Game #3:  Ohio State at  Penn State (Oct. 27)

The Skinny:

Not only is this game for bragging rights between Ohio and Pennsylvania, it’s likely to determine the winner of the Big Ten’s Leader’s Division.  While Penn State and Ohio State are both ineligible to play for the conference title, they are however, allowed to win the Legend’s Division.

A few weeks ago, most, would have figured Ohio State would be able to sail into and out of Happy Valley with a comfortable win with all of the problems the Nittany Lions were experiencing both on and off the field.  Somewhere after week 2 the momentum began to swing in the other direction for Penn State.  After an emotional first win over Navy, Bill O’Brien;s squad then reeled off another 4 wins, including 3 straight conference games.  Looking to win their 6th straight game, O’Brien knows that this will be the Nittany Lions most difficult task to date.

Head Coach Urban Meyer in his first season at the helm of the Buckeyes found his cupboard stacked with a little more talent than his counterparts to the East.  Braxton Miller leads the high-octane Buckeyes attack.  Make no mistake, the Buckeyes go as Miller goes.  Last week in their game against Purdue, Miller went down with what appeared to be a concussion (test later revealed it was only a neck injury).  The offense was stuck in neutral until junior Kenny Guiton lead the Buckeyes frantically down the field in the waning seconds.  Ohio State scoring the tying TD and subsequent 2-pt conversion with only 3 seconds left on the clock.  While it looks like Miller should be fine to play Saturday, both Miller and coach Meyer know that they can ill-afford to have him go down for any length of time with an injury.

October 20, 2012; Columbus, OH, USA; Ohio State Buckeyes quarterback Braxton Miller (5) fires a pass upfield against the Purdue Boilermakers at Ohio Stadium. Ohio State won the game 29-22 in overtime. Mandatory Credit: Greg Bartram-US PRESSWIRE

Ohio State Will Win If:

Braxton Miller is able to penetrate the Penn State secondary with his runs.

As Braxton Miller goes, so goes the Ohio State offense.  Ohio State has amassed 3509 total yards of offense this year and Miller has accounted for 67% of it (2343 yards).  Suffice it to say, he IS the Ohio State offense.  The Buckeyes lead the Big Ten conference in total rushing yards (1997 yards) and it all starts with their enormous offensive line.  Both of Ohio State’s tackles are 6’8″ or taller and they go around 310 pounds.  Ohio State uses these guys to help seal the edges on their read-options.  Penn State’s defensive ends, Sean Stanley and Deion Barnes are going to have to use their quickness and speed if the are going to generate a pass rush up the field.

If Ohio State can break Penn State’s contain on the outside, Miller should be able to make some plays in space.  Usually Miller’s best runs come on broken down pass plays.  Look for Penn State to play with at least 8 men in the box for a majority of this game.  The Linebackers, especially all-Big Ten candidates Michael Mauti and Gerald Hodges will be counted upon to fill gaps and keep Miller and running back Carlos Hyde to the inside of the field.

Hyde is another running intangible in Coach Meyer’s offense.  He is hard-nosed bruising tailback that normally does not go down on the first hit.  He has the speed and quickness to get around the corner, but he also possesses the strength to take it up the middle on short yardage situations.

If Ohio State can consistently manage their down and distances, it could make for a long evening for Penn State.  Ohio State has been one of the worst Big Ten teams in terms of time of possession.  They are holding onto the ball for a little less than half of the game while Penn State is one of the conference’s best at maintaining the rock.  Ohio State is going to need to flip that stat if they are going to win Saturday night.

October 20, 2012; Iowa City, IA, USA; Iowa Hawkeyes cornerback Greg Castillo (2) tackles Penn State Nittany Lions running back Bill Belton (1) during the fourth quarter at Kinnick Stadium. Penn State beat Iowa 38-14. Mandatory Credit: Reese Strickland-US PRESSWIRE

Penn State Will Win If:

they can maintain equal balance between the run and the pass.

In their last 3 conference games, Penn State has found a more balanced offensive attack.  At quarterback, senior Matt McGloin has found a resurgence under first year head coach Bill O’Brien.  He leads the Big Ten in passing yards with 255.4 ypg.  He has also found a new weapon not often heard from At Penn State, the tight end.  Kyle Carter has led a plethora of tight ends that have been vital to Penn State’s passing game.  Their ability to loosen up the middle of the field has allowed wide receiver Allen Robinson to lead the conference in TD receptions.  Robinson is second in the conference in receiving yards and yards per game.

When Penn State hands off, they do so to a number of talented backs.  Probably the fastest and shiftiest is converted wide receiver Bill Belton.  Last week against Iowa Belton rushed for over 100 yards and 3 TDs.  Belton has been coming along steadily after a high ankle sprain forced him to miss 3 games.  In his absence, other backs had to step up.  Namely Zach Zwinak and fullback Michael Zordich.  Look for Penn State to try and establish the presence of a running game.  if they can, then they will be able to maintain possession of the ball and keep Braxton Miller off the field.

Penn State has also been efficient at picking up both 3rd and 4th down conversions.  Their ability to convert short down and distances has led to the Penn State being one of the conferences best teams at maintaining possession.  Penn State holds onto the ball for a little over 32.5  minutes per game.  If they can keep the Buckeyes offense off of the field, things should bode well for the home team.

Game Intangibles:

The home crowd is expected to be raucous as they are having a White Out for this game.  Penn State has long been known as one of the toughest places for opposing teams to play.  This game should be extremely loud right from the start.

If the game comes down to a game-winning field goal, count Ohio State as having a slight advantage.  Ohio State PK Drew Basil is 3 of 5 on the year with a long of 35 yards while Penn State PK Sam Ficken 4 of 11 with a long of only 34 yards.  Both teams are going to need to get close for the respective place kickers to have any confidence.

The weather could be a factor in this game as rain is expected to move in during the game.  If the game gets sloppy, Ohio State with their running game may have the advantage.  Watch to see if and how the weather for Saturday’s game plays a factor in what either team is able to do with the ball.

Prediction:

Look for Penn State to win the time of possession battle in the game with their ball-control offense.  They should be able to have success with their underneath passing game.  I don’t think Ohio State has the linebackers that will be able to stop TE Kyle Carter or even Penn State’s slot receivers, namely Alex Kenney.

Ohio State should have varied success running the ball, but Miller will be well below his season average of 119.88 rushing yards per game.  Look for Penn State to be able to frustrate both Hyde and Miller and contain wide receiver Philly Brown.

This game will be as razor-thin as the point-spread has been, but in the end, the home team will come on top!

The Score:

Ohio State – 23

Penn State (PK) – 24

Extra Points:

Note:  My predictions will be in bold!  Enjoy the games of week #9.

Mississippi State (+23) at Alabama

Texas Tech at Kansas State (-7)

Colorado at Oregon (-47)

Oregon State at Washington (+3.5)

USC (-6.5) at Arizona

Duke (+27.5) at Florida State

Tennessee at South Carolina (-14)

Kent State at Rutgers (-13.5)

Washington State (+24.5) at Stanford

Texas A&M (-14.5) at Auburn

Boise State (-15.5) at Wyoming

Michigan at Nebraska (-2)

Texas (-19) at Kansas

Ohio (-7) at Miami (OH)

Michigan State (+6) at Wisconsin

Iowa at Northwestern (-5)

Temple at Pitt (-6.5)

BYU at Georgia Tech (-2.5)

North Carolina State (+7.5) at North Carolina

TCU (+7) at Oklahoma State

UCF (-1.5) at Marshall

UCLA (+6.5) at Arizona State