James Franklin needs to learn how to add in multiples of seven

Arguably the biggest difference between Penn State, Michigan on Saturday

For any football program to have success in college football, they have to be adding in multiples of seven. Period. End of discussion.

Let’s take a look at how Penn State fared Saturday when they got the ball to at least Michigan’s 25-yard line.

Yard line -> Points
15 -> 3
2 -> 0
25 -> 3
25 -> 0
0 (td) -> 8
13 -> 3

Penn State took six trips inside Michigan’s 25-yard line and came out with a total of 17 points. Conversely, let’s see how Michigan did.

Yard line -> Points
0 (td) -> 7
0 (td) -> 7
0 (td) -> 7

Michigan had only three trips inside of Penn State’s 25-yard line (not including the final drive-to-end regulation) and scored 21 points.

For anyone who would ever listen to my incessant ramblings about college football in the past decade, they would have heard a common statement from me. You must add by seven in college football.

If one side of the ball has an advantage over the other, it’s the offense.

Innovations in the game over the past two decades have given this advantage to the offense. From changes in schemes (spread, spread run, read option, RPO, etc.), to changes in personnel and formations, to changes in tempo, to even changes in how the game is officiated. All of this squarely gives a decided advantage to the offense.

And I haven’t even mentioned how much mathematics and “expected points added” calculations affect what a coach should do in any given situation throughout the game. Because these have created a dynamic shift in football to where it “appears” coaches have become more aggressive and are going for it on fourth down at a pace in which coaches from 30 years ago would never have imagined.

All of these factors thrown into a box and tied shut with a giant bow boil down to one thing. Kicking field goals generally do not make sense unless they are absolutely necessary based on the yard line, down and distance, score, and time remaining in the game.

If you have watched enough Nittany Lion Football under James Franklin, then you have probably noticed many times in which it would have made more sense to either go for it on fourth down or change the style in play-calling leading up to the fourth down. And what I mean by “change the style in play-calling” is simple. If you understand how paramount it is to score touchdowns, then you understand how important the play calling is on second and third down as this drastically affects what would potentially be left for fourth down.

Let’s take a look at some of the third-down play calls from today prior to Penn State attempting a field goal.

3rd & 4 at Michigan 15 -> Clifford sacked and a loss of 9 yards
4th & Goal at Michigan 2 -> Fake FG pass from holder to kicker (I’m including this because of how egregious of a call it was)
3rd & 10 at Michigan 25 -> Clifford sacked and a loss of 9 yards
3rd & 8 at Michigan 28 -> Clifford pass completed for a gain of 3 yards
3rd & 7 at Michigan 13 -> Clifford pass incomplete

So as I alluded to before, what you do prior to fourth down really affects everything. By looking at the plays above, does it appear the coaching staff is trying to set everything up so the chains continue to move until they get the ball into the end zone?

Oh, and what happened today when Penn State had the ball in Michigan territory for manageable fourth downs?

You’re right! They actually had some success.

The Nittany Lions converted a fourth and four at the Michigan-35, a fourth and two at the Michigan 22, and a fourth and two from the Michigan two. All in the same drive and all of it culminated in a touchdown for Penn State.

Weird how that works, right?

So now what for Penn State Football?