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Here is Penn State Football’s path to a New Year’s Six bowl game

By Alec Whitaker

GLENDALE, AZ - DECEMBER 30: Head coach James Franklin of the Penn State Nittany Lions cleans the PlayStation Fiesta Bowl trophy after defeating the Washington Huskies 35-28 at University of Phoenix Stadium on December 30, 2017 in Glendale, Arizona. (Photo by Jennifer Stewart/Getty Images)
GLENDALE, AZ - DECEMBER 30: Head coach James Franklin of the Penn State Nittany Lions cleans the PlayStation Fiesta Bowl trophy after defeating the Washington Huskies 35-28 at University of Phoenix Stadium on December 30, 2017 in Glendale, Arizona. (Photo by Jennifer Stewart/Getty Images) /
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ARLINGTON, TEXAS – DECEMBER 28: Sean Clifford #14 of the Penn State Nittany Lions. (Photo by Tom Pennington/Getty Images)
ARLINGTON, TEXAS – DECEMBER 28: Sean Clifford #14 of the Penn State Nittany Lions. (Photo by Tom Pennington/Getty Images) /

The Cotton Bowl (At Large vs G5 At Large)

The last New Year’s Six bowl game that Penn State was in was the Cotton Bowl back in 2019. This bowl places an at-large team against the highest ranked Group of Five school. That significantly lowers Penn State’s chances of making the bowl.

Here’s the path:

  • Penn State wins out
  • The loser of OSU/UM does not make the Playoff and goes to the Rose Bowl
  • TCU goes undefeated and makes the Playoff over the loser of OSU/UM
  • Georgia beats LSU in the SEC Championship game
  • USC wins the Pac-12 Championship but does not go to the Playoff
  • Clemson wins the ACC Championship but does not go to the Playoff
  • Every Pac-12 team outside of USC stays behind Penn State in the rankings

In this scenario:

Playoff: Georgia, TCU, Tennessee & OSU/UM winner

Rose Bowl: USC vs OSU/UM loser

Orange Bowl: Alabama vs Clemson

Sugar Bowl: LSU vs Kansas State

Cotton Bowl: Penn State vs G5

Clemson winning the ACC over UNC helps because it should kick UNC, who is currently ranked behind Penn State, out of the NY6 discussion. If UNC beats Clemson, who is currently ranked ahead of Penn State, there’s a chance both stay ahead of Penn State. In that case, one could get the Orange Bowl, while one gets the Cotton Bowl. It’s unlikely either of these teams jump Tennessee for the final playoff spot.

This really comes down to the bowl committee deciding to take a third Big Ten team (Penn State) over a second Pac-12 team to play in the NY6 bowls. The loser of Oregon/Utah this upcoming weekend should be eliminated from the discussion with a third loss, but the winner of that game, along with Washington who should go 10-2, become big issues. USC beating UCLA this upcoming weekend would give UCLA its third loss, eliminating it from the discussion as well.

If you’re asking why USC making the Playoff would be an issue in this scenario, it’s because that would keep Tennessee out of the Playoff. Meaning Tennessee gets the Sugar Bowl and LSU and Alabama, who are both ranked ahead of Penn State, would move back a rung and get the Orange and Cotton bowls most likely.

Penn State to the Citrus Bowl against Ole Miss if that happens.

Even in this scenario, it’s not a guarantee for Penn State Football because a two-loss Pac-12 team could still be picked over the Nittany Lions. Keep an eye on teams like Washington and the Utah/Oregon winner.

The fact that any conference could make the Cotton Bowl hurts and helps Penn State Football at the same time.

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