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Penn State Football-Who Will The Lions Play In Ireland?

Matt de Bear — Wed, 01 May 2013 11:00:16 +0000

One of the more popular scheduling topics of the past few months has been the recurring talk of the Nittany Lions heading across the pond to play a game in Ireland. Bill O’Brien has pushed the story along as well, repeatedly stating that it is indeed being discussed. With future Big 10 schedules officially expanding to 9 games, it would appear all but one hurdle has been cleared. That final step? Finding a dance partner. The following are not predictions, or even based on reality. Rather, it’s just some ideas of who I would like to see join PSU on the Emerald Isle.

Notre Dame

Forgive me for grabbing the low hanging fruit to start off. But aside from the obvious Notre Dame connections to Ireland, two of the most storied programs in college football playing a marquis game overseas would be fantastic. Add in the shared St. John’s Prep lineage of Bill O’Brien and Brian Kelly, and you have the makings of a great story.

Ohio State

There is no doubt that the Buckeyes are the premier opponent on Penn State’s schedule every season, and probably PSU’s biggest current rival. How great would it be to see one of the Big 10′s biggest annual games on the international stage? Now, this one falls in the “absolutely no chance” category for any number of reasons, but a guy can dream, right?

USC

This would be fun. You of course have the tradition factor with a program like USC, but there are so many great stories. Two programs that very much feel jobbed by the NCAA. The whole Silas Redd transfer situation. And I heard that the Trojans’ coach is something of a lightning rod of criticism. I’d love to see the Lions and SC get together anywhere, why not Ireland?

Temple

HAHA, not really. I don’t want to play Temple in Ireland, Philly, State College, or anywhere else. I may at least listen to arguments for Vegas, however.

Nebraska

When I think of historic Penn State rivals, Nebraska is probably at the top of the list. There have been so many signature moments over the years in the meetings between these two programs. This one gets hard with the elimination of the “protected” crossover game, and much like Ohio State, I doubt either school wants to concede a home Big 10 game against a big rival.

The likely path is probably a smaller profile school from a major FBS conference looking to generate more exposure with a game like this. But it is certainly fun to think about how fun some of these matchups would be overseas.

Follow VBR Lead Editor Matt de Bear on Twitter for the latest on Penn State

College Football Bowl Preview – New Year’s Eve

Corey Hunter — Sun, 30 Dec 2012 16:00:47 +0000

Welcome back folks! Here we are with our third installment of the college bowl previews. The contests in this post will feature the bowl games for December 31st, New Year’s Eve. On the slate are four games with teams that many of us like to troll on Twitter, including the Southern California Trojans and the LSU Tigers. No matter your rooting interest, New Year’s Eve bowl games have something for everyone!

The first game takes us to Nashville, TN as the NC State Wolfpack do battle against the Vanderbilt Commodores in the Franklin American Mortgage Music City Bowl. From there we travel to El Paso, Texas as those Southern California Trojans try to end their season on a bright note as they face off against the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets. While that game is going on, we will quickly jetset back to Memphis, TN as AutoZone Liberty Bowl features the Iowa State Cyclones out of the Big 12 against the Tulsa Golden Hurricane, winners of Conference USA. Finally, the last game of the evening may be the most intriguing from a match-up perspective. The LSU Tigers will go up against the Clemson Tigers in the Chick-fil-A Bowl in Atlanta, GA.

These games should be an interesting appetizer to the New Year’s Day bowl games that feature six games, five of which include Big Ten teams. A New Year’s Day Bowl Preview featuring Big Ten teams will be coming your way prior to the first New Year’s Day game so keep your eye out for that one. We will ave commentary and previews from many of our football writers, lead editor Matt de Bear, staff writer Eric Scion, staff writer Chuck Reynolds, and myself.

Without further ado, let’s take a sneak peek at the New Year’s Eve Bowl Games starting with the Franklin American Mortgage Music City Bowl. Enjoy your New Year’s Eve celebrations, be safe, and get ready for what hopefully will be a blessed 2013 including another great season for Penn State football…WE ARE…PENN STATE!!

Franklin American Mortgage Music City Bowl

TEAMS: Vanderbilt (8-4, 5-3 Southeastern Conference) vs. North Carolina State (7-5, 4-4 Atlantic Coast Conference

TIME: December 31st, 12:00 p.m. EST

TV: ESPN

LAS VEGAS LINES: Vanderbilt -7.5; Over/Under 51.5 points

In this preview we look at the Music City Bowl featuring North Carolina State out of the ACC conference taking on the Vanderbilt Commodores from the SEC. This game is a veritable home game for Vanderbilt as their campus is in Nashville, TN and the Music City Bowl is in Memphis, TN, about a 3.5 drive. Look for Vanderbilt to have a bevy of its fans at the game to create a home-game atmosphere!

Oct 01, 2011; Raleigh, NC, USA; North Carolina State Wolfpack cheerleaders on the sidelines in their game against the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets at Carter-Finley Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Mark Dolejs-USA TODAY Sports

The NC State Wolfpack enter the Music City Bowl as a bit of an enigma, they had some big wins including handing Florida State their only ACC loss, but the Wolfpack couldn’t sustain any momentum. As big as the Florida State win was, the Virginia loss was just as bad. On the whole, the Wolfpack started the season with some publications even including them in their preseason top-25. However, an opening game loss to Tennessee quickly undid the high hopes that the Raleigh-faithful had. The Wolfpack would rebound and win their next 3 games before dropping their ACC opener to Miami. NC State didn’t stay down for long as they beat Florida State the following week and followed it up with a win over Maryland before dropping their next two in a row. They ended the season by winning two of their last three games including a season-ending triumph over Boston College.

The question that everyone would like to know is what NC State team is going to show up an play Vanderbilt? Will it be the team that held things together to beat Florida State, the ACC’s best team, or will it be the team that laid an egg against one of the ACC’s worst teams, Virginia?

