Game #2: ^#5 Notre Dame at ^#8 Oklahoma (Oct. 27)

The Skinny:

Really, how good is the Notre Dame Fighting Irish?  Saturday night on ABC’s prime time game, everyone in the nation should find out!  Notre Dame will attempt to go to 8-0 for the first time since 2002.  They will be going up against a one-loss team that still maintains aspirations for a national title shot.  This will be the first meeting between Notre Dame and Oklahoma since 1999 which was Bob Stoops’ first year as Oklahoma’s head coach, and this will be Notre Dame’s first trip to Norman since 1966.

How will the Irish handle the intense spotlight now that they are only a few wins away from an undefeated mark?  How will Oklahoma handle a chance to emerge as a potential national title contender with one loss?

Notre Dame has historically done very well in this series going 8-1, but the two teams haven’t met on the gridiron since 2002.  Both teams have undergone complete makeovers since then.  When two teams of this historic nature get together, throw the records out the window.  The game takes on a whole new meaning.  As of this writing, Oklahoma is favored by double digits, but I have a feeling that this contest might be closer than most people think.  The Notre Dame defense is 6th nationally in total yards per game allowed and 2nd nationally in points allowed per game at just less than 10 pts per game.  Oklahoma, on the other hand, ranks 17th nationally in yards per game at 491.3 and 5th nationally in scoring offense going off at a clip of 44.7 pts per game.  Saturday night in Norman something has to give.

Oct. 20, 2012; South Bend, IN, USA; Notre Dame Fighting Irish linebacker Manti Te

Notre Dame Will Win If:

they can get a strong performance from quarterback Everett Golson, and they can pound the rock with Cierre Wood and Theo Riddick.

Does Notre Dame head coach have a quarterbacking controversy?  Perhaps not, but there are questions surrounding Golson’s ability to handle the spotlight.  Tommy Ress has spelled Golson in a couple of the Irish’s games and has led them to victories.  In each case, Golson has regained the starting position the following week.

While Golson hasn’t been asked to do much within the framework of the Irish offense, he also hasn’t given them much production either.  In Notre Dame;s biggest games so far this season he has had a massive downturn in production.  Now going into perhaps Notre Dame’s biggest game of the season, he is going to have to rally the troops and not only build confidence early on, but also sustain it throughout.  That might be a tall order considering Oklahoma has the 3rd best pass defense (only allowing 986 yards passing in 6 games through the air) in all of college football.

Another facet of the Notre Dame offense that needs to be clicking for them to sin Saturday night is the ability to pound the ball with Theo Riddick and Cierre Wood.  George Atkinson III will not play due to injury.  Both running backs will be needed to help take the pressure off of Everett Golson and the Irish passing game.  Look for Notre Dame to provide heavy doses of Wood and Riddick so that they can set up play-action passes with Golson.

Last week against BYU, both Riddick and Wood combined for 257 yards on 33 carries.  It is not out of the realm to expect the Notre Dame could find some success on the ground either.  The Sooners of late have shown a weakness in stopping the opposing teams rushing attack.  Oklahoma ranks 48th nationally and 5th in the Big 12 in rush defense giving up 139.83 yards per game.  In fact, in Oklahoma’s only loss this year, to Kansas State, the Sooners allowed the Wildcats to run for 213 yards.  So, it is possible for teams to be able to move the ball on the ground against the Sooners.  Look for Notre Dame to try and exploit that weakness.

Oct 13, 2012; Dallas, TX, USA; Oklahoma Sooner quarterback Landry Jones (12) throws in the pocket against the Texas Longhorns during the red river rivalry at the Cotton Bowl. Mandatory Credit: Matthew Emmons-US PRESSWIRE

Oklahoma Will Win If:

quarterback Landry Jones can once again reclaim his early season Heisman-level form.

So far this season Jones has taken a backseat to his two-headed ground game of Dominique Whaley and Damien Williams.  The duo has combined for 793 rushing yards and 8 rushing touchdowns.  In the Red River Rivalry game with Texas, the Whaley-Williams duo went off for 218 yards and 1 TD (167 yards and 1 TD from Williams).  It would not be a shock to see Oklahoma try and establish their running game out of the shoot.

