3 Steps for Penn State Basketball to get their “One Shining Moment”
By Evan Smith
Some luck on their side …
Penn State Basketball haters don’t want to read this, but the Nittany Lions are incredibly unlucky, period.
Let’s look at the data, according to the great Ken Pomeroy (out of over 350 teams)
2021 — 286th in luck (40th overall)
2020 — 149th in luck (26th overall)
2019 — 343rd in luck (43rd overall)
2018 — 296th in luck (19th overall)
2017 — 220th in luck (87th overall)
From his website, defining how luck is evaluated in terms of metrics:
"“Luck is defined as the deviation in winning percentage between a team’s actual record and their expected record using the correlated gaussian method. The luck factor has nothing to do with the rating calculation, but a team that is very lucky (positive numbers) will tend to be rated lower by my system than their record would suggest.”"
First off, Penn State Basketball was a top-50 team the last four years. Wow. But, look at that atrocious luck!
Maybe Shrewsberry can bring some luck from West Lafayette, because with just average luck, Penn State Basketball could have been an NCAA Tournament team the last four years!