Predominantly the NC State offense runs through their passing game. The Wolfpack finished the regular season throwing for an average of 304.0 yards per game which was good for not only second in the ACC behind Clemson, but also 20th nationally. While those numbers were impressive, their rushing statistics were just as putrid. The Wolfpack rushed for nearly 117 yards per game which was good for 9th in the ACC but 108th nationally. Teams were able to key on quarterback Mike Glennon and the Wolfpack receivers and place very little emphasis on the running attack. If NC State hopes to win this contest, they will have to be on their game offensively because Vanderbilt maintains one of the best defenses in the SEC, a conference with defensive stalwarts like Alabama, LSU, South Carolina, and Florida. In fact, Vanderbilt gave up the fewest yards of any team in the SEC (2110 yards). It should be an interesting chess match to see how the NC State passing game will matriculate down the field against the Vanderbilt defense that doesn’t allow many passing yards.

NC State will be playing the game with a new coach. Northern Illinois’s Dave Doeren was hired at the beginning of the month to replace Tom O’Brien. Even though the Wolfpack finished the regular season with a winning record, university officials felt as though the program had grown state and a new voice was needed to restore the program to its once lofty status among ACC elites. Coach Doeren will not be coaching the team in the bowl game. That task will fall to offensive coordinator Dana Bible.

Vanderbilt, playing just a short drive from their campus will be looking for the program’s 9th victory for the first time since 1915! Their 8 regular season wins are the most for a Commodore’s squad since 1982. Many had written this team off once it started 2-4 with losses to South Carolina, Northwestern, Georgia, and Florida. However, Vanderbilt went on to win their remaining six games to enter their bowl as one of the hottest team in the country. This team possesses a lot of firepower and are led by a dynamic running back Zac Stacy. Most would consider Vanderbilt a mediocre offense ranking in the middle of the pack nationally in terms of both rushing and passing the football. What isn’t suspect is the Commodores defense. Vanderbilt ranks 18th nationally in total defense allowing just over 326 yards per game. Their defense is also only allowing a 14th best nationally 18.3 points per game. If the game remains close, Vanderbilt also sports the most accurate kicker in the SEC, junior Carey Spear having made 19 of 22 FGs this season.

Dec 31, 2011; Memphis, TN, USA; Vanderbilt Commodores cheerleaders during the game against the Cincinnati Bearcats at the Liberty Bowl Memorial Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Spruce Derden-USA TODAY Sports

The Commodore’s head coach, James Franklin, once thought to be a candidate for the Penn State head coaching job before Bill O’Brien was hired, has a two-year record of 14-11 as they head into the bowl game. While that may not seem like an overly impressive mark, consider, the 14 wins by a Vanderbilt coach over his first two years at the school is the best since Steve Sloan won 12 games in 1973-74. Coach Franklin has this Commodore program headed in the right direction. A few more impact recruits, and this team could be a force to be reckoned with in the SEC East. The five conference wins tied the most wins Vanderbilt ever had in the SEC with the 1935 squad (only their fourth year in the SEC!).

Both teams enter this game with much to play for. For NC State, they want to finish the season on a high note and head into the 2013 campaign with new head coach Dave Doeren riding a positive note. For Vanderbilt, a 9th win would mean so much for a program that has been synonymous with mediocrity for so long. Look for both teams to come out with a lot of emotion in this one!

PLAYERS TO WATCH

Vanderbilt revolves their offense around senior Zac Stacy. On the year, Stacy ran for 1034 yards, accounting for over 50% of the Vanderbilt rushing yards. Along with his 1000 yards rushing season, Stacy also posted a team-high 9 TDs as well as catching nine passes for 193 yards. He is certainly the player to watch for Vanderbilt. To be certain, Earl Wolff and Brandan Bishop, NC State’s leading tacklers, will have to keep one eye on Stacy.

When Vanderbilt isn’t running the ball, senior Jordan Rodgers, the younger brother of Green Bay Packers Aaron Rodgers, is slinging the ball. On the year Rodgers threw for 2431 yards and 13 TDs while only throwing 5 INTs. He has the knack for protecting the ball. Rodgers has thrown for at least 200 yards in all but three games this season (one of which he was inactive). Don’t be surprised to see Vanderbilt throw the ball in the neighborhood of 20-25 times. The ability of the Commodores to vary their offensive play-calling is one reason they have been successful this year. Both Rodgers and Stacy have the prowess and maturity to be vocal leaders for this Vanderbilt offensive squad.

On defense, Vanderbilt is led by Javon Marshall and Kenny Ladler, both of who are in the defensive secondary. Normally it doesn’t bode well when your leading tacklers are from the defensive backfield, but these two are different from the average players. Both are extremely active all around the field. In fact, both are in the top-10 in solo tackles.

Vanderbilt’s leading sack man is junior linebacker Chase Garnham who had 5.5 sacks. The Vanderbilt linebackers are extremely athletic. They can rush the passer, something Garnham likes to do, or they can drop into coverage. While Vanderbilt has only registered 28 sacks on the season (7th in the SEC), they are able to place enough pressure on the quarterback to force them into bad decisions. The Commodores rank first in the SEC with 93 tackles for loss (tackles behind the line of scrimmage including sacks). This just shows how fast and versatile the defensive lineman like senior Rob Lohr and junior Walker May have been this year. Look for Vanderbilt to continually hound Wolfpack quarterback Mike Glennon all evening.

Speaking of Mike Glennon, the NC State Wolfpack quarterback, he led the ACC is passing yards per game with 304. Not only did he lead the ACC in passing yards per game, but he also led the ACC in passing yards with 3648. He ranked second in the conference to Clemson’s Tajh Boyd in TD passes with 30. Suffice it to say the Wolfpack passing attack is what drives the offense. Glennon has thrown for over 400 yards three times this season, remarkably, all in defeats. Also, he has thrown four or more TDs in a game three times and those were defeats as well. And, in all but one game he has managed to throw for at least 200 yards. How Vanderbilt tries to counteract his throwing ability will be one of the game’s interesting little twists.

