Why Penn State Basketball won’t make NIT: It has nothing to do with performance
By Evan Smith
What are realistic expectations for Penn State Basketball’s finish?
For Penn State Basketball, finishing 3-3 in those final six games is probably the most likely outcome.
The Nittany Lions will likely be slightly favored in two (Minnesota, Northwestern), heavily favored in one (Nebraska), slight underdogs in one (at Maryland), and significant underdogs in two (at Illinois, at Rutgers).
Where would a .500 finish over the final stretch leave this PSU team?
Sitting at 10-12 (5-9, tied for 11th in the conference), splitting the remaining six games would not be enough.
Penn State Basketball must win four games to move their record to 14-14, and an impressive 9-11 in conference play.
Even though that would likely only move them to 10th place in the conference, the key is achieving a .500 record. As long as the Lions win one game in the Big Ten Tournament, they would guarantee a .500 or better record.
Why does this matter?
As we wrote about here, the NIT basically requires a .500 record. Finishing 4-2 and adding one conference tournament win gets the Nittany Lions to that record.
But, that will require ‘outplaying the odds’, as we discussed above.
Holding serve at home is far from a guarantee (we’ll know far more after tomorrow’s game versus Minnesota) but winning at Maryland, Illinois or Rutgers is VERY difficult. Unfortunately, winning four of 6 is just not all that likely. And, even if achieved, that likely means playing in the 7 v 10 match-up in the conference tournament, which means PSU would be an underdog to win that one conference tournament game needed to finish at .500. But that’s not the real reason Penn State isn’t going to make the NIT.