Is Penn State Basketball…an NCAA Tournament Team?!?
By Evan Smith
Penn State Basketball has exceeded early expectations, pulled off a pair of conference victories, but are the Nittany Lions tracking towards an NCAA Tournament berth?
After starting the season relatively slowly, Penn State basketball has put together back-to-back conference wins. Are they looking at a potential NCAA Tournament run?
March Madness wasn’t on anyone’s radar as the Nittany Lions finished their non-conference schedule at 5-3 without really a marquee win.
Penn State Basketball’s ‘best’ win by name brand was neutral site vs Oregon State (3-10). While the Pac-12 is a solid conference, the Beavers are really not a good team this year. Metric-wise, the best win is probably home over Wagner (6-2), which isn’t exactly going to draw attention to their resume.
Pair those lack of quality wins with losses neutral site to LSU (13-1), home vs Miami (7-5), and getting creamed at UMass (7-6) in the ‘Trent Buttrick Revenge game‘, post-season basketball wasn’t on anyone’s radar.
After Penn State opened conference play with December losses at Michigan State and when Ohio State and Jamari Wheeler came to the Bryce Jordan Center, the Lions were tied for last in the conference at 0-2.
But, then something weird happened … Penn State upset the Hoosiers of Indiana here at home. Then, they followed it up with a conference road win at Northwestern. Two wins over two teams either in or on the bubble of the NCAA Tournament.
Penn State Basketball (7-5, 2-2) currently finds itself tied (and technically ahead of with the head-to-head tiebreak win) for sixth place in the conference standings with Indiana. The same team that 0-2 and just five days ago is now in the upper half of one of the, if not the, toughest conference in the nation. And riding some serious momentum.
No. 3 Purdue (12-2) comes to town Saturday, coached by Micah Shrewsberry’s mentor, Matt Painter.
If Penn State Basketball can shock the world, everyone in State College should start humming that March Madness theme.
But, even if Penn State loses (and they’ll be underdogs for sure), is a legitimate run to the postseason in play for the Nittany Lions under Shrewsberry’s first season?
The next five games include home match-ups vs Rutgers, Minnesota and a return trip to Indiana sandwiched between trips to Colombus and Iowa City. Win three of those games, Penn State would sit at 10-8, 5-5 in conference with the second half of the conference slate remaining.
If Penn State can finish .500 in this incredibly difficult conference, their record would only be 15-13, which isn’t incredible at first glance.
However, the metrics will be incredibly favorable to the Nittany Lions.
Penn State has already seen significant increases in both their NET (86) and KenPom (72) rankings after these two wins. At a minimum, the NIT should come calling (after screwing the Lions last year).
Find a way to get a game or two over .500 would likely mean a top six or seven finish in the conference and yes, improbably, a possible NCAA Tournament team.