If Glennon is wracking up all of those passing yards, that means someone has to be be catching the passes. For NC State, the primary receivers for Glennon are Quintin Payton who led the team in receptions (48) and yards (761 yards), Tobais Palmer who was second on the team in receptions (46), yards (670), and TD receptions (6), and Bryan Underwood who led the team in TD catches with 10. TE Mario Carter has also been a favorite receiver of Glennon’s. On the year, he made 31 catches for 333 yards and 2 scores. Look for him to be more involved in the passing game as the Vanderbilt DBs will be trying to blanket the Wolfpack receivers.

As was mentioned earlier, the Wolfpack were led in tackles by two defensive backs, Earl Wolff and Brandan Bishop. Both registered 99 or more tackles and were two of the top-3 tackling defensive backs in the ACC.

On the defensive line look for Darryl Cato-Bishop and Art Norman to impose their will on the Commodore offensive linemen. Both men combined for 12 sacks on the year to lead the team. T.Y. McGill also added 4 sacks. The pressure that the DL are able to bring allowed the defensive backs to play more aggressively on the wide receivers. As a result, NC State led the ACC in interceptions (16). In fact, David Amerson was tied for the conference lead in INTs with 5. Bishop and Justin Burris both had 3 INTs each. Look for the secondary of the Wolfpack to very active and aggressive with the Commodore receivers. In turn, that could lead to a couple of picks of Jordan Rodgers.

PREDICTION

Vanderbilt – 23

NC State – 17

Evil Bill O’Brien’s Weekly Pick Six To Go – Week 13

evilbillobrien — Wed, 21 Nov 2012 13:25:47 +0000

A 3-3 week last week after Kansas State choked, Wisky couldn’t hold on to the ball and Rutgers snuck out with a 10-3 win. Well done, welcome to the Big Ten. The plus side is USC picked up their 4th loss. The nightmare that is Lane Kiffin’s coaching ability struck again. How that guy has found 4 losses with that talent is a feat it itself.

Michigan (+4) at Ohio State

Jim Delany’s favorite game of the year and this year should be good. Part of me wants to see Ohio State remain undefeated and waste a perfect season, but the other part, which is me most of the time, wants to see them lose. Denard Robinson’s career comes to a close, but with injuries, his role has changed. I am not sure it will be enough as Meyer gets his 1st and last undefeated season.

Ohio State 29 Michigan 21

Florida (+7) at Florida State

I have seen a few projections that have FLA possibly sneaking into the mythical National Championship (MNC) game. I think FSU will end those dream scenarios for FLA and then be looking from the outside in as a 1 loss not in the MNC game.

Florida State 27 Florida 22

Notre Dame (-6) at USC

My goodness, this is terrible. One 1 hand, the thought of Notre Dame in the MNC game is nauseating. On the other hand, Kiffin losing 5 games is such a great thought. Barkley is out, but the benefit is that Kiffin may not have damaged the QB yet with his stupidity.

Notre Dame 17 USC 0 points, 0 class

Stanford (+1) at UCLA

I respect these teams for beating USC. Stanford lost that game to Notre Dame because they went in a shell and that is inexcusable. Therefore, my logic tells me they will lose this game.

UCLA 26 Stanford 24

Oklahoma State (+9) at Oklahoma

Oklahoma’s defense took last week off vs that terribly coached West Virginia team. I cannot envision a scenario where Okie State wins on the road. Medium-Sized game Bob runs away with one here.

Oklahoma 38 Oklahoma State 21

Upset Special

Rutgers (+2) at Pitt

Rutgers is ranked and Pitt is a sub .500 team, but that is not how it works with these games. Pitt is awful, but favored so this is hardly and upset, but since Rutgers is ranked, it will be. Rutgers has no business joining the B1G, so they will falter and everyone can add their B1G jokes here.

Pitt 17 Rutgers 16

Follow Evil Bill O’Brien on Twitter!

Evil Bill O’Brien is in no way affiliated with Penn State University or head football coach Bill O’Brien.

VBR Against The Spread-Week 12

Matt de Bear — Fri, 16 Nov 2012 17:00:26 +0000

I’m baaaaaack! After relinquishing my duties to Tim last week (by the way, public thanks to Mr. Tolley for stepping in), I’ve returned to my post at the helm of our gambling support group. Last week was kind to the entire group, with everyone finishing over .500. Tim lead the way at 4-1, while Matt, Craig and Corey all came in at 3-2. Matt maintains a slim one game lead at 27-28 overall, with Tim at 26-29. Corey is lurking just 3 games behind at 24-31, and Craig trying to get back into things at 20-35. Let’s take a look at last week’s action.

Florida State (-14) 28 at Virginia Tech 22

Matt – Florida State (L)

Tim – Virginia Tech (W)

Craig – Florida State (L)

Corey – Virginia Tech (L)

Northwestern 31 at Michigan (-11) 38

Matt – Northwestern (W)

Tim – Northwestern (W)

Craig – Northwestern (W)

Corey – Northwestern (W)

Arizona State 17 at USC (-7.5) 38

Matt – Arizona State (L)

Tim – USC (W)

Craig – USC (W)

Corey – USC (W)

West Virginia 34 at Oklahoma State (-7.5) 55

Matt – Oklahoma State (W)

Tim – Oklahoma State (W)

Craig – Oklahoma State (W)

Corey – West Virginia (L)

Louisville (-3) 26 at Syracuse 45

Matt – Syracuse (W)

Tim – Louisville (L)

Craig – Louisville (L)

Corey – Louisville (L)

Onto this week’s slate of games, which were picked for the express purpose of padding my lead (and with Monday night’s spreads).

Week #12 College Football Ups and Downs – Underrated/Overrated

Corey Hunter — Fri, 16 Nov 2012 11:10:23 +0000

As we head into the final few weeks of the regular season, our underrated/overrated segment takes another new twist. Last week, I used this space to highlight a few teams that seemed to either be a disappointment based on their pre-season hype or have been a pleasant surprise and have perhaps overachieved based on what was expected this year.

This week I want to tackle (no pun intended!) a more difficult topic and look at individual players across the country that have underperformed or overperformed based on what pre-season hype had indicated. Certainly this is very subjective and many players will be left off the list in both categories, but I thought it might be fun to see who may or may not have met expectations.

