Penn State Football: Keys to the Game

Sep 20, 2014; University Park, PA, USA; Penn State Nittany Lions players sing the alma-mater following the completion of the game against the Massachusetts Minutemen at Beaver Stadium. Penn State defeated Massachusetts 48-7. Mandatory Credit: Matthew O’Haren- USA TODAY Sports

Penn State has now completed a third of its 2014 football season and so far, things appear to be looking up. Most prognosticators would have likely given you good odds that Penn State would have reached this part of the season with either an undefeated mark or with possibly a single defeat. Quite frankly, outside of Central Florida or perhaps Rutgers, Penn State was the superior squad on both sides of the ball so it shouldn’t come as a shock that they are unblemished to date.

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What might be more of a shock is that only two Big Ten teams, Nebraska and Penn State, are still unbeaten. Not the mighty Buckeyes from Ohio State, nor the Wolverines of Michigan, or even Wisconsin or Michigan State can claim that mark after a third of the season. Certainly an arguement can be made about the quality of teams those schools have played compared to Penn State, but still, Penn State can at least talk of an unbeaten season. Now, with the sanctions having been lifted, can even talk about Big Ten and national title implications.

I don’t want to get too far ahead of myself, Penn State still has the meaty portion of the schedule ahead, but with bye weeks before playing both Michigan and Ohio State, who seem to be down compared to previous years, at least the conversation of getting to November undefeated may start to gain some traction. Before Penn State can get to the bye week, the must tackle their home-opening Big Ten opponent – Northwestern, on Homecoming no less. No matter who the coach has been, Penn State seems to always find a way to defeat the Wildcats. Usually those games end up in dramtaic fashion with Penn State finding a way to pull it out late.

This season has been an injury-plagued affair for head coach Pat Fitzgerald. The former Wildcats alum who has been at the helm since 2006, has had his share of ups and downs. However, one of the toughest days of his tenure at Northwestern had to have been on August 13 of this year. On that day, the Wildcats football program was hit with a 1-2 punch in the solar plexus with the loss of All-Big Ten running back Venric Mark who decided to transfer to West Texas A&M and leading wide receiver Christian Jones who was lost to a season-ending knee injury.

The 2014 campaign couldn’t have started out any worse for Northwestern losing their opening two games at home to California and Northern Illinois before rebounding last week with a home defeat of Western Illinois. The Wildcats have been forced to pick up the shattered pieces of a once-promising 2014 season. Many writers thought Northwestern could be a surprise team to come out of the Big Ten’s newly aligned West Division. In order to be that surprise team, head coach Pat Fitzgerald may need one of his best coaching jobs to date. Northwestern still has the talent and the ammunition to be an under-the-radar type of squad.

As such, Penn State needs to be ready for anything the Wildcats can throw at them. To find out what Penn State needs to do, check out my keys to the game.

Key #1 – Penn State Must Not Abandon the Running Game

Sep 20, 2014; University Park, PA, USA; Penn State Nittany Lions running back Bill Belton (1) runs with the ball during the second quarter against the Massachusetts Minutemen at Beaver Stadium. Penn State defeated Massachusetts 48-7. Mandatory Credit: Matthew O
For one week at least, the Nittany Lions looked like a well-oiled, balanced offensive attack. But, lets keep in mind the opponent! Now I for one don’t want to burst any bubbles or rain on anyone’s parade; the ability of the Penn State running backs to hit holes, and exploit the deficiencies in the Minutemen’s run defense had to be a supreme confidence builder. However, Penn State needs to keep that going against the caliber of a team like a Northwestern.

Penn State was fairly well stymied against Rutgers, their opening Big Ten opponent, but that can’t deter them from maintaining some semblence of a running game this week. The ability of the Penn State rushers to make yards and take the pressure off quaterback Christian Hackenberg is immeasurable. In fact, last week was the only game this year that Hackenberg did not record an interception. Not coincidentally it was also the first game Penn State recorded a near 50-50 split between running and passing the ball.

This week, Penn State faces a difficult challenge going up against the Northwestern front seven led by senior Chi Chi Araguzo. Araguzo, the WILL or weakside linebacker, leads the Wildcats with 28 tackles. The secondary for Northwestern is also very active. Players like corenerback Nick VanHoose and Matthew Harris have become an integral parts of the Northwestern defense. Penn State, however, can exploit this defense by getting to the second level. So far this sesaon, opponents have been rushing for an average of nearly 140 yards per game against the Wildcats. Contrast that with Penn State who is giving up a league best 49.5 yards per game on the ground.

To me, Penn State needs to find a way to continue building on its success from a week ago with the rushing attack. No doubt Hackenberg will put up his numbers through the air, but the bigger selling point, for me anyway, is how well and how long the Nittany Lions run the ball. Against UMass, Penn State utilized four running backs to a greater extent then they have for mush of the season up to this point. Moving forward form this point, I think you’ll start to see a heavier dose of Bill Belton and Akeel Lynch over a power back like Zach Zwinak. Zwinak certainly has a role, but he is not the fast speed back that head coach James Franklin seems to favor. Zwinak is the tough-nosed bulldozer type of runner to get you the tough yards or the goal line carries.

