Week #9 CFB Preview:

Game #1: ^#2 Florida vs ^#10 Georgia (Oct. 27) [Game played in Jacksonville, FL]

The Skinny:

Really, not much more has to be said than the winner of this game is the SEC Eastern Division champion.  If Florida wins, they are the champs outright, and Georgia jumps to the front of the line with a win.  They would still have to beat ole Miss and Auburn in their final two games to claim the crown, but they would be in the driver’s seat.

Katy-bar-the-door when these two get together.  This is one heck of a rivalry.  Its nickname, the World’s Largest outdoor Cocktail Party, is one of my all-time favorites!  With so much riding on this game, both teams should come out fired up for this one.  Florida is coming off an impressive home-whooping of South Carolina while Georgia needs a better performance than the one they got in Lexington, KY last weekend.  Yes, Georgia got the win and wins are all that matters, but they will need to play a whole lot better if they are going to beat this Gators squad.  But, you can throw the stats out the window when these two teams meet up!

October 20, 2012; Gainesville, FL, USA; Florida players Florida Gators Jaylen Watkins (14) and Jabari Gorman (21) celebrate with teammates during the game between the Florida Gators and the South Carolina Gamecocks at Ben Hill Griffin Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Rob Foldy-US PRESSWIRE

Florida Will Win If:

it can stop Georgia quarterback Aaron Murray’s ability to make big plays with his arm.

An under-publicized fact about the Bulldogs is Georgia leads the SEC in plays over 20, 30, and 40 yards.  One of the major reasons for that is Aaron Murray’s ability to stretch the field with his arm.  Not only does Georgia feature two of the best running backs in the country in Todd Gurley and Keith Marshall, affectionately called GurShall, but they also have one of the best play-making wide receivers in the country in Tavarres King.  Georgia presents a very balanced offense that will have to be clicking to keep the Gators defense at bay.  Georgia ranks 3oth nationally in both rushing and passing offense.

On the flip side, Florida has yielded only four plays over 30 yards and and three plays over 30 yards.  And get this, the longest touchdown scoring play given up by the Gators defense was a 12 yards rush from Bowling Green.  Not doubt Florida coach Will Muschamp will focus on trying to limit the big runs from GurShall, but that could leave his secondary vulnerable to the Aaron Murray big pass play.  Take your pick, which do you try and stop?

My guess is look for Florida to use their speedy and quick defensive line to try and slow down GurShall while leaving his corners on an island to play against the Bulldogs receivers.  I would also expect safety help over the top on King to try and limit the deep the pass.

If Florida can limit the big plays from the Georgia offense, then they should be able to make enough plays on offense to win the game.

Oct 20, 2012; Lexington, KY, USA; Georgia Bulldogs quarterback Aaron Murray (11) hands the ball off to running back Todd Gurley (3) in the second half at Commonwealth Stadium. Georgia defeated Kentucky 29-24. Mandatory Credit: Mark Zerof-US PRESSWIRE

Georgia Will Win If:

quite simply, they slow down the vaunted Gators rushing attack and make Jeff Driskel beat them with the pass rather than with the run.

The Gators can ram the ball down your throat in a variety of ways.  They can go straight ahead with All-SEC candidate Mike Gillislee.  Gillislee is 4th in the SEC is rushing (652 yards).  They can run the read-option with both Gillislee and Driskel, or they can mix in the Wildcat with Trey Burton.  No matter what style the Gators prefer, they like a physical running back.  As a team, Florida averages over 212 rushing yards per game.  Its no secret what they want to do in this game.  The question is, can Georgia put enough run-stoppers in the box to slow down the Florida running game?

Last week against Kentucky, Georgia, as a team, was gashed for over 200 yards.  This week, they get Jarvis Jones back which should certainly help.

The blueprint for beating Florida comes down to Georgia not only slowing down the Florida running game which ranks 3rd in the SEC at 212.71 ypg, but also making Jeff Driskel beat you through the air.  Florida ranks 118th nationally in passing offense, just ahead of passing juggernauts Navy and Air Force.  Last week Driskel was able to take advantage of the Gamecocks relaxed secondary coverage to burn them for 4 passing touchdowns but only on 93 yards passing.

In order for Georgia to come away with this much-needed win, they have to take advantage of this disparity and make Florida beat them through the air.  They must also force Driskel’s hand at the point of attack.  Allowing him time to make decisions will not end well for the Bulldogs.  Keep in mind that Driskel is only in his first year as the Gators starting QB, but he has shown poise under pressure.  Georgia is going to have to rattle his cage for them to win this game.

Game Intangibles:

In this series, Florida holds a distinct advantage having won 7 of the previous 10 meetings.  However, Georgia left Jacksonville last year with a 24-20 win.  On the flip side, Florida hasn’t lost back-to-back games against Georgia in 1988-89.

Here’s another interesting twist to this weekend’s big game, Florida head coach Will Muschamp has NEVER been on the winning side of a Florida-Georgia game.  As a player for the Bulldogs in the early to mid 1990s and as head coach of Florida, Muschamp has never tasted victory over the Bulldogs.  Can this weekend be his first?

Georgia quarterback Aaron Murray is no stranger to the pressure and hype of this game.  It was his two fourth-down touchdown passes last year that enabled the Bulldogs to scratch out a win.  So far this year he is off to another fantastic start having thrown for almost 2000 yards, 16 touchdowns and only 4 interceptions.  Last week Murray threw for a career-best 427 passing yards and 4 TDs.  Georgia is going to need another clutch Aaron Murray performance if they want to upset the Gators and stake their claim as the SEC East’s best.

Prediction:

Look for Florida to make enough plays to keep the Bulldogs below-average rush defense on their heels all night.  The Dogs give up a whopping 167.86 rushing ypg.  Against a team that is as adept at rushing as Florida, that will spell doom.

Many teams have tried to implement the blueprint of making Driskel beat them, but most have failed either at being able to accomplishing the task or being able to stop his throwing.  The Bulldogs certainly do have a chip on their shoulder, and I think they will be able to play the “no respect” card in this one as many of the national pundits are drinking the Gator Kool-Aid, but in the end Murray won’t be able to make enough plays against the Gators defense to provide them with a win.

Look for Murray and the SEC’s 4th rated pass offense to throw for over 200 passing yards and 2 scores, but the ability to of the Gators to run the ball and control the clock will force him, when he does have the ball, to make throws into tight coverage and that plays right into a strong suit for Florida.  The Gators have 8 INTs on the season and they are just waiting to make Murray Gator-bait!

I think the GurShall tandem will even get into the end zone and they will run for over 100 combined yards, but when they are needed, the Gators stingy defense will be the deciding factor.  They will come up with a late turnover that will seal the game for Florida.

The Score:

Florida (-6.5) – 34

Georgia – 23