason signed a four-year deal worth $160 million over four years with just over $123 million guaranteed. Comparatively, the league’s highest-paid off-ball linebacker, Roquan Smith of the Baltimore Ravens, signed a five-year, $100 million extension in 2023 with $60 million guaranteed. That’s half the average per year of Garrett’s deal and less than half guaranteed.
By APY, 12 edge rushers and over 30 defensive players earn more than Smith, and only three off-ball linebackers (Smith, Fred Warner, and Tremaine Edmunds) rank among the league's 50 highest-paid defensive players by APY.
Abdul Carter didn’t just make the right move for Penn State last season by switching to edge rusher full-time, but he made the right move for his bank account.