Penn State Football: Predicting the outcome of the Rose Bowl

Chris Snyder (Wrestling)

I know what you’re thinking. Why should I even read a football prediction from someone who follows and writes about wrestling?

Predicting the outcome of any bowl game in the modern era of college football can be tricky. Between players opting out to get ready to the NFL, to unbalanced matchups due to how the conference stacks up nationally, to whether or not any of the teams really want to be there, it can be the ultimate exercise in futility. But I try to take a more analytical approach to my predictions.

And here’s my formula for how I look at each team:
-Worst loss
-Best win
-Biggest strength
-Biggest weakness
-Impact players opting out
-Does the team want to be there

No. 8 Utah Utes (10-3)

Worst loss – Utah 26 Florida 29

I realize this was Utah’s first game of the season and on the road, but Florida was not a good or even decent team at any point this season. The Gators barely beat a 1-11 USF team (31-28) and lost to Vanderbilt (31-24). It’s an absolute travesty Florida was ranked at any point this season.

Best win – Utah 47 USC 24 (Pac-12 Conference Championship)

This was actually the second time Utah beat USC during the season as the Utes prevailed 43-42 in their regular season matchup at home. Were these good wins? Sure, but USC doesn’t play a lick of defense (103rd in yards allowed) and the Utes have an explosive and well-balanced offense (17th in total offense). Not a great matchup for the Trojans.

Biggest strength – Balanced offense

As I just mentioned, Utah can be a dangerous team both in the air and on the ground. While they are middle of the pack in passing yards per game (45th 252.5 yards per game), they are one of the best rushing teams in the nation (10th 220.2 yards per game). Furthermore, they average roughly 31 pass attempts per game and 40 rushing attempts per game. It’s a tall task for anyone to stop Utah, let alone slow them down.

Biggest weakness – Rush defense and turnovers

In Utah’s three losses on the season, they gave up an average of 182 yards on the ground and they turned the ball over an average of two times per game. So, the Utes are susceptible in both areas which isn’t a great thing in big games.

Impact players opting out – Dalton Kincaid (TE) and Clark Phillips III (CB)

Not having the pass catching/blocking abilities of Dalton Kincaid and without the shutdown potential of Clark Phillips III are massive losses for this team. Utah has zero players on their roster who can fill in and immediately impact the game like these two.

Does the team want to be there? Of course, it’s the Rose Bowl.

No. 11 Penn State (10-2)

Worst loss – Penn State 17 Michigan 41

The Nittany Lions’ two losses on the season came against two teams who made the College Football Playoff. But the loss to Michigan was slightly worse than their loss to Ohio State due to the lopsided outcome. And the fact Penn State was actually leading the game 17-16 in the third quarter. But if there are ever “good” losses, these would fit in that category.

Best win – Penn State 35 Purdue 31

Woof. This was a product of Penn State’s schedule, and the fact the Big Ten West was a complete joke for much of the season. Heck every team in the Big Ten, outside of Michigan, Ohio State, and Penn State, were pretty bad.

Biggest strength – Taking care of the football/Forcing turnovers

Penn State’s offense is in the top 40 in both total yards (33rd) and in not turning the ball over (39th). Couple this with the defense being ranked 11th in terms of forcing turnovers and tied for 13th in total turnover margin (+9), and you have a team that doesn’t beat itself. Oh, and this also includes the one interception, four fumble turnover-fest when Northwestern visited Penn State in a tropical storm in early October.

Biggest weakness – Sean Clifford

Now before you start yelling at me through your computer screen, hear me out. This isn’t a referendum on whether Sean Clifford should have come back for his 6th season or if he should even be the starter. Rather this is to point out the Nittany Lions’ success is typically linked to how well Sean Clifford plays. Especially against better competition. If Penn State football fans get “Good” Sean Clifford on January 2nd, then I like their chances. But if they get “Bad” Sean Clifford? Forget about it. And at this point in his career, I would say it’s a coin flip on which one shows up.

Impact players opting out – Joey Porter Jr. (CB) and Parker Washington (WR)

I’m loosely using the term “opting out” when it comes to Joey Porter Jr. and Parker Washington. Because both of these players got injured late in the season and even if they were going to play, it’s highly doubtful they would be anywhere close to 100%. If there is a positive here, it’s that these are the only players we know of who aren’t suiting up for Penn State. The other positive is the team has already played several games with these difference makers on the sidelines, so the weight of them not being on the field has already been felt and adjusted to.

Does the team want to be there? Of course, it’s the Rose Bowl.

Okay, so now that I’ve laid everything out with how I look at bowl game matchups, let’s run this through the Worst-Game-Predictor-Of-All- Time-3000XL machine. And it’s spitting out this:

Utah has not played a team as balanced as Penn State, both on offense and defense. And Penn State has not beaten a team as good as Utah on the season. This game will come down to the play of the quarterbacks and which team can limit the other team on the ground. And while a “Bad” Sean Clifford appearance in Pasadena won’t mean a sure loss for Penn State, it definitely won’t make things easy. If one of the teams can force a momentum-altering turnover, then I think that will be the difference in the outcome. Which is why I have it …

Penn State 31 Utah 27