Underachievers:

Nov 8, 2012; Blacksburg, VA, USA; Virginia Tech Hokies quarterback Logan Thomas (3) looks to pass in the second quarter at Lane Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Bob Donnan-US PRESSWIRE

Logan Thomas – QB Virginia Tech:

The Hokies were supposed to contend for the ACC title and possibly even a national title. Those hopes went out the window early this season, and the once formidable Hokies are playing for their post-season lives. Part of the reason they have struggled to win games this year is the lack-luster play of their junior signal caller Logan Thomas.

Thomas was expected to be one the ACC’s leading passers, and while he 7th in the league in passing yards per game, he has been too inconsistent, especially in the bigger games. Even more shocking is his inability to lead his team back when they are trailing.

On the season Thomas has thrown for 2,407 yards but his completion percentage is a mere 53.6% (171/319). He has thrown 14 TDs, but he has also thrown for 14 INTs. A 1:1 TD-to-INT ratio is not going to get it done for a team that should have at least won the ACC’s Coastal Division.

While much of the season has passed, Thomas can still prove that 2012 is not a harbinger of things to come. His team needs to win its final two games to make it to a bowl. The games are winnable (Boston College and Virginia), but to do so, Thomas will have to be the leader that head coach Frank Beamer and the rest of the Hokies know that they have in their midst.

Oct 13, 2012; Seattle, WA, USA; Southern California Trojans tailback Silas Redd (25) carries the ball against the Washington Huskies at CenturyLink Field. USC defeated Washington 24-14. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee/Image of Sport-US PRESSWIRE

Silas Redd – RB USC:

Many that read this article will assume that I’m placing Redd on this list simply out of spite, seeing he spurned the Nittany Lions after their sanctions to go to the seemingly lavish lifestyle of the USC Trojans and a shot at the national title. Well, I can tell you that is not the case!

If we compare stats from this year to his stats from last year at Penn State, you will find in most statistical categories his numbers have receded from where they were at one year ago. In 2011 for Penn State, Redd rushed 244 times for 1,241 yards. He averaged 5.1 yards per carry and scored 7 TDs. This year for USC, Redd has carries the ball only 135 times for 732 yards. His average per carry is slightly better at 5.4 ypc, and his number of rushing TDs are modestly up (9). At neither Penn State nor USC has Redd been used as a pass-catching back.

Some of the disparity in the numbers is the type of offense that Penn State and USC run and the personnel that each teams possesses, but in the end, Redd has not turned out to be the dynamic running back that Lane Kiffin can give the ball to and ride for an entire game. This year alone Redd has only had two games where he has carried the ball 20 times or more. in 2011 at Penn State, he had 5 games where he toted the rock 20 times or more. In fact he carried the ball 30 times against Illinois.

Redd has begun ceding carries to senior Curtis McNeal. In the Trojans’ last game against Arizona State, Redd was unable to play due to injury. McNeal rushed 31 times for 163 yards and 2 scores. Redd is questionable this week against rival UCLA. What isn’t questionable is Redd’s lack of game-changing bursts. To be sure, Redd is a fine running back that nearly every team in the country would love to have on their roster. However, he is not the difference-maker that USC thought they were getting when he agreed to transfer in August.

November 10, 2012; Ann Arbor, MI, USA; Michigan Wolverines running back Fitzgerald Toussaint (28) runs the ball for a touchdown against the Northwestern Wildcats in the third quarter at Michigan Stadium. Michigan won 38-31 in overtime. Mandatory Credit: Rick Osentoski-US PRESSWIRE

Fitzgerald Toussaint – RB Michigan

Fitzgerald Toussaint was supposed to be the next workhorse back for the Wolverines, taking some of the pressure to run ball from Denard Robinson. One problem – someone forgot to tell Fitzy that he was supposed to do that. Toussaint has been virtually invisible in most of Michigan’s games this year. He has not amassed a 100-yard rushing game in any one of his contests this year, though he was close this past Saturday against Northwestern (95 yards), and he has a little over half of the rushing scores (5) that he had all of last year (9).

Toussaint started off 2012 on suspension from an off-season off the field arrest. He therefore missed the Alabama game, but he has played in every game since. His number of rushes should be about the same as they were last year, but his offensive output will be well below what he did last season. Last year he was a 1,000 yard back, but this year he will likely be lucky to get to 700 yards rushing. He has done a tad more in the passing game than last year, but the numbers are fairly comparable.

To me it doesn’t look like Toussaint is running downhill as much as he was last year. Last season he could get to the second level by punishing defensive lineman and linebackers on his way to big gains. This year, those linemen are able to corral him at or near the line of scrimmage. His longest run of 2012 was a 50-yard gainer and that was last week. The explosiveness just doesn’t seem to be there this year, and that has really hurt Michigan.

The Wolverines are still one of the better team in the Big Ten because of Denard Robinson and the much-improved play of their defense, but most teams are not scared of Michigan because they are so one-dimensional. Michigan will likely step up in class come bowl season and play a team that will be better than they are. How Michigan can involve Toussaint in the gameplan and his effectiveness will go a long way in determining how Michigan fares.

VBR Against The Spread-Week 11

Tim Tolley — Fri, 09 Nov 2012 00:21:27 +0000

This is usually the part where Matt says something like “Last week I was awesome and I caught Tim in the overall standings and blah blah blah blah…” However, I’m at the helm this week and I think it’s only fair to point out that Matt gets to sort through the games and decide which ones he likes the most. Then, he makes myself, Corey and Craig pick games that we have no clue about. A few days later, he hits twitter with boastful comments about how I’m dumb and don’t read well. Well not this time, Matty DB!

Overall Standings:

Matt:- 24-26

Tim: 22-28

Corey: 21-29

Craig: 17-33

Oct 20, 2012; Miami, FL, USA; Florida State Seminoles quarterback EJ Manuel (3) drops back to pass against Miami Hurricanes at Sun Life Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Steve Mitchell-US PRESSWIRE

Florida State (-14) at Virginia Tech

Virginia Tech has struggle of late but will look to salvage their season with a marquee win at home over the Seminoles. Will the night time crowd of Blacksburg be enough to help the Hokies keep it close?

