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Illinois vs. Penn State prediction and odds for Tuesday, February 14 (Trust Nittany Lions as home underdogs)

By Reed Wallach

Feb 11, 2023; College Park, Maryland, USA; Penn State Nittany Lions guard Jalen Pickett (22) reacts after making three point shot along the bench during the second half against the Maryland Terrapins at Xfinity Center. Mandatory Credit: Tommy Gilligan-USA TODAY Sports
Feb 11, 2023; College Park, Maryland, USA; Penn State Nittany Lions guard Jalen Pickett (22) reacts after making three point shot along the bench during the second half against the Maryland Terrapins at Xfinity Center. Mandatory Credit: Tommy Gilligan-USA TODAY Sports /
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Penn State is in desperate need of some quality wins in Big Ten play, and it has a great opportunity at home against Illinois.

The Nittany Lions blew out Illinois in Champaign earlier this season, 74-59, as Penn State’s perimeter oriented attack overwhelmed the Illini, but have the tides turned and Brad Underwood’s team can score a road win?

PSU needs the win, but is the home underdog, can it come up clutch and keep themselves in the bubble conversation?

Let’s check out the odds:

Illinois vs. Penn State odds, spread and total

Illinois vs. Penn State prediction and pick

This is a great spot for the Nittany Lions as home underdogs. While the team has dropped four straight, three came on the road and one was in overtime to Wisconsin as 4.5-point favorites.

I believe the market has shifted too far against the Nittany Lions, who are 11-3 at home this season and have the compact defense to challenge the Illini offense.

Illinois is shooting below 30% from beyond the arc in Big Ten play and the compact Penn State defense has forced team’s into jump shooting ones all season.

The Nittany Lions are top 100 in average shot proximity, per Haslametrics, and Illinois is bottom half of the country in mid-range field goal percentage and outside the top 300 in 3-point percentage. Not to mention, Penn State is the best defensive rebounding team in the country, so there will be limited chances for the Illinois offense.

On the other side, Penn State’s methodical tempo limits possessions for opponents and their 3-point rate can make it hard for teams to keep up if the team is shooting well from the perimeter. The team shoots more than 47% of its shots from beyond the arc and hits them at over a 39% rate as the the roster surrounds versatile wing Jalen Pickett with a bunch of dead eye shooters.

This is a poor matchup for Illinois and I love grabbing Penn State as a home dog here. The team has the 27th best home court rating, per Haslametrics, as the team’s perimeter prowess clearly shows on their home court.

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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