Penn State vs. Michigan Prediction Roundtable

Penn State closes out its home schedule this Saturday with a huge Big Ten matchup with the Wolverines. The Nittany Lions are undefeated at home this season and will look to keep that streak alive on Saturday. A huge opponent, the Whiteout, Senior Day, and Christian Haceknberg’s possible last home game, will all make for an electric atmosphere inside of Beaver Stadium.

Coming off a loss at Northwestern, though having a bye week to rest, the Nittany Lions will look to beat Michigan for the fourth time in-a-row in Happy Valley.

See who the VBR staff thinks will win this important matchup.

Lead Editor Barry Leonard Jr. 

I’ve gone back and forth on this one all week. I can’t get the image of how ineffective the offense was at Northwestern two weeks ago out of my head. The Nittany Lions couldn’t do anything on offense, and when they still had a chance to win, a poor play-call on third down doomed their chances.

With that being said, Penn State has had two weeks off to prepare for the tough Wolverines. James Franklin is still searching for a win over a ranked opponent at Penn State, and this could finally be the week. Michigan battled through a double-overtime game at Indiana last week and showed that the defense can be run on.

I’m expecting a heavy dose of Saquon Barkley in this one, I just hope it’s not always out of the Wildcat. Quarterback Christian Hackenberg could be playing his last game in Happy Valley, and he’ll have to show up in a big way to pull off the upset.

I’m hoping that offensive coordinator John Donovan pulls out all the stops in this one, because it may be the only way Penn State can win.

On defense, seniors Anthony Zettel and Carl Nassib will be fired up and could spend a lot of time in the Michigan backfield. The loss of Jordan Lucas will hurt the secondary, though Malik Golden has already done well this year when asked to step in.

The X-factor in this game could be Michigan’s super freshman Jabrill Peppers. He makes plays all over the field and is a dangerous weapon in all three phases of the game.

Everything in this game on paper points to Michigan, especially when considering that a top defense is going against an offense that struggles mightily on most weeks. However, the emotion of Senior Day and the White Out should be enough to help the Nittany Lions hang around in this one.

I’m not really expecting much from either offense, as I’m looking for both defenses to come up big. In the end, Penn State pulls off the home upset, 17-14.

Staff Writer Marty Leap 

There’s no denying the great job Jim Harbaugh has done in his first season in Ann Arbor. He’s taken a Michigan team that went 5-7 a year ago, and has them sitting inside the top 15 at 8-2. For these reasons, Michigan enters this game a four-point favorite against Penn State.

The Wolverines are paced by a defense that ranks eighth nationally in rushing defense, sixth nationally in scoring defense, and second nationally in total defense. However, they were gutted last week by Indiana for over 40 points and over 300 rushing yards. The fact is, Michigan’s defense is not quite as good away from Ann Arbor. Michigan is allowing 9.5 points (including two shutouts) and 209.5 yards per game at home, but it jumps to 357.5 yards and 22.8 points per game on the road.

If Penn State is going to pull the upset Saturday there are two things they must do- pressure Michigan quarterback Jake Rudock and get Saquon Barkley and the running game going. Rudock has proven to be an accurate passer when given time to throw. However, when teams have pressured him, see Utah and Michigan State, he has struggled immensely. Hopefully this Nittany Lion defense that leads the nation in sacks can get in Rudock’s face early and often Saturday.

If Penn State can get Barkley and the rushing attack going, it will make it easier for Christian Hackenberg to have success throwing the ball. Michigan’s secondary has been vulnerable at times, but in order for that to happen they must be forced to respect Barkley and the rushing attack. There are similarities between Penn State’s offense and Indiana’s, so hopefully John Donovan and company can replicate some of what the Hoosier did last Saturday.

I believe this will be a close, low-scoring game. Hopefully, Beaver Stadium is packed on Saturday with the Whiteout in full effect, as I think that can play a role in this game. I would not be surprised to see the Nittany Lions pull the upset Saturday, but, in the end, I think Michigan’s defense makes one more play than Penn State’s offense and that the Wolverines just barely sneak out of Happy Valley with a win.

Michigan 20
Penn State 17

Staff Writer Shane Lunnen

This game versus Michigan is going to be a real tough test for Penn State. The Wolverines have one of the best defenses in the country and are still in the chase for the Big Ten East division crown.  One thing that works in Penn State’s favor is Michigan coming off a double- overtime win against Indiana last week that physically drained them.  Indiana rushed for over 300 yards on a ferocious Michigan run defense, providing a game plan on how to beat them.

However I’m not convinced Penn State has the offensive line to sustain a similar rushing attack.  With the way John Donovan has called plays this year, I suspect Saquon Barkley to get a lot of touches and they’ll just hope he can carry the team on his own. Michigan will look to shut down Barkley and force Christian Hackenberg to beat them with his arm.  The key for Penn State is to call a balanced attack.

Michigan quarterback Jake Rudock is coming off a career day against Indiana, throwing for 440 yards and 6 touchdowns.  He has several talented weapons at his disposal, including receiver Amara Darboh and tight end Jake Butt. The absence of Jordan Lucas will be huge, so the Penn State secondary needs to play their best game to keep the Wolverine offense in check.

Hopefully the bye week helped Penn State rest and heal up because they are going to need everything in this one to pull off the upset.  While I think the Whiteout and Senior Day gives the Nittany Lions an advantage emotionally, on the field I think Michigan will be too much to overcome. I want to be proven wrong here, but the Penn State inconsistencies on offense will be a huge struggle in this one and the defense will get worn down by the second half.

Michigan wins unfortunately, 28-13

Staff Writer Nick Lemon 

There are numerous aspects of this game that at least on paper may tip the scales in Penn States’s favor; an extra week of preparation, the electrifying White Out, Senior Day and Michigan vs. Ohio State next week. A victory against the Wolverines would be huge for the Nittany Lions and coaching staff in what has been a very up and down season despite the seven wins. In an East division that is stacked with big-time talent and even bigger coaching personalities, Coach Franklin is in need of a signature win against a ranked opponent.

To pull off the upset Penn State’s offensive coaching staff, Christian Hackenberg and special teams are all going to have to execute at an elevated level. Unfortunately, the Lions are facing a talented Wolverine team with a balanced offense, top-tier defense, excellent special teams and a highly-reputable head coach.

I predict that Michigan will focus on neutralizing Penn State’s main offensive weapon, Saquon Barkley. As a result, Penn State’s upset hopes will fall squarely on Hackenberg’s right arm. Unfortunately, I expect the Nittany Lion offense and special teams struggles to continue against the Wolverine defense. Penn State’s talented defense playing without leader, Jordan Lucas rides the rides the White Out crowd for a few quarters before eventually wearing down after having to repeatedly defend the short field.

Penn State falls short in the White Out, 28-17.