Matt – Florida State

This might just be my disdain for VT showing though, but I’d take Florida State by 24 in this if I could. Sure, VT is at home on a Thursday, and 14 is a lot of points, but I just don’t think they’re that good. FSU is as talented as most teams in the country, and I think that carries them.

Tim – Virginia Tech

I’ve been burnt by Va Tech before this year and I may be setting myself up for failure, but I like the home crowd in Blacksburg, at night, on a national stage. I wouldn’t bet VT to win, but I like them to stay within two touchdowns.

Corey – Virginia Tech

Wow! Who would have ever thought that we would see a Frank Beamer-led Hokies team a 2 TD underdog at home?!?! Oh how the mighty have fallen. With a loss to Florida State Thusday night, the Hokies would need to win their remaining two games to become bowl eligible (@ BC, home with Virginia). Either way, I just don’t see how the Hokies lay down and fold under the prime-time spotlight of this big game with the rival Seminoles. This game is usually a preview of the ACC Championship game, now its just another stop of the Seminoles BCS train. I like the Seminoles to escape with a hard-fought win, but the Techsters to cover the 2 TD spread.

Craig – Florida State

Normally I would say take VT with the points, and though they have improved, I just think FSU is much more talented. VT’s offense has struggled and I don’t see them matching the fire power FSU has.

Did Silas Redd Make a Mistake by Transferring to USC?

Tim Tolley — Mon, 05 Nov 2012 11:15:03 +0000

Since USC first lost to Stanford, the discussion has been there. It’s prominent at tailgates. It’s mentioned on Twitter. I’ve even heard it in the pressbox. This tweet, from a Gopher alum/ex Baltimore Raven who apparently re-located to southern California, tells me that the discussion happens in other places, as well.

Silas Redd is pretty much showing out this season. #PennState would not have showcased his talent with that shamble they have goin on

— Ron Johnson (@ItsRonJohnson) November 3, 2012

Well, wait…what?

Let’s hash this out, once and for all. Or, until the next time. We’ll get back to Ron Johnson’s tweet in a moment.

Part of the reason Silas transferred was for a shot at winning a championship. That’s not going to happen now. A Rose Bowl is still possible but is a longshot right now. He will get to play in a bowl, which he would not have been able to do at Penn State. However, USC’s record of 6-3 doesn’t lend itself to the idea that the bowl they land in will be all that prestigious.

To sum that situation up, Redd left his friends and teammates as well as luxury of having his parents at every game to play in a lack luster bowl game. Hind sight is 20/20, but he didn’t leave for that.

Now, back to Mr. Johnson, I’m not sure what in the world he was referring to. We’ll break it down, by each segment.

First, Mr. Johnson says Redd is “showing out this year.” When he sent the tweet, Redd was in the midst of a 92 yard rushing game that the Trojans lost by two scores. Let’s take a look at the year he’s having. In one game, he had just 3 carries before leaving with an injury. In his other 8 games, he is averaging just under 90 yards per game and has 9 touchdowns in them. Solid by any standards, though not exactly “showing out.”

The 2nd part of the tweet, “Penn State would not have showcased his talent with that shamble they have goin on” is a bit confusing. Penn State has the same record as USC, so there isn’t really a “shamble.” As far as showcasing his talents, I actually think that could have been done better at Penn State than USC. There’s no way of quantifying it, statistically, but here’s what we have. Redd is averaging just short of 90 yards per game in the 8 games he has played significant snaps. Penn State’s leading rusher, backup fullback-turned halfback Zach Zwinak, has taken meaningful snaps in just 6 games. In those, he is averaging just over 90 yards per game. There’s no denying that Redd is the more talented ball-carrier. What is worth debating, is how many more yards he would have in those games.

Silas Redd is sharing the ball at USC with guys like Robert Woods and Heisman candidate Marquise Lee, not to mention 1,000 yard rusher Curtis McNeal. At Penn State, he would likely be the focal point of the offense. On top of that, Penn State would almost certainly be at least 7-2, a game better than USC. Remember, PSU started Derek Day in the one point loss to Virginia.

If the term “showcase” was referring to something else, like exposure, that gets a little tricky. The move to USC has undoubtedly given Redd notoriety on the west coast that he didn’t have before, but what is that worth? USC has played a couple games in prime time, but they’ve also played some late-night games that few people on the east coast have seen. At the same time, Penn State has played 7 of their 9 games on national television and have played the majority of their games at 3:30 or later. Did he get more national exposure from a transfer than he would have from a highly-productive season at Penn State? Who knows. More importantly, which would have been more beneficial to him and his career?

While Pac 12 exposure might be nice, it doesn’t get you any rings and it doesn’t help your draft status, two very important things to any college football player.

You and I can’t say whether Silas Redd made a mistake. Only he knows what regrets he has inside. Hell, he may have none. Southern California isn’t the worst place in the world to be in November.

The intangibles and benefits from the transfer are impossible to judge. However, there is one question that can be asked: What has he really gained from the move?

For all of the latest on the Penn State Nittany Lions, follow VBR Lead Editor Tim Tolley on Twitter.

College Football: Sunday Reflections

Tim Tolley — Sun, 04 Nov 2012 13:09:45 +0000

This isn’t something that I usually do, but I had two TVs running for most of the day yesterday and noticed a lot of things while watching football during the day. Plus, my kids had me up at like 6:15 because they think time changes are dumb and they want red, blue, orange, yellow and green flavored Os in milk.