Backup quarterback and goal line rusher extraordinaire Blake Bell could be the wild card in all of this.  His ability in short yardage and goal line situations is unrivaled in college football.  He is the modern-day version of Tim Tebow.  All they guy does is score touchdowns.  On the season Bell has only thrown 12 passes and recorded 0 TDs, but he has rushed it 31 times and already scored 8 TDs.  He’s a huge load to bring down and a weapon around the goal line.

If Oklahoma does come out passing, Landry Jones has shown he is more than capable of shouldering the load.  Jones has thrown for nearly 1700 yards and completed 62.9% of his passing attempts.  What’s more, he has also thrown for 12 TDs against only 3 INTs.  In the game against Kansas last week, Jones threw for 300 yards and 3 scores to pace the Sooners offense.  His outside receivers, Kenny Stills, Justin Brown, Trey Metomoyer, and Sterling Shepard.  These four have been a nightmare for opposing defensive coordinators to game plan against.  Each week a new target leads the receiving corps.

I would not be surprised to see Notre Dame focus on trying to stop the Sooners rushing attack.  That means more single coverage for the Sooners wideouts, and a chance for Landry Jones to show what he’s got.  Notre Dame ranks 15th nationally against the run giving up an average of a little over 105 yards per game on the ground.  If Oklahoma can hit the Irish for some big chunks in the ground game that will almost certainly force Notre Dame to put 8 in the box, giving Jones a chance to stretch the field.  The Irish rank 13th against the pass giving up 174 yards per game through the air, but albeit against mediocre passing teams.  No doubt this will be the best all-around offense the Notre Dame defense has seen this year.  It remains to be seen how Notre Dame’s defense will do against an elite signal caller like Landry Jones.

Game Intangibles:

Notre Dame leads the all-time series 8-1.  The only time Oklahoma was able to pull out a victory was during the 1956 season, during their NCAA-record 47 game winning streak.  Under head coach Bob Stoops, the Oklahoma Sooners have only lost one home game to a non-conference foe during his twelve year tenure.  In order for Notre Dame to continue their undefeated season and improbably march toward the national championship, they are going to have to make it two times.

Oklahoma’s Memorial Stadium should be loud and rocking for this game.  Expect to see a very loud home audience that could possibly give Notre Dame and the signal caller, Everett Golson some problems.  If Notre Dame is truly a national championship caliber team, they need to be able to play through the crowd noise and get the job done.  The question remains…is Notre Dame national championship worthy?  Saturday night will give everyone a glimpse into that answer.

Prediction:

The Irish have had a very stout defense all year long.  They haven’t given up a rushing touchdown all season, but they also haven’t faced an offense with the weapons that Oklahoma possesses.  If you stop the Oklahoma rushing attack, Landry Jones can get you through the air.  If you stop Jones’s big plays on the outside, Whaley and Williams can run right past you.  Also, don’t forget the tank Blake Bell.

For Notre Dame, look for Everett Golson to struggle early in this game.  I see him having at least two INTs, but also throwing for a touchdown.  Theo Riddick and Cierre Wood will have over 100 yards rushing combined and one touchdown.  The big receiver, Tyler Eiffert should have a decent game as well.  He is Golson’s go-to-guy, and I can certainly see him having 5 grabs for 50-75 yards.  As Notre Dame gets closer to the goal line, the Sooners will roll coverage in his direction to keep him out of the end zone.  So, while he doesn’t get in the end zone, he does open up opportunities for other players to make plays.

Overall, look for Oklahoma to stretch the Irish defense through the air and as the game progresses, attack Notre Dame with more urgency on the ground.  The quick strike capability of Landry Jones will be too much for the Irish secondary.  Jones will throw for over 300 yards and 2 touchdowns.  Either Blake Bell or Dominique Whaley will get another TD on the ground as the Sooners give the Irish their first loss of the season.

The Score:

Notre Dame (+11.5) – 17

Oklahoma – 27