Penn State is opening Big Ten play with Wisconsin coming to town in Week 4, and while the Nittany Lions are 3-0 and up to No. 13 in the country, the team is still a massive unknown. To compound the uncertainty, Matt Campbell’s group has already lost two of its biggest playmakers on both sides of the ball: Max Granville (out for the season) and Koby Howard (out for an “extended period”).
Still, the Nittany Lions should handle the Badgers in Beaver Stadium, and with so many recruits on hand, they need to. If that’s going to happen, Penn State probably needs a few of these predictions to come true.
4. Penn State holds Colton Joseph under 20 yards rushing
Colton Joseph ran for 1,000 yards at Old Dominion last year when he was the Sun Belt Offensive Player of the Year. So far, in a Wisconsin offense that doesn’t look quite sure how to maximize his dual-threat abilities, he’s rushed for just 82 yards on 25 carries.
The Penn State defense allowed Temple’s Jaxon Smolik to run wild, but the structure of D’Anton Lynn’s unit should be well suited to keeping the QB run game in check. The biggest strength of Lynn’s defense is his linebackers, Tony Rojas and Kooper Ebel, who will have eyes on Joseph most of the day, and without much high-level pass-rush juice on the defensive line, Lynn may opt for more of a mush-rush to keep Joseph in the pocket and force him to beat them with his arm.
3. James Peoples leads all Penn State RBs in snaps and touches
The discussion in the Penn State backfield seems to be between Quinton Martin Jr. and Carson Hansen, but there isn’t really anyone disputing that James Peoples is the team’s best passing-downs back. He’s an excellent pass protector and has shown good hands, so he’ll likely keep a firm grasp on the third-down opportunities and the two-minute drill.
For one, against the best defense Penn State has faced thus far, there are likely to be more passing-down situations that warrant Peoples’ inclusion. But he might also just be the team’s best runner on early downs as well. It’s not definitive, but he’s explosive enough to warrant some early down carries, so if he can cut into Hansen and Martin’s already split workload, but they’re unlikely to eat off his plate, then pretty quickly Peoples will be the alpha dog in Penn State’s backfield.
2. Yvan Kemajou posts his first 2-sack game of his career
Yvan Kemajou has posted a 17% pass-rush win rate this year, modest considering the level of competition, but he seemed to be ramping up against Buffalo, and this week he will get a favorable matchup against Wisconsin left tackle PJ Wilkins. Wilkins has allowed six pressures, and while he hasn’t allowed a sack yet, he’s been brutal as a pass blocker.
Kemajou needs to be Penn State’s most impactful pass rusher this season, and he should have plenty of opportunities to pin his ears back in Week 4.
1. Zay Robinson becomes Rocco Becht’s No. 1 target with Koby Howard out
Generally, Penn State’s preferred approach with Koby Howard out will likely be to lean even harder into its 12- and 13-personnel identity. However, if Andrew Rappleyea, who was listed as questionable mid-week, does play, he’ll likely not be at 100%. So, the Nittany Lions could play more than their typical share of 11 personnel against Wisconsin, even with Howard out.
The safe assumption is that Zay Robinson takes over Howard’s snaps in the slot, and that may be the pressure point to press against the Badgers. Granted, Wisconsin has played Notre Dame, which funnels much of its passing volume through the slot, but nickel Bryce West has allowed a team-high 12 catches on 15 targets so far this season.
Becht should test West early and often, along with Wisconsin’s safeties, who could have a tough time handling Ben Brahmer, especially in the red zone. But between the 20s, there may be quite a few Robinson targets.
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