We’ll start with the day games:

I once voted Florida as the number one team…this year. I loved the schedule they had played and was driving the Jeff Driskel bandwagon. I’ve since done a swan dive off of that train and Florida is probably not as good as I had thought.
Clemson is a sneaky 8-1, whose only loss came to Florida State. Not sure why they aren’t ranked higher. That’s a BCS-caliber team.
Texas A&M might be the third best team in the SEC and Johnny Manziel is my favorite player who doesn’t wear blue. They’ll battle Alabama next week closer than people will expect.
Louisville is probably pretty good. And not just because they beat Temple by 30 like everybody else does. Because they beat everybody else, too. The season ender against Rutgers should be a good one.
West Virginia is now 5-3 and they still have to play Oklahoma, Oklahoma State and Iowa State. They have the 119th ranked scoring defense. Sad to waste a talent like Geno Smith with a defense that doesn’t exist.
I’m not going to kill Notre Dame for barely beating Pitt even though they probably didn’t deserve to win. They’re still undefeated and that’s going to come with hiccups. However, the team that showed up yesterday can’t expect to beat USC. They better get it together.
Kansas State is really good but Klein’s injury is bad news.
Iowa is terrible.
USC can beat Oregon. I know…they didn’t…but if they get a rematch, and Monte Kiffin can figure out a scheme to just force a couple punts or a turnover, Oregon didn’t really stop USC either. USC has yet to play their best football. Plus, all the pressure will be on Oregon.
Zach Mettenberg earned respect last night. He played his best game against the best competition they’ll see.
Kudos to Bama for being able to win that kind of game. I don’t want to pile on McCarron but he has beat this team…in the National Championship. Why was he crying last night?
Oregon State is going to beat up somebody in a non-BCS bowl. They’re a heckuva team.
Yesterday’s 5 team parlay winner: Akron +22, Miami (OH) +4, Georgia Tech -8, Texas A&M -3, Oregon State -6.

For all of the latest on the Penn State Nittany Lions, follow VBR Lead Editor Tim Tolley on Twitter.

VBR Against The Spread-Week 10

Matt de Bear — Fri, 02 Nov 2012 11:00:32 +0000

Last week went about as well for the VBR staff as it did for the Lions against Ohio State. Only one finished with a winning record, and we had yet another 0-5 week. Corey continued his 2nd half rebound with a 3-2 week, with Matt going 2-3, Tim at 1-4, and Craig going winless. For the season, Matt has drawn even with Tim at 21-24, with Corey just a couple games back at 19-26 and Craig sitting at 15-30. Let’s take a look at the carnage:

Cincinnati 31 at Louisville (-4) 34 (OT)

Matt – Louisville (L)

Tim – Louisville (L)

Craig – Louisville (L)

Corey – Cincinnati (W)

Mississippi State 7 at Alabama (-23.5) 38

Matt – Alabama (W)

Tim – Alabama (W)

Craig – Mississippi State (L)

Corey – Mississippi State (L)

Florida (-6.5) 9 vs. Georgia 17

Matt – Georgia (W)

Tim – Florida (L)

Craig – Florida (L)

Corey – Florida (L)

Notre Dame 30 at Oklahoma (-10.5) 13

Matt – Oklahoma (L)

Tim – Oklahoma (L)

Craig – Oklahoma (L)

Corey – Notre Dame (W)

Michigan 9 at Nebraska (-2.5) 23

Matt – Michigan (L)

Tim – Michigan (L)

Craig – Michigan (L)

Corey – Nebraska (W)

Evil Bill O’Brien’s Weekly Pick Six To Go – Week 9

evilbillobrien — Wed, 24 Oct 2012 20:40:15 +0000

After a 3-3 week, I need to re-evaluate things. 1. Never pick Temple to win a big game. I should have known better even though it was my upset special. 2. Texas A&M is not a team to rely on. They can get to big leads, but they blow them and their coach is overrated and nowhere to the level of Evil Bill. I won Florida, Oregon and Michigan but also lost that WVU game. I took a shot at WVU and their overrated coach on twitter Saturday night. Funny how the early season media darling coaches are all overrated.

Cincinnati (+4) at Louisville

I think this is a big game, or at least it would have been had Cincy not lost to Toledo. Again, EBOB made a negative fashionable by losing to a MAC school. For PSU, losing doesn’t impact our bowl game, but these coaches don’t realize this and just want to copy the master. Louisville is overrated, but they will win this at the Papa John’s dome.

Louisville 34 Cincy 24

Michigan (-2.5) at Nebraska

I probably should have lost on my Michigan pick last week because if Brady Hoke had any integrity, he would have forfeited a win with 4 FGs and 0 TDs. Of all the B1G coaches, Hoke doesn’t bother me yet, but that is probably because PSU rarely plays Michigan. Pelini, on the other hand, would be better served at a Circus than a sideline. Michigan is a hard team to figure out but I think the running QB will out do the shot putting QB

Michigan 24 (8 FGs) Nebraska 16

Florida (-6.5) at Georgia

I think Florida is going to lose, but I am just not sure again if this is the week. Much like ND last week, I can see a struggle here, but I think they will win. Georgia is a mystery to me because I just don’t watch them play. They have not matched with my schedule all year so I am picking blind here.

Florida 26 Georgia 18

USC (-6.5) at Arizona

As always, I was tempted to pick this as my upset special and again, I just can’t. I think Kiffin will get outcoached as always, but I think USC will overcome a few fumbles from their star transfer and pull one out.

USC 33 Arizona 29

Notre Dame (+9) at Oklahoma

Buck stops here for ND. After some squeakers, Oklahoma looks like they have recovered from their early loss and are ready to stomp some leprechauns. If ND only had a LB as good as Mauti.

Oklahoma 27 Notre Dame 17

Upset Special

Oregon State (-4) at Washington

Washington was my upset special earlier this year vs. Stanford and have done nothing since. Mike Riley is getting pub for Coach of the Year and that needs to end, much like the Todd Graham nonsense from last week. I need that ridiculous list to thin out so only BO’B is left standing.

Washington 34 Oregon State 31 (OT)

Season Record 33-14 (4-4 on Upset Specials)
-

Follow Evil Bill O’Brien on Twitter!

Evil Bill O’Brien is in no way associated with Penn State University or head coach Bill O’Brien.

