However unrealistic the expectations were, Penn State was viewed as a fringe College Football Playoff contender heading into 2026 with a schedule that avoided the three preseason favorites in the Big Ten: Indiana, Ohio State, and Oregon.
Yet, even as the Big Ten has largely underperformed across the board, Penn State has tumbled down from its high-water mark of No. 13 in the AP Poll after a 3-0 non-conference start, losing its first four Big Ten contests to enter the bye week at 3-4.
Bowl eligibility is still on the table with Purdue, Washington, Minnesota, Rutgers, and Maryland left on the schedule, but even a 7-5 finish, which looks unlikely, would largely feel like a lost season in Campbell’s first year. The CFP, the only real goal of meaning in Happy Valley, is completely off the table.
The former Iowa State coach faced an uphill battle in the offseason, being hired after the early signing period and without much runway to the transfer portal. That left him with a small recruiting class and 24 Iowa State transfers to make up the bulk of the roster. A roster reset has to come this offseason, but a bye-week reckoning can also start to salvage 2026, assuming Campbell is willing to widen his scope.
In his weekly press conference on Tuesday, Campbell told reporters that he’s not shifting his focus to roster retention, and continued to be adamant that backup QB Alex Manske won’t be taking over for Rocco Becht. However, a little time away on the recruiting trail could give Campbell the 10,000-foot view he needs to understand that development and in-game evaluation are the name of the game for the Nittany Lions down the stretch.
Penn State can’t salvage its season without shifting its focus
Could Penn State win out to finish 8-4? Theoretically, yes. There are no top Big Ten teams left on the schedule. That said, even Purdue looks like a real threat to this underwhelming roster with a struggling QB. Still, let’s say Penn State rallies to 8-4, beating up on the doldrums of the Big Ten. What does that materially change for the program?
Winning out would provide some optimism and momentum into the offseason, but it would leave Penn State on the outside of the CFP discussion, by a lot, and merely place it above the absolute basement in the conference without any wins over even a top-10-power-rated team in the league, most likely.
So the final 5 games of the year should be about identifying what this team should look like next year, and answering a few key questions:
1. Is Alex Manske the answer at quarterback in 2027?
Campbell has refused to give any ground on the Rocco Becht/Alex Manske discussion, which might say everything outsiders need to know about the redshirt freshman backup. Still, Campbell’s mind could be swayed into playing Manske at some point, and it should, because he and general manager Derek Hoodjer can’t fly blind into the offseason, not knowing whether they have a viable option at QB for 2027.
Does Penn State need to add a QB1 in the transfer portal this offseason? If you get an answer to that question, then 2026 wasn’t a lost season because at least it provides direction for 2027. If not, Campbell and his staff run the risk of overestimating their former 4-star QB and wasting whatever roster upgrades they make around him.
2. Can the passing game revolve around Koby Howard?
Howard could potentially return from injury against Purdue in Week 9, which would give him a five-week runway in Big Ten play to establish himself as a bona fide WR1. Howard was dynamic in the non-conference, living up to the hype that has built around him for two years. But how does that translate against better competition, and what type of pieces do you need to fit around a player who ran 57% of his routes out of the slot?
Can Howard consistently win from the outside for a team that wants to play with multiple tight ends on the field, or does Penn State have to morph into more of an 11-personnel team to accommodate Howard’s limitations if he’s a primary slot? It may seem a bit trivial with how much roster turnover Penn State will likely have, but understanding the specific types of players you need to add in the portal will allow the program to maximize its resources.
3. Do you have anything on the edge?
Penn State has trotted out one of the most impotent collections of pass rushers in the entire country this year. Yvan Kemajou has seen his snap count decrease, Max Granville has missed most of the year with an injury and won’t return to the field anytime soon, and Alex McPherson hasn’t inspired much confidence as he’s carved into Kemajou’s workload.
So far, four-star true freshman Jackson Ford has played just 22 snaps, all coming in the first three weeks. Campbell has continually teased his involvement, but after the bye week, could we finally see that come to fruition? If he struggles as a true freshman, that isn’t cause to write off Ford as an impactful player at some point in his career, but if he thrives, he could start to provide an option at a position of desperate need this offseason.
Impactful edge rushers don’t come cheap on the portal market, so finding a homegrown option could free up a few dollars to spend addressing another of the many holes on this roster.
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