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Penn State Wrestling: Bold predictions for the NCAA Championships

By Chris Snyder

Penn State's Aaron Brooks is introduced before his match in the finals at 184 pounds during the third session of the Big Ten Wrestling Championships, Sunday, March 6, 2022, at Pinnacle Bank Arena in Lincoln, Nebraska.220306 Big Ten Wr 040 Jpg
Penn State's Aaron Brooks is introduced before his match in the finals at 184 pounds during the third session of the Big Ten Wrestling Championships, Sunday, March 6, 2022, at Pinnacle Bank Arena in Lincoln, Nebraska.220306 Big Ten Wr 040 Jpg /
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Carter Starocci, Penn State Wrestling
Penn State’s Carter Starocci (Image via HawkCentral) /

Bold Prediction – No. 3

Carter Starocci or Max Dean will pin an opponent in the semifinals

I know.

This is sort of an oddly specific “Bold Prediction”, but it’s still a prediction and it certainly is bold. Simply based on facts.

It’s no secret Carter Starocci and Max Dean, while supremely amazing athletes and wrestlers aren’t exactly pinning machines. Especially when they go toe to toe against higher-level talent in their weight class.

Keep in mind, this isn’t a knock on either guy, I just want to point it out.

In his career at Penn State, Carter Starocci has four falls in 34 total matches for a 12% pin rate. And Max Dean has pinned his opponent 12 times in 88 career matches for a 14% pin rate (both of these stats do not include unattached tournaments and invitationals).

For comparisons, Zain Retherford had 54 falls in 130 matches for a pin rate of 42% and Bo Nickal recorded 59 falls in 123 career matches for a ridiculous 47% pin rate.

Am I cherry-picking some stats from two of Penn State’s all-time greats? You better believe it.

And is it fair to give Carter Starocci a low pin rate when he wrestled a shortened season last year and hasn’t even finished this year? No, it isn’t remotely fair.

Does it mean my prediction isn’t bold? It sure doesn’t, because the needle on the prediction meter is still pegged at “Bold”.

Looking back at Starocci, if he makes it to the semifinals then his most likely opponent will be No. 4 Hayden Hidlay from NC State. Iowa’s No. 5 Michael Kemerer is also in the top side of the bracket but I just don’t see his shoulder holding up in the tournament.

Hidlay made the giant leap from 157 to 174 this year and his season hasn’t been completely smooth. In a regular-season dual this year against UNC, Hidlay was pinned by the No. 10 seed Clay Lautt. So the bump up to 174 may present issues for Hayden in terms of the size and reach of his opponents. And everyone knows what happens when Starocci gets his hands on you.

Maybe this time Carter turns it into an amazing pin to punch his ticket to the finals and give Penn State some valuable bonus points along the way.

Turning our attention back to Dean, his most likely opponent in the semifinals with either be No. 5 Nino Bonaccorsi from Pitt or No. 4 Patrick Brucki from Michigan. Bonaccorsi hasn’t been pinned since 2018 and Brucki was last pinned in the 2019 NCAA Championships.

Do you know who pinned him? That’s right, Bo Nickal.

Max Dean will be next? Maybe?

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