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Penn State Basketball: B is for Bubble — and ‘Beat Sparty’

By Evan Smith

Feb 5, 2021; University Park, Pennsylvania, USA; Penn State Nittany Lions guard Myles Dread (2) reacts following the competition of the game against the Maryland Terrapins at Bryce Jordan Center. Penn State defeated Maryland 55-50. Mandatory Credit: Matthew OHaren-USA TODAY Sports
Feb 5, 2021; University Park, Pennsylvania, USA; Penn State Nittany Lions guard Myles Dread (2) reacts following the competition of the game against the Maryland Terrapins at Bryce Jordan Center. Penn State defeated Maryland 55-50. Mandatory Credit: Matthew OHaren-USA TODAY Sports /
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Penn State Basketball heads to East Lansing to take on Michigan State in an important bubble match-up Tuesday night at 7:00 pm on ESPN2.

The Nittany Lions hold a 7-8 record, but has recently been getting a lot of love as a “metric darling” making a run at a NCAA Tournament berth despite their record.

Now, our VBR readers have known this for a few weeks.

We’ve discussed Penn State tournament hopes multiple times, realizing that Penn State is so much greater than their record.  We said the Nittany Lions just needed one of three in their stretch at Ohio State, vs Wisconsin and at Wisconsin.  Check on that one.  We said PSU needed two of three of vs Maryland, at Michigan State and vs Nebraska.  One for one the good guys in blue so far.

Tonight’s game is hugely important because it’s a good opportunity to get a road win, something our resume is lacking.  Let’s dig deeper into our resume:

Penn State is the fourth team out right now in Joe Lundardi’s Bracketology.  The Lions peaked as the first team out after our win versus Maryland but every other bubble team has one since then, unfortunately.

KenPom:  30 (Michigan State is 62)

NET Ranking: 29 (Michigan State is 91)

Conference Standings: 10th at 4-7  (Michigan State is 12th at 3-7)

The conference standings are very important from a NCAA Tournament selection perspective.

Because Penn State’s record is awful, they need to remain ahead of other bubble teams, like Maryland in 11th (one game back but we have the tiebreak) and Michigan State, tonight’s opponent in 12th (half game back, tiebreaker determined tonight).  Just ahead of us are Minnesota (5-7) and Indiana (5-6).

If Penn State could sneak into the 8th or 9th spot at the end of the year, the tournament selection committee will have to respect that placement despite the record.  And hopefully they’re looking at this:

Ken Pomeroy stated that Penn State has played the toughest schedule of all time since he’s been tracking schedules (2001).  Think about that for a minute.  The. Hardest. Schedule. EVER.

Another key will be if Sandy Barbour can reschedule the Drexel game.  That one game could be the difference between a .500 record or not.  If anyone has her number, please call her and beg to get that game played or schedule a replacement out of conference game!

While Penn State is a 2.5 point underdog tonight, this is the best chance for a real road win in conference this year.  A win tonight and we may find ourselves in the tournament when tomorrow’s Bracketology is released.  And we’d be .500.  What a weird, weird year. #trusttheclimb

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