USC’s Lane Kiffin, Michigan’s Brady Hoke Take Different Approaches With Committed Recruits

Tim Tolley — Sun, 14 Oct 2012 21:11:05 +0000

In a recent conversation with a committed Michigan player, I asked if he planned on taking any visits this fall. He responded “No visits, I plan on following Coach Hoke’s rules.” Those rules, simply put, declare that if you commit, that’s the end of your recruitment. If a player starts looking around at other schools, Hoke and his staff will start looking around at other players to fill that spot in the class. It’s not as brash as it may sound, but Hoke wants players to be 100% sure before they commit. Granted, that’s not as easy to do when a class, like Michigan’s is filling up nearly 9 months before signing day, but the gesture is still fair.

Yesterday, a couple of players who are currently committed to USC, Chris Hawkins and Max Redfield, were in South Bend for official visits to Notre Dame. Michael Castillo of ReignOfTroy.com tells me that USC head coach Lane Kiffin actually urges recruited commits to take other visits. This could be for a number of reasons.

One, it assures that the kids are where they want to be. Another part of it could be that USC has limited scholarships. If a player is going to move on, it’s better that they do it soon to give Kiffin and his staff time to fill that spot. It also could be a cocky statement, as though nowhere is better than USC, and “you’ll come back.” Look at his class-he may be right. Either way, it gives the recruits a chance to see other schools and make a well-rounded, final decision.

While they may be on complete opposite ends of the recruiting spectrum, both styles are effective and fair. Effective because both teams boast current recruiting classes ranked in the top 5. Fair because at the end of the day, these kids don’t sign letters of intent until February, meaning college coaches hold no true power over them up until them.

On the surface, Lane Kiffin’s angle seems like the softer, more gentle way to handle high school seniors. However, I’d imagine the Michigan fans strongly prefer the way Hoke handles them. Fans don’t like decommitments and eliminating the idea of visits is a good way to cut down on the chance of a decommitment.

As a college football fan yourself, which of these two strategies would you prefer your head coach to use?

Defected Penn Staters May Deter Future Players From Doing the Same

Tim Tolley — Tue, 18 Sep 2012 10:10:09 +0000

Regardless of what some of the Penn State internet writers would have you believe, not every Penn State performance is a tryout for “free agency” in the offseason. In fact, shows like the one that Allen Robinson is putting on this season may reinforce players decisions to remain at Penn State. Luckily for the current team, the players who left in July/August are proving to the current roster that the grass isn’t always greener.

First, Khairi Fortt (Cal) and Anthony Fera (Texas) are hurt, so we’ll take them out of the conversation.

Tight end Kevin Haplea left Penn State for Florida State, where he has one reception for three yards through three games. Meanwhile, five Penn State tight ends have at least one catch, including converted quarterback Paul Jones. Three of them have touchdowns. If you’re a tight end at Penn State, you’re going to see the field, you’re going to get targets and you’re going to get touchdowns. Still, Haplea does get to live in Florida and he does play on a good team.

Quarterback Rob Bolden left spring practice as the third string QB and transferred to LSU. He is listed as the third string QB on LSU’s roster, however, three different signal callers have thrown passes for the Tigers, and none of them are named Rob Bolden. He may be looking at a redshirt season. At Penn State, Matt McGloin is playing the best ball of his career and true freshman Steven Bench has moved up the depth chart and saw action against Virginia. O’Brien has shown that he will put the best players on the field regardless of everything else.

Justin Brown left for Oklahoma, where it was expected that playing in an offense with Landry Jones would bolster his draft stock and give him a shot at a championship. Through two games, Brown has six catches for 87 yards. Allen Robinson has had that many yards in each of the first three games. Would it be wise for a receiver to leave an offense where he is targeted double-digit times per game?

Silas Redd left for the chance to play for a national championship at USC. In their loss to Stanford last week, Redd had 13 carries for 17 yards. His dream of a national championship is still alive, but it will be an uphill climb. More people know Silas’ name now than they did three months ago, but that only goes so far.

Ryan Nowicki has not yet played in Illinois.

Tim Buckley hasn’t seen the field at North Carolina State.

Of course, these decisions are made based on more than just football. It’s small-minded of me or anyone else *COUGH*Ron Musselman*COUGH* to pretend otherwise. Ryan Nowicki had friends in the Chicago area. Tim Buckley, who would likely have seen significant snaps at Penn State by now, is from North Carolina. Redd, Brown, Bolden and Haplea all have shots (some more distant than others) at winning a national championship. They’ll likely all play, or at least travel to a bowl this season, as well.

On the other end of it, Silas Redd has been vocal about the negative aspect of his parents not being able to be his games. A transfer means leaving your teammates, friends and home. It means getting acclimated to new surroundings and a new campus, all while learning a new playbook and forming new relationships. It’s so much more than the “I’m good, they’re good, this will be easy” mentality that many people view it as.

Will guys like Allen Robinson and Deion Barnes be recruited this offseason? You better believe it. However, they should take a second to remember why it is that these schools are calling and who helped put them in that position. When you’re “the man” at one place, leaving to be “just another guy” at another may not be the best route. For the present or the future.

For all of the latest on the Penn State Nittany Lions, follow VBR Lead Editor Tim Tolley on Twitter.

FanSided Top 25 – How VBR Voted

Matt de Bear — Mon, 17 Sep 2012 17:00:39 +0000

Earlier today, our friends over at Saturday Biltz released the latest edition of the FanSided Top 25. You can view the full poll HERE. Both Tim and Matt have a vote in this poll and in the interest of openness, transparency, and mostly to get ridiculed for our rankings, we will be sharing our weekly ballots with our loyal readers here at VBR. Leave your comments and threats in the comments section below!

