Big Ten Bowl Preview: 2017 San Diego County Credit Union Holiday Bowl
By Corey Hunter
Luke Falk and the high-flying Washington State Cougars look to cap their season with a win as they take on Brian Lewerke and the upstart Michigan State Spartans.
Both teams enter the Holiday Bowl looking to finish the season with 10 victories. For Michigan State, a 10-win season would punctuate a tremendous turn-around after a disappointing 2016 season. For Washington State a 10-win season would be the first for Wazzu since 2003. In
The Holiday Bowl should be one of the most entertaining bowl games outside of the New Years Six.
Game: San Diego County Credit Union Holiday Bowl
Teams: #16 Michigan State Spartans (9-3, 7-2 Big Ten) vs. #18 Washington State Cougars (9-3, 6-3 Pac-12)
Time: December 28th, 9:00 PM
Location: SDCCU Stadium, San Diego, California
TV: FS1
Michigan State Overview
Which team was the biggest surprise this year in the Big Ten? Outside of Purdue, the Michigan State Spartans would garner many votes.
Head Coach Mark Dantonio and company have parlayed a sub-par 2016 into a near division-winning squad this season. The Spartans first caught the eye of many by defeating No. 7 Michigan 14-10 at the “Big House”. A few weeks later they followed up the Michigan victory by defeating No. 7 Penn State 27-24 after a three-hour rain delay. A lopsided loss at Ohio State derailed Big Ten East Division title hopes, but the Spartans ended the regular season by winning their last two games by a combined score of 57-14.
A win over Washington State will give Michigan State 10 wins in four of the last five seasons. Since 2012, the Spartans have posted a 55-23 (.705) record. Only Ohio State out of the Big Ten east powers (Ohio State, Penn State, Michigan and Michigan State) can boast an even more impressive mark (72-8, .900).
How were the Spartans able to rebound so quickly from a poor 2016? They got back to the formula that made them successful – ground and pound on offense and a suffocating defense.
Michigan State ranks in the bottom third in scoring offense, averaging only 23.1 points per game, but they rank in the top half of the conference in scoring defense. The Spartans allow 20.3 points per game. Co-defensive coordinators Harlon Barnett and Mike Tressel will need to develop a strong game plan to limit the big plays of Cougars quarterback Luke Falk.
Washington State Overview
Head Coach Mike Leach has resurrected a once-dormant Washington State Cougars football program. In Leach’s six seasons at the helm of Washington State, he has a less-than-stellar 38-37 (.507) record, but digging deeper, he has made the Cougars a perennial Pac-12 North Division title contender. For the second time in three years, the Cougars have achieved nine wins in a season.
A quirk in their scheduling this season allowed Washington State to play their first five games in the confines of Martin Stadium in Pullman, WA. The Cougars took advantage by rolling to 5-0 start, including a thrilling 47-44 3OT win over Boise State and a scintillating 30-27 victory over #5 USC. Washington State also scored a big win over No. 21 Stanford in their home finale.
Washington State was a perfect 7-0 at home, but only 2-3 away from Pullman. The Cougars and their Wazzu faithful will make the nearly 20-hour trek down I-15 S to battle Michigan State. While the Spartan fans travel well, Washington State should have a moderate home-field advantage.
Washington State is playing in the Holiday Bowl for the second consecutive season. Last year, against a depleted and controversial Minnesota Gophers team, Washington State, a prohibitive favorite, laid an egg. This season they look to rebound and put forth a strong performance in senior quarterback Luke Falk’s final college game.
Holiday Bowl Outlook
30 – The magic number.
At least for Washington State, it is. In all nine of Michigan State’s victories, they did not allow their opponent to score 30 or more points. In their three losses, their opponents were able to top the 30-point threshold. Will the Spartans and their stout defense be able to keep Washington State’s high-octane Air Raid passing attack in check, or will the Cougars find ways to get open in space to create lanes for Luke Falk to zip passes, especially to his running backs. The running backs catching passes in space is a big concern of Co-Defensive Coordinator Mike Tressel. It’s rare that a team has two backs with 60 catches each.
Win the time of possession battle.
For Michigan State, the recipe for success, at least offensively, is simple…win the time of possession battle by churning out yards on the ground. The Spartans led the Big Ten in time-of-possession this past season averaging over 35 minutes of ball control per game. The Spartans were methodical in ball movement. They ranked 4th in the Big Ten in rushing attempts (499) but 10th in yards per attempt (3.92 ypa). Michigan State would simply wear down their opponents by the 4th quarter. Running back LJ Scott was the bell cow of the Spartans rushing attack. The junior rushed for nearly 800 yards in the regular season while scoring six touchdowns.
Washington State also led the Pac-12 in time of possession by averaging over 33 minutes of ball control per game. However, their form of controlled attack isn’t through hard-hitting running game, but rather short, controlled, highly-efficient passes from senior Luke Falk. The Cougars led the Pac-12 in passing attempts by a wide margin. Put it this way, Falk had nearly as many completions as Lewerke has pass attempts! Behind only Washington’s Jake Browning, Luke Falk was highly efficient in his pass attempts. The senior signal caller was hitting receivers like Tavares Martin, Jr. and running backs Jamal Morrow or James Williams at a 66.9% rate.
The dichotomy of both teams offensive attack will be something entertaining to watch. Which team will be able to impose their offensive will likely possess the ball more.
Let’s go off the grid.
It’s a bowl game. Time to throw out conventional wisdom and typical game plans. Both teams have had about a month to prepare for each other and likely have deciphered some of tendencies of one another. Which team will be able to throw something at the other that wasn’t in the film study?
Next: Keys to a Penn State win in the Fiesta Bowl
Both head coaches are masters at finding a way to keep their opponent off balance. Perhaps it will be a fake punt or fake field goal. Maybe it will be an on-sides kick when least expected or flea-flicker pass. I’m not sure, but I’ve found in bowl games that it’s best to expect the unexpected. Both Coach Dantonio and Coach Leach can scheme with the best coaches in the country.