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Here is Penn State Football’s path to a New Year’s Six bowl game

By Alec Whitaker

GLENDALE, AZ - DECEMBER 30: Head coach James Franklin of the Penn State Nittany Lions cleans the PlayStation Fiesta Bowl trophy after defeating the Washington Huskies 35-28 at University of Phoenix Stadium on December 30, 2017 in Glendale, Arizona. (Photo by Jennifer Stewart/Getty Images)
GLENDALE, AZ - DECEMBER 30: Head coach James Franklin of the Penn State Nittany Lions cleans the PlayStation Fiesta Bowl trophy after defeating the Washington Huskies 35-28 at University of Phoenix Stadium on December 30, 2017 in Glendale, Arizona. (Photo by Jennifer Stewart/Getty Images) /
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MIAMI GARDENS, FL – JANUARY 3: Quarterback Michael Robinson #12 of the Penn State Nittany Lions looks to pass. (Photo by: Doug Benc/Getty Images)
MIAMI GARDENS, FL – JANUARY 3: Quarterback Michael Robinson #12 of the Penn State Nittany Lions looks to pass. (Photo by: Doug Benc/Getty Images) /

The Orange Bowl: (ACC vs Big Ten, SEC or Notre Dame)

Making the Orange Bowl for the first time since the 2004-05 season would be a treat for Penn State football, but it may be difficult to pull off.

Here’s the path:

  • Penn State wins out
  • The loser of OSU/UM or TCU does not make the Playoff, opening the door for Tennessee
  • LSU or Alabama loses a remaining regular season game
  • LSU cannot beat Georgia in the SEC Championship

In this scenario:

Playoff: Georgia, Tennessee, OSU/UM winner & Pac-12 winner or Clemson

Rose Bowl: OSU/UM loser vs Pac-12 champ/runner up

Orange Bowl: Penn State vs Clemson/UNC

Sugar Bowl: LSU/Alabama vs TCU

Cotton Bowl: At-large vs G5

The chances of LSU or Alabama losing a regular season game is pretty slim. LSU plays UAB and Texas A&M while Alabama plays Austin Peavy and Auburn. Texas A&M upsetting LSU is the best chance, but it’s just because the other games offer practically a zero chance of an upset.

A loss by either of these teams would likely take them out of the NY6 discussion, while the team who finishes the regular season 10-2 would be locked into the Sugar Bowl. LSU losing to Georgia in the SEC Championship game would probably not hurt LSU’s chances at a NY6, as long as it finished the regular season 10-2.

If the Orange Bowl is the dream, Tennessee needs to make the Playoff then. The Vols missing the Playoff would put them, LSU and Alabama all in position for a NY6 Bowl, shutting out Penn State.

If LSU goes 10-2 and then beats Georgia in the SEC Championship, there’s a chance that LSU could actually make the Playoff with one of Georgia or Tennessee. That would also be an issue for Penn State Football, because it would keep four SEC teams in the Playoff/NY6 discussion (assuming Alabama goes 10-2), meaning no Orange Bowl. A 9-3 LSU team that knocks of Georgia in the SEC Championship could also come back into the picture and jump Penn State, once again meaning no Orange Bowl.

LSU beating Georgia in the SEC Championship would not help unless…

There is a wild scenario where LSU beats Georgia in the SEC Championship, the OSU/UM game is a blowout, TCU loses a game, USC loses to UCLA or in the Pac-12` championship and Clemson either loses or stays behind LSU.

In that case, Georgia, Tennessee and LSU could all make the Playoff along with OSU/UM winner. That would bump Alabama up to the Sugar Bowl and give Penn State the Orange Bowl. That is extremely unlikely though.

The Orange Bowl needs the least amount of things to happen, the problem is that they are the most unrealistic things.

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