Can Penn State Wrestling take home 2021 National Championship?

Here’s a quick breakdown of where things stand for Penn State Wrestling during Saturday afternoon of the NCAA Wrestling Championship tournament

What can Penn State Wrestling do to pull off the huge upset and take home the 2021 NCAA Championship?

Is it even possible?

Let’s find out.

Team Standings

1st – Iowa 122.0

Championship Bracket – Finals
Spencer Lee – 125
Jaydin Eierman – 141
Michael Kemerer – 174

Consolation Bracket
Austin DeSanto – 133 3rd place match
Kaleb Young – 157 7th place match
Jacob Warner – 197 3rd place match
Tony Cassioppi – 285 3rd place match

2nd (tie) – Penn State 94.5

Championship Bracket – Finals
Roman Bravo-Young – 133
Nick Lee – 141
Carter Starocci – 174
Aaron Brooks – 184

Consolation Bracket
Michael Beard – 197 7th place match
Greg Kerkvliet – 285 7th place match

Oklahoma State is currently tied with Penn State for 2nd place, however they only have 2 wrestlers in the finals and 3 wrestlers still alive in the consolation bracket. For this breakdown I’m only going to compare what Penn State has to do to try and pull off the seemingly impossible and surpass Iowa.

For those of you who are fairly new to wrestling tournament team scoring, here’s a quick breakdown:

Placement Points
1st place: 16 points
2nd place: 12 points
3rd place: 10 points
4th place: 9 points
5th place: 7 points
6th place: 6 points
7th place: 4 points
8th place: 3 points

These are simply the points awarded for your final finish in the tournament.

Additionally, the current team points are already including any guaranteed placement points for each team’s respective wrestler.

For example: Roman Bravo-Young is already being credited with 12 placement points as the worst he can do is finish 2nd, which is awarded 12 points.

Advancement Points
Each advancement in championship bracket: 1 point
Each advancement in consolation bracket: 0.5 point

For every match you win in the championship bracket, you receive 1 point. If you lose in the championship bracket and drop down to the consolation, every match you win there is then awarded 0.5 points.

Bonus Points
Each fall, forfeit, default, disqualification: 2 points
Each tech fall (w/ near fall points): 1.5 points
Each tech fall (w/o near fall points): 1 point
Each major decision: 1 point

Bonus points are very important when it comes to each team’s individual score. These points can add up, and in a hurry. Any bonus points wrestlers can snag later in the rounds is even more important as they’re typically harder to come by.

Alright, so based on this plethora of information, here’s a quick look at Penn State’s best case (realistic) scenarios in their remaining matches in both the championship bracket and in the consolation bracket.

Finals
133 – Roman Bravo-Young beats Daton Fix in a decision
Points: 16 pp + 1 ap = 17

141 – Nick Lee beats Jaydin Eierman in a decision
Points: 16 pp + 1 ap = 17

174 – Carter Starocci beats Michael Kemerer in a decision
Points: 16 pp + 1 ap = 17

184 – Aaron Brooks beats Trent Hidlay in a major decision
Points: 16 pp + 1 ap + 1 bp = 18

7th Place Matches
197 – Michael Beard beats Stephen Buchanan in a decision
Points: 4 pp + 0.5 ap = 4.5

285 – Greg Kerkvliet beats Tate Orndorff in a major decision
Points: 4 pp + 0.5 ap + 1 bp = 5.5

Total Team Points: 119.5

Based on these results let’s see how Iowa’s points would look.

Finals
125 – Spencer Lee beats Brandon Courtney in a decision
Points: 16 pp + 1 ap = 17

141 – Jaydin Eierman loses to Nick Lee
Points: 12

174 – Michael Kemerer loses to Carter Starocci
Points: 12

3rd Place Matches
133 – Austin DeSanto loses to Korbin Myers
Points: 9

197 – Jacob Warner loses to Myles Amine
Points: 9

285 – Tony Cassioppi loses to Cohlton Schultz
Points: 9

7th Place Match
157 – Kaleb Young loses to Wyatt Sheets
Points: 3

Total Team Points: 127.0

Answer

That’s not much to really look at here. Outside of all six Penn State wrestlers winning each of their matches by fall, it’s going to be virtually impossible to knock Iowa off the throne.

I would still love for the brackets to turn out this way and make Iowa and Tom Brands sweat through their shirts until the bitter end!

Tune in at 7 p.m. tonight to watch the madness of the finals unfold on ESPN.