Penn State football: Nittany Lions have a path to 10 wins

The goods, bads, and worsts for Penn State football

With all of this being said, there will still be bad moments with the good. Penn State’s floor, like last season, is 7-5 this year. That would not go over well with recruits, the fans, and the media, and would justify calls to not fund Penn State’s NIL program due to a lack of results. Though this NIL claim is absurd, it has been brought up by a sizable portion of Penn State’s fan base and is something PSU cannot afford to let hang around.

The ceiling for Penn State, in my mind, is 11-2. I cannot picture a world in which Penn State football has a better record than 10-2 in the regular season; adding a bowl win to get to 11-2 again is about as high as I can see PSU getting.

The key this year will be how long Penn State can go without a loss. As seen in many years under James Franklin, the first loss of the season can turn a competitive Penn State squad into a completely different team. If the Nittany Lions head into Michigan 5-0, fans can breathe a sigh of relief. Although I expect Minnesota to be competitive this year, Penn State gets the Gophers in a white out, which should help momentum stay on the Nittany Lions’ side.

Then, of course, there is a grey area–the 9-10 win range. This is the range that I expect Penn State to fall in–if the Nittany Lions can knock off Purdue and Auburn in the first few weeks of the season, this is the season’s most likely outcome. It gives breathing room for losses to Ohio State and Michigan and an upset loss to any team on the schedule.

After a disheartening 7-6 season last year, Penn State will need at least nine wins in the coming year. I’d say 9-4 is on the low end of my expectations, but anything over eight wins will be a good start for bigger things to come in the following years.