Big Ten Bowl Preview: 2018 Peach Bowl

The Michigan Wolverines will take on the Florida Gators in the first New Year’s Six Bowl, the Peach Bowl

After a disappointing loss vs. Ohio State to crush their playoff hopes, Jim Harbaugh and Michigan will look bounce back at Mercedes Benz Stadium against Dan Mullen’s Florida Gators in the Peach Bowl.

Overview:

The Peach Bowl is a very intriguing matchup for college football fans just hours before the beginning of the College Football Playoff. It features two teams that had almost polar opposite stories this season.

Michigan fell short of expectations, as they had an opportunity to finally play in their first Big Ten Championship game under Jim Harbaugh. However, their Big Ten Championship and College Football Playoff dreams were smashed by Ohio State the last week of the regular season as the Buckeyes hung 62 points on the top-ranked Michigan defense.

Florida exceeded expectations in Dan Mullen’s first year as head coach, as they won nine games. This included a statement win vs. LSU, who was ranked fifth in the country at the time. The Gators are making their first New Year’s Six Bowl appearance since 2012, where they lost 23-33 to Louisville in the Sugar Bowl.

Game: Peach Bowl
Location: Mercedes Benz Stadium, Atlanta, Georgia
Teams: No. 7 Michigan (10-2, 7-1 Big Ten) vs No. 10 Florida (9-3, 5-3 SEC)
Date: 12/29
Time: 12 p.m. ET
TV: ESPN

Keys for Michigan:

In order for Michigan to win this game, they need to play the same game they’ve played all season. They need to rely on their defense, which ranks first in the FBS in yards allowed per game. They also need to dominate time of possession, which they rank fourth in the FBS.

Relying on their defense is going to be tougher, as defensive end Rashan Gary, and linebacker Devin Bush will miss this game to prepare for the NFL Draft. Gary and Bush have been two of Michigan’s best defensive players this season, and a key to stopping the run.

Florida’s rushing offense ranks 27th in FBS, as the gators average 209.5 rushing yards per game, compared to their passing offense which ranks 76th in FBS, as they average 217.2 passing yards per game. Clearly, the Gators offense is more run dependent, so Michigan will need to find a way to halt it. A major part of the Wolverine’s 15th-ranked run defense is senior defensive lineman Chase Winovich, who has 32 tackles for loss and 12.5 sacks combined between the last two seasons.

I don’t anticipate Florida doing much at all through the air, as Michigan has the second best pass defense in the country allowing only 145.9 passing yards per game.

In terms of controlling the time of possession, it’s going to come a lot harder to Michigan than normal. Senior running back Karan Higdon won’t play in this game, as he will also be preparing for the NFL Draft.

Higdon led Michigan with 1178 rushing yards and 10 rushing touchdowns this season. Filling the void for Higdon’s absence will be junior running back Chris Evans, who has ran for 403 yards and four touchdowns on 74 carries this season.

If Michigan can stop the run and control time of possession, which I think they will, they should have absolutely no problem winning this game.

Keys for Florida:

Florida’s path to victory is going to be a lot tougher than Michigan’s, simply because they’re just not as good of a football team. However, if I’m Dan Mullen, I’m running the football early and often in this game to test Michigan’s run defense with Rashan Gary and Devin Bush.

Florida running backs Lamical Perine and Jordan Scarlett are going to have to be ready to carry the ball a ton. They each are averaging 5.9 yards per carry this year, so they’re capable of moving the ball downfield against a solid Michigan defense.

Another important aspect for the Gators is winning the turnover battle. They can’t let Michigan control the game by having seven or eight minute drives ending in a touchdown. Florida forced 24 turnovers this season, tied for13th in the FBS this season.

A key to the turnover battle is defensive end Jachai Polite, who has forced five fumbles this season, which is first in the FBS. In addition, Polite has 11 sacks and 18 tackles for loss this season.

Winning the turnover battle is also going to mean that Gators quarterback Feleipe Franks doesn’t throw an interception. He only has six this season, and hasn’t thrown an interception since October 27 against Georgia. However, facing Michigan’s passing defense is going to be a challenge.

If Florida can exploit the weaknesses created by the players sitting out for Michigan by running early and often on the offensive side of the ball, and stopping the run on the defensive side of the ball, I think they have a decent shot to win this game.

Prediction:

If I were a Michigan fan, I’d be nervous that Higdon, Bush, and Gary are all going to be out for this game. However, I think that they’ll come out with something to prove after getting embarrassed by Ohio State a month ago.

I expect Jim Harbaugh to make proper adjustments to account for the missing players, allowing Michigan to play their normal game of being dominant on defense, and controlling the clock. If they can do that, and I think they will, Michigan will win this game by 14-17 points.

Michigan: 31
Florida: 17