FanDuel Sportsbook has early lines available for a number of Penn State football games this fall. Let’s take a look to see if we can take advantage of these early lines.
Previously, I wrote about Penn State Football’s win total for the upcoming season. Since that writing, the line has slightly moved as I predicted. The line opened at over 9.5 with the odds at -108. The line is still 9.5, but the odds are now -138, meaning that people have been betting the over more than the under. It might not be long until the number jumps from 9.5 to an even 10.
As I touched on in the last article, FanDuel also has betting lines available for certain games, particularly the big ones.
The first game of the season is the home opener, where West Virginia comes to Happy Valley. The line currently sits at Penn State -18.5. On paper, this game should not be competitive. WVU is expected to be in rebuild mode this season as they give Neal Brown one more shot to turn things around after a disappointing 5-7 season last year. However, 18.5 is a large spread for the first game of the season. Teams can typically take a few games to play up to their potential. Additionally, this will be Drew Allar’s first career start, and while the hype is high, no one knows if he’ll be as good as advertised from day 1.
With that being said, I do think there is value in betting the -18.5 right now for the Penn State football team. I imagine this line will increase during the fall camp as buzz grows around Allar’s development and the team. WVU will come in with not much hype and I’m not sure who’s betting on them to keep this line at 18.5 I could see this passing 20 before kickoff.
The next game available to bet on is when Iowa returns to Beaver Stadium. This line opened at Penn State -10 and quickly moved to -10.5. I predict this line is going to move to 17 points before kickoff. Barring a disaster, Penn State should be undefeated going into this game and building off the hype that has them predicted as a top 5 team this season.
One of my favorite things in college football is to bet on revenge narratives. And this has revenge written all over it. Everyone remembers the last time these two teams faced off. Clifford, Mustipher, and several others got hurt, Penn State collapsed without their leaders, and Iowa completed a comeback win. Additionally, the Iowa coaching staff and fans accused Penn State players of faking injuries. James Franklin does not forget and he will be looking to run up the score if given the chance.
The next line is Penn State +9.5 at Ohio State. This is the first game we see the Nittany Lions as an underdog. Unlike the last two games, I don’t see much value in betting this one early. Both teams have a new starting QB. And while the teams are loaded on paper, the games are played on the field and it’s best to wait and see how each offense looks with a new signal caller. This line could move in either direction depending on who’s performing better heading into the showdown.
The last line available is the showdown with Michigan on November 11. Penn State is a slight underdog at home, getting 1.5 points. This line is minimal, and there’s certainly no point in jumping on the Penn State football team when they’re getting less than a field goal. If you are more of a pessimist and think Michigan will replicate last year’s performance, it could be beneficial to take Michigan -1.5 as there is a chance the line moves in their direction. Michigan is the preseason favorite to win the Big Ten and I imagine they’ll be getting a lot of bets placed on them to win this game if they start the season hot as expected.
Most importantly, remember to gamble responsibly. These games aren’t for another 5+ months and placing a bet will tie up your money until then. But if you are going to bet, it is important to remember that college lines can swing rapidly. A line can quickly move from -10 to -14 and be the difference between winning and losing a bet.