This week I suspect Belton will have 50-75 yards rushing with a score, while Zwinak will add another 25-30 yards and possibly a score. I also think Lynch will get about 25-30 yards. None of these stat lines will blow you away, but if they can achieve these numbers while running the ball about 30-35 times, then they should be able to control the clock and the game.

Key #2 – Penn State Must Win Special Teams Battle

Aug 30, 2014; Dublin, IRL; Penn State Nittany Lions place kicker Sam Ficken (97) kicks a 37 yard field goal to defeat the Central Florida Knights at Croke Park. Mandatory Credit: Steve Flynn-USA TODAY Sports
Northwestern has gotten off to a rocky 1-2 start this season, due in part to injuries and turnovers. One area that the Wildcats have always excelled in, and this season is shaping up to be no different, is special teams. The Wildcats used to be able to trot out All-Big Ten performer Venric Mark to handle punt returns and kickoffs. With his transfer though the job has fallen to junior wideout Miles Shuler for punt reurns and freshman wide receiver Solomon Vault for kick returns.

After three games, the Wildcats are averaging 11.7 return yards per punt while Penn State is last in the Big Ten averaging a scant 3.50 return yards per punt. Penn State must do a better job in this area! Penn State has started countless numbers of drives deeper in their territory than the should have simply because the punt returner does not come up and catch the punt, rather letting it bounce and role deeper into the Nittany Lions end of the field. This needs to be an area of focus for the Penn State coaching staff.

Penn State has improved in their kick return game since the insertion of freshman defensive back Grant Haley as the primary kick returner. Haley is currently fifth in the Big Ten in kickoff returns averaging nearly 25 yards per kickoff return. As a team, the Nittany Lions are up to 32nd nationally in kickoff return average. To give you a comparison, last season Penn State was 102nd nationally averaging a paltry 19.14 yards per return. This season they are clicking 24.30 yards per return. Haley has been the primary reason with his explosive starts and his ability to his an open seam. Look for teams to start finsing ways to either pin Haley against the sidelines or start kicking the ball away from him.

Once the punchline to many an off-color joke, Sam Ficken has turned things around this season. He stands only two made field goals shy of breaking Robbie Gould’s all-time PSU made field goal list. Not bad for someone who virtually counted out after his sophomore season. Ficken has not only become a reliable field goal kicker, he has become a big part of the Penn State scoring machine. No one in the Big Ten has attempted (9) or made (8) field goals than Sam Ficken this season. He has already been named the Special Teams Player of the Week after his game winning field goal to beat Central Florida in Ireland. His ability to make pressure kicks in close games has made Sam an extremely vital part of the Penn State team.

While Ficken has been solid for Penn State, Northwestern is breaking in a new kicker, sophomore Jack Mitchell. On the season, Mitchell has been perfect with his 2 attempts. However, this is one area that Penn State can exploit. If Penn State reaches the opponents 35 yard line, it has a legitimate chance of coming away with points. Meanwhile, Mitchell has only made field goals of 24 and 28 yards. He has yet to be tested from longer distances. If Penn State can play the “bend but don’t break” defense and keep Northwestern out of the red zone, it may prevent the Wildcats from scoring at all. Certainly the checkmark for special teams scoring would favor the Nittany Lions. Look for them to continue to push their advantage in this game as well as attempt to find ways to spark their anemic punt return game.

Key #3 – Penn State Must Take Advantage of Opportunities!

Sep 20, 2014; University Park, PA, USA; Penn State Nittany Lions quarterback Christian Hackenberg (14) runs with the ball during the third quarter against the Massachusetts Minutemen at Beaver Stadium. Penn State defeated Massachusetts 48-7. Mandatory Credit: Matthew O’Haren- USA TODAY Sports
Parsing through the Big Ten stats after four weeks, I found that Northwestern really sits about 10th in the conference in many of the major offensive and defensive statistics. To say their offense and defense have been pedestrian may be an overstatement. However, the one interesting stat I ran across was how few points the Wildcats have actually given up.

Currently, Northwestern ranks fifth in the Big Ten in scoring defense allowing only 20.3 points per game. That’s not bad when you consider Penn State is only scoring 27.0 points per game, good for 10th best in the conference. On Saturday, Penn State needs to capitalize on the red zone opportunities and other scoring chances. A team like Northwestern is very fragile. Emotions will certainly be high as it is their first Big Ten game of the year. Just as quickly as emotions can rise, they can also deflate.

If Penn State can jump out to an early lead, they may be able to put away this pesky team. Leave them in the game, and it could be a long afternoon for the Nittany Lions.

I expect Penn State to play a solid football game, excelling in the passing game and being able to rush the ball as needed. The defense has the ability to contain Wildcat quarterback Trevor Siemian and keep him in the pocket. Gone are the days of the read-option with Kain Colter. In its place is more of a drop-back passer in Siemian. Penn State has routinely done a decent job of forcing him into hurried situations. Hopefully for the defense on Saturday, it will be much of the same for Siemian.

Prediction:

Penn State – 27

Northwestern – 13

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Penn State Football: Keys to the Game – Northwestern

By Corey Hunter | Sep 27, 2014

Key #1 – Penn State Must Not Abandon the Running Game

Key #2 – Penn State Must Win Special Teams Battle

Key #3 – Penn State Must Take Advantage of Opportunities!

Prediction: