Big Ten Bowl Preview: 2019 Citrus Bowl

Penn State will play the Kentucky Wildcats in the Citrus Bowl on New Year’s Day

In the next best bowl game after the New Year’s Six, the James Franklin led Penn State Nittany Lions and the Mark Stoops led Kentucky Wildcats will battle in the Citrus Bowl for a chance at a 10-win season.

Overview

While the Citrus Bowl isn’t a New Year’s Six Bowl, there are still several interesting storylines going into this game. The first major storyline is the last career college football game of Penn State quarterback Trace McSorley. McSorley is one of the best quarterbacks in Penn State history, as he won more games than any quarterback in the history of the program, including a Big Ten Championship victory.

The next major storyline is that both teams are trying to get their 10th win of the season. With a  win for Penn State, it will mark three straight 10-win seasons for the Nittany Lions, something they haven’t achieved since the 1980-1982 seasons.

Kentucky hasn’t won 10 games in a single season since 1977. A victory for Kentucky would be the third time in program history that they have reached the 10-win mark.

Game: Citrus Bowl
Location: Camping World Stadium, Orlando, Florida
Teams: No. 12 Penn State  (6-3 Big Ten) vs. No. 14 Kentucky (5-3 SEC)
Date: 1/1
Time: 1 p.m. ET
TV: ESPN

In addition, the Citrus Bowl will feature a few NFL Draft prospects on each team. Penn State cornerback Amani Oruwariye is projected to be selected within the first two rounds. Running back Miles Sanders and defensive end Shareef Miller also are on NFL radars, but will wait until after the Citrus Bowl to announce their decision of whether or not they will declare for the draft. Furthermore, Trace McSorley will be one of the eight quarterbacks attending the Senior Bowl in late January.

On the Kentucky side of the ball, LB Josh Allen is likely going to be a top-15 pick in the NFL Draft. Running back Benny Snell has also announced that he’ll declare for the NFL Draft following the Citrus Bowl.

Keys For Penn State

The two main keys for Penn State in this game are the health of Trace McSorley, and the ability to stop the run. Penn State’s offense has been a major issue for the second half of the season following the injury to Trace McSorley’s knee.

Penn State only put up only seven points against Michigan, 22 against Wisconsin, and 20 against Rutgers before scoring 38 points against Maryland to end the season. With Trace McSorley’s injury, he was unable to run the ball as well as he did prior to the injury. This is a huge problem considering Penn State’s offense relies on the read option.

McSorley’s knee also caused him to struggle with his accuracy. Since he’s had over a month to rest, I expect Trace McSorley to look better than he has for most of the season. It doesn’t matter how good Kentucky’s defense is, McSorley is hard to stop.

Penn State ranks 28th in the nation in rushing yards per game (208.6), and Kentucky ranks 44th in rushing yards allowed per game. Kentucky ranks 16th in passing yards allowed per game, so expect Penn State to try and established the run early in this game. I wouldn’t be surprised if we see a lot of play action as well once the run is established.

In terms of the Penn State defense, they need to stop the Kentucky running game. Kentucky ranks 34th in the nation in rushing yards per game with 201.3. This doesn’t only include running back Benny Snell, but it includes quarterback Terry Wilson who ran for 518 yards and four touchdowns this year. The Penn State defense needs to contain Wilson as well as stopping Snell.

Terry Wilson isn’t a great passing quarterback, so Penn State needs to get pressure on him, like they have on nearly every quarterback they’ve faced this season. Wilson is a true freshman, and has thrown eight interceptions compared to only 11 touchdowns this season. Penn State averages 3.58 sacks per game this season, which is the best in the nation. Expect Penn State Defensive Coordinator Brent Pry to send a ton of pressure, and force turnovers on Terry Wilson.

Keys For Kentucky

The main key for Kentucky is to exploit the weakness of Penn State, which is their rushing defense. Penn State ranks 72nd in the nation in rushing yards allowed per game at 168.4.

Luckily for the Wildcats, they excel in the rushing game with running back Benny Snell, and quarterback Terry Wilson. Kentucky needs to run for over 250 rushing yards in this game to have a chance at winning.

Running for this many yards would not only put points on the board for Kentucky, but it would keep Penn State’s offense off the field for a large amount of time. Controlling time of possession is crucial for the Wildcats because we know this defense is extremely good.

I expect the Kentucky defense to play a good game, but Penn State’s offense with a healthy Trace McSorley may be hard to completely shut down. Where else can Kentucky gain an edge? Special teams.

Penn State’s special teams have been outplayed in several games this year. It all starts with the onside kicks they have allowed to be recovered constantly. Then it goes to trick plays like Iowa scoring a touchdown on a fake field goal. If Kentucky can make a massive play on special teams, I think it will tremendously help their chances.

Prediction:

I think that Penn State is the more talented team here, and that the Nittany Lions will rally around Trace McSorley to pull out this win. Expect a game that’s a lot less entertaining than the 2016 Rose Bowl and 2017 Fiesta Bowl though.

Penn State: 27
Kentucky: 17