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By Joe Summers
After an impressive 62-58 win over Michigan State snapped a three-game losing streak, the 10-12 Penn State Nittany Lions host the 12-11 Minnesota Gophers today at 4:00 PM EST. WynnBET has the Nittany Lions as 5.5-point favorites and -230 on the moneyline (bet $23 to profit $10) while the over/under is set at 128.5 for this Penn State vs Minnesota matchup.
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This is how we’re betting this game:
Penn State vs Minnesota Prediction
The Nittany Lions pulled off a huge win in their last game and are now 3-1 against the spread (ATS) in their last four. But they’ve been incredible at home, covering in seven straight contests. They’re 5-2 outright in that stretch, and now get a shot at revenge against a Gophers squad that beat them 76-70 just five days ago.
Minnesota is 5-5 ATS in their last 10 and have alternated covering and not every game over that span. They failed to cover the spread in their last game, so that must mean they’re going to cover today, right?
If only it were that easy. The Gophers are excellent at protecting the basketball and rank 51st nationally in 3-point shooting. But they’re one of the worst offensive rebounding teams in the country and don’t shoot many free throws, two important elements when trying to win on the road.
Penn State will try to attack a Minnesota 2-point defense that is just 257th in defensive shooting percentage. Since the Nittany Lions have a large advantage on the glass, they should be able to push the tempo and try to score in transition like the first game.
The total feels too low in this one. With the Gophers able to shoot from beyond the arc and the Nittany Lions able to score inside, I see the game going over – especially when you remember that these teams put up 146 points five days ago.
Only one other time this year has a Penn State home game had a total this low (Dec. 8th vs Wagner) and it went over. The over is also 9-4-1 in Minnesota’s games as an underdog.
I’m on the over 128.5 (-110) and expect to see some points today.
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