Penn State Basketball: The Mike Rhoades era is back on track

Penn State basketball hadn’t made the NCAA Tournament since 2011 until Micah Shrewsberry guided the Nittany Lions to the Big Ten tournament final and into the second round of March Madness last season. Shrewsberry darted for Notre Dame, and who could blame him? Still, that left Penn State back in a rebuilding phase with its fourth new head coach in five seasons.

Mike Rhoades came from a winning program at VCU and started his tenure in Happy Valley with four consecutive wins. The only problem, the wins came over Delaware State, Lehigh, St. Francis, and Morehead State. Then came the other problem, the winning stopped.

Rhoades lost five straight, including a game to his former school VCU, and another to Bucknell. When Penn State trailed Ohio State by 18 points in the second half on Saturday, it looked like this could be a lost season, and the Rhoades era could be short-lived.

All those concerns were put to rest by a ferocious comeback at the Bryce Jordan Center and an Ace Baldwin Jr. dagger three. Penn State beat the Buckeyes 83-80 and restored hope that the Penn State basketball program isn’t a lost cause again.

Ohio State currently ranks No. 34 in the NET and No. 27 in Kenpom. The previous highest-ranked team in the NET that Penn State had faced was Texas A&M who beat the Nittany Lions 89-77.

Baldwin, Rhoades’ prized transfer, is averaging 14.0 points a game but is only shooting 26.9% from three. For his career, he is well over a 30% shooter from deep and Saturday’s dagger may restore some confidence in his stroke. That’s just one of several silver linings to the start of Penn State’s season.

Kanye Clary the 5-foot-11 score-first sophomore, seems to be a great backcourt-mate for the defensive-minded Baldwin. As we know, and learned last season with Jalen Pickett’s colossal effort in March, championships are won by guards and Penn State looks to have two good ones.

That’s not to say this team has its sight set on a Big Ten title all of a sudden, but it is to say that Mike Rhoades could guide the Nittany Lions back to the tournament.

Baldwin and Clary will continue to improve their efficiency as Penn State’s 30.9% three-point percentage begins to positively regress toward the mean. It hasn’t just been poor shooting on the Penn State side that has hurt the Nittany Lions so far this year. PSU opponents are shooting a staggering 75.3% from the free-throw line, which is the 40th-highest any team in Division I has faced.

That is simply bad luck. In fact, Penn State ranks 321st in Kenpom’s “luck rating” which is “the deviation in winning percentage between a team’s actual record and their expected record using the correlated Gaussian method.” Basically, Penn State has been particularly unlucky so far, like Bucknell shooting 47.6% from three, or VCU shooting over 50% from deep and 22/28 from the line. Sure, the three-point defense needs to improve, but Penn State won’t keep facing teams that are scorching hot. Mike Rhoades’ team is not as bad as the five-game losing streak seemed, and their luck might finally be starting to turn.

The Nittany Lions take the court again on Saturday against Georgia Tech at the BJC.