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Here is Penn State Football’s path to a New Year’s Six bowl game

By Alec Whitaker

GLENDALE, AZ - DECEMBER 30: Head coach James Franklin of the Penn State Nittany Lions cleans the PlayStation Fiesta Bowl trophy after defeating the Washington Huskies 35-28 at University of Phoenix Stadium on December 30, 2017 in Glendale, Arizona. (Photo by Jennifer Stewart/Getty Images)
GLENDALE, AZ - DECEMBER 30: Head coach James Franklin of the Penn State Nittany Lions cleans the PlayStation Fiesta Bowl trophy after defeating the Washington Huskies 35-28 at University of Phoenix Stadium on December 30, 2017 in Glendale, Arizona. (Photo by Jennifer Stewart/Getty Images) /
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PASADENA, CA – JANUARY 02: Quarterback Trace McSorley #9 of the Penn State Nittany Lions greets quarterback Sam Darnold #14 of the USC Trojans. (Photo by Harry How/Getty Images)
PASADENA, CA – JANUARY 02: Quarterback Trace McSorley #9 of the Penn State Nittany Lions greets quarterback Sam Darnold #14 of the USC Trojans. (Photo by Harry How/Getty Images) /

The Rose Bowl (Big Ten vs Pac-12)

Penn State football could actually return to the Rose Bowl and face the same USC it faced on New Year’s Day 2017. The path is a little complex, but not impossible.

Here’s the path:

  • Penn State wins out
  • The OSU/UM game is very close. Preferably OSU wins because it is the home team.
  • Ohio State then wins Big Ten championship
  • TCU loses to Baylor or in the Big 12 Championship (may not need to happen but better it does)
  • Georgia beats LSU in the SEC Championship
  •  USC loses to UCLA or in the Pac-12 Championship OR stays behind Michigan
  • The winner of the ACC stays behind Michigan in the rankings

In this scenario:

Playoff: Georgia, Ohio State, Tennessee & Michigan

Rose Bowl: Penn State vs Pac-12 winner

Orange Bowl: Alabama vs UNC/Clemson

Sugar Bowl: LSU vs TCU

Cotton Bowl: At-large vs G5

For this to happen, the Ohio State vs Michigan game needs to be close, either one score or goes to overtime. It’s preferable that Ohio State wins because it is the home team and road teams are forgiven more by the committee for close losses than home teams are. That should keep Michigan in the mix.

TCU losing would clear a space for Michigan. There’s a chance that the committee sides with Michigan over Tennessee and thus makes what TCU does somewhat irrelevant, but with wins over LSU and Alabama, Tennessee would likely get the nod. TCU losing is for the best.

USC losing to UCLA or losing in general, would help significantly because then every Pac-12 team would have at least two losses and that would eliminate the conference from the Playoff, opening a spot for Michigan.

Georgia winning the SEC makes it 13-0 and thus makes Tennessee’s only loss to the 13-0 SEC champs, it also stops LSU from having an argument for the Playoff.

What happens in the ACC may not matter. Winning the conference is important, but both Clemson and UNC have a loss to Notre Dame. That loss is not nearly as strong as Michigan’s road loss to Ohio State in a close game would be.

It’s probably better to root for UNC because its body of work so far is less impressive than Clemson’s, which isn’t all that impressive either.

UNC has played one-score games against App. State, Miami, Duke, Virginia, Wake Forest and Georgia State. Considering the Tar Heels are 9-1 and still ranked only No. 13, the committee is definitely looking at those games and not taking UNC seriously. Very unlikely UNC would make the Playoff.

Complicated, but the Rose Bowl is on the table for Penn State football.

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