3 Penn State Nittany Lions who need huge games to upset No. 1 Oregon in Big Ten Championship Game

Over the last 11 years since he took over at Penn State, James Franklin has become known for one thing, and it’s not winning big games and quality opponents. Franklin is 1-13 against top-five teams in his career with the lone win coming over Ohio State the last time the Nittany Lions won the Big Ten Championship back in 2016. Now, to claim his second conference title and a first-round bye in the College Football Playoff, Franklin will need to knock off Dan Lanning and the No. 1 ranked Oregon Ducks. 

Penn State is an underdog on Saturday night at Lucas Oil Stadium, though far from a prohibitive one. The Ducks are favored by 3.5 heading into the matchup and are a perfect 12-0 on the season. So, what would it take for the Nittany Lions to overcome to sportsbook’s prognostications and Franklin’s abysmal history in big games, well, their best players playing great. 

With a tough matchup against the No. 1 team in the country, Penn State will need big-time performances from these three players. 

Zion Tracy is probably not a player that many would expect to have on this list and if everything went perfectly for Penn State this season he wouldn’t be. Jaylen Reed was expected to be the primary nickel defender in Tom Allen’s defense before Kevin Winston Jr. went down for the season with an injury which moved Reed back to safety and forced Tracy and Cam Miller to fill in at slot cornerback. 

Miller has played the most snaps in the slot this season, but his snap count has decreased since he played 39 snaps against Wisconsin in Week 9. Tracy has won the job in the slot and he’ll have a huge task on Saturday night in Indy trying to corral Tez Johnson. 

Johnson isn’t Oregon’s big-play threat, he only averages 10.4 yards per reception, but he leads the team in catches with 67 and receiving touchdowns with nine. Johnson is going to get his, but the key for Tracy will be to prevent a five-yard slant from turning into a 30-yard touchdown. The 5-foot-10 165-pound slot receiver averages 7.0 yards after the catch per reception and has forced 12 missed tackles on the year. 

Slot cornerback has been a relative weakness on Penn State’s defense all season, so if Tracy can keep Johnson in check it will greatly improve the Nittany Lion’s chances of an upset win.

Now or a familiar name, Abdul Carter. Carter is a finalist for the Check Bednarik and the Bronko Nagurski Trophy in his first year at defensive end after a position change this offseason. Despite a lack of experience as an edge rusher, he finished the regular season with 10 sacks, 45 quarterback pressures, and 19.5 tackles for loss. He’s been on a tear lately with 24 pressures across the final five games of the year, and a game-wrecking performance off the edge could title the tables in favor of Penn State. 

Oregon quarterback Dillon Gabriel is a sixth-year veteran so he handles pressure better than most, and he shreds the blitz. When opponents send an extra rusher this year, Gabriel is averaging 8.9 yards per attempt, which is better than his season average, with a 70.5% completion percentage and 12 touchdowns to two interceptions. 

On those blitzed dropbacks, Gabriel is averaging just 2.69 seconds to throw. So, Allen will have to be more conservative against the Oregon offense and hope Carter can win with a four-man rush quick enough to disrupt Gabriel’s rhythm. On his 105 pressured dropbacks this season, the undersized QB’s completion percentage plummets from nearly 80% when kept clean to 48.8%. His average yards per attempt drops to 7.6 and he has thrown just five touchdowns to two interceptions. 

There aren’t many ways to slow down the Ducks, but an elite pass rusher can wreck any offense's gameplan and Carter will need to do it on Saturday night. 

Drew Allar has taken a massive step forward in Year 2 as Penn State’s starting QB. With new offensive coordinator Andy Kotelnicki, Allar has improved from 5.83 yards per dropback (99th in the country) in 2023 to 8.76 (5th) in 2024. He’s living up to the potential of his five-star rating in high school, but to truly deliver on that promise, he may need to win this game. 

Compared to the other top teams in the Big Ten, Ohio State and Oregon, Penn State is wildly outmatched at wide receiver. Franklin’s staff did a poor job evaluating transfer portal talent in either of the past two offseasons, and the program doesn’t have the NIL dollars that the Ducks and Bucks do to attract multiple dynamic playmakers on the outside and overcome roster-building mistakes. Throughout the year, Kotelnicki has constructed an impressively efficient makeshift passing game around tight end Tyler Warren, but against Oregon, it’ll take an elite performance from Allar to elevate the lackluster talent on the outside. 

Kotelnicki, and even Allar for that matter, can only do so much. Ohio State cornerback Davison Igbinosun plucked a touchdown throw right out of Harrison Wallace III’s hands for an interception in that matchup, but great quarterbacks can succeed on big stages despite their circumstances, and that’s what Penn State needs Allar to do. At his best, he could be one of the best quarterbacks in the country and a potential first-round NFL draft pick, a player like that can offset a talent deficiency and that has to be Franklin and Kotelnicki’s hope.