The big moves this week came from Stanford and USC, coming off the Cardinal’s upset win on Saturday night in Palo Alto. Both Tim and Matt had the Trojans ranked second going into the game, while Tim had Stanford #21 and Matt did not rank them. My how things changed. Notre Dame continues to shoot up both rankings, sitting at 3-0 and coming off a dominant prime time win against Michigan State. Things look to shake up again this coming weekend with Florida State and Clemson meeting in Tallahassee, Michigan traveling to South Bend to face the Fighting Irish, and both Kansas State and Oklahoma facing their first big test of the season as the Sooners and Wildcats meet in Norman. In a couple of “below the radar” games, Rich Rodriguez takes Arizona to Eugene to face Oregon, while Oregon State travels to the Rose Bowl to face the undefeated UCLA Bruins.

TIM

1. Alabama
2. LSU
3. Oregon
4. Oklahoma
5. Florida State
6. South Carolina
7. Georgia
8. Texas
9. Florida
10. West Virginia
11. Notre Dame
12. Clemson
13. Stanford
14. USC
15. Kansas State
16. Michigan
17. Michigan State
18. Ohio State
19. UCLA
20. TCU
21. Arizona
22. Louisville
23. Oregon State
24. Ohio
25. Rutgers

MATT

1. Alabama
2. LSU
3. Oklahoma
4. Oregon
5. South Carolina
6. Georgia
7. Clemson
8. Florida State
9. West Virginia
10. Texas
11. Notre Dame
12. Florida
13. Kansas State
14. Stanford
15. Ohio State
16. USC
17. Kansas State
18. TCU
19. Louisville
20. Arizona
21. UCLA
22. Oregon State
23. Michigan State
24. Nebraska
25. Northwestern

View last week’s polls HERE!

Week #3 College Football ViewPoint: What to Watch For

Corey Hunter — Fri, 14 Sep 2012 21:34:43 +0000

Most college football teams have played 2 games and are halfway through their non-conference slate. Some teams, especially those out of the SEC or Big East, have even begun conference play. No matter the situation, the action has been heating up, and the number of un-beatens is going down!

Week #3 offers more intriguing match-ups that could very well determine conference supremacy. For example, #1 Southern California will be traveling to Palo Alto, CA in a Pac-12 crossover game to take on #21 Stanford. The slate of games also features some SEC battles as #1 Alabama will make the trip to Little Rock to take on the Arkansas Razorbacks who are still licking their wounds after losing to UL-Monroe in OT last week. Also #18 Florida will be on the road again this week as they travel to Rocky Top (Knoxville, TN) to battle it out with SEC-East foe Tennessee. Finally, a rivalry game of sorts as #10 Michigan State looks for revenge as they play host to the #20 Fighting Irish of Notre Dame.

Before we proceed to week #3, lets take quick look back at my picks for week #2. In my “prime-3″ match-ups, I took Florida (+2), Missouri (+3.5), and Vanderbilt (-3.5). My ATS record for the week was 1-2 (Overall: 2-4) and my record SU for the week was 1-2 (Overall: 4-2). Florida was my lone win as they outlasted Texas A&M, while Missouri and Vanderbilt both fought valiantly but ran out of gas in the fourth quarter and came up a bit short. As always, I will go back to the drawing board and try to do better!

This week I will be taking a look at the following “prime-3″ match-ups: #20 Notre Dame at #10 Michigan State, #18 Florida at #23 Tennessee, and #1 USC at #21 Stanford. Each one offers interesting point/counterpoints and will provide the college football fan a unique viewing experience.

VBR Against The Spread-Week 3

Matt de Bear — Thu, 13 Sep 2012 16:00:48 +0000

After a pathetic showing in the season’s opening week, things picked up, at least a little bit, for the VBR forecasters. Matt lead the way with a 3-2 record, Tim went 2-3, and both Craig and Corey pulled out 1-4 records. After the first two weeks of the year, Matt leads the way at 4-6 overall, with Tim at 3-7, Corey at 2-8, and Craig bringing up the rear at 1-9. Here is how the staff did in last week’s action:

Georgia (-3.5) at Missouri

Matt – Georgia (W)

Tim – Missouri (L)

Craig – Missouri (L)

Corey – Missouri (L)

Wisconsin (-7.5) at Oregon State

Matt – Wisconsin (L)

Tim – Wisconsin (L)

Craig – Wisconsin (L)

Corey – Wisconsin (L)

Nebraska (-5) at UCLA

Matt – Nebraska (L)

Tim – Nebraska (L)

Craig – Nebraska (L)

Corey – Nebraska (L)

Florida at Texas A&M (-2)

Matt – Florida (W)

Tim – Florida (W)

Craig – Texas A&M (L)

Corey – Florida (W)

Iowa State at Iowa (-3.5)

Matt – Iowa State (W)

Tim – Iowa State (W)

Craig – Iowa State (W)

Corey – Iowa (L)

As always, spreads are as of Tuesday morning.

Around College Football-Week 2 Observations

Matt de Bear — Tue, 11 Sep 2012 00:00:56 +0000

After spending the opening weekend of the season on the road in Happy Valley for the Penn State-Ohio game, this past week was a chance to spend the afternoon (and evening) on the couch, in front of several TVs, and immerse myself in college football. Here are my five observations from the weekend that was.

Sept. 8, 2012; Corvallis, OR, USA; Oregon State Beavers defenders Ryan Murphy (25) and Castro Masaniai (98) and Andrew Seumalo (49) celebrate after stopping the Wisconsin Badgers on 4th and 1 during the second half at Reser Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jaime Valdez-US PRESSWIRE

Update: It WILL Be A Long Year For the Big 10

Last week I speculated that the Big 10 was in for another tough season. This weekend confirmed it. Besides Penn State’s hearbreaking loss to Virginia, Wisconsin, Nebraska, Purdue, Illinois, and Iowa also put up losses. The league’s only victories this weekend came over the likes of Central Florida, New Hampshire, UMass, Air Force, Central Michigan and Vanderbilt. In fact, the only two wins the Big 10 can claim against other “BCS” leagues are courtesy of Northwestern (Syracuse and Vanderbilt).

Michigan State and Ohio State are the only 2 teams that seem to be meeting early season expectations, and due to NCAA sanctions, only the Spartans are eligible for the post season. That September 29^th match up in East Lansing between MSU and the Buckeyes might as well be for the conference title*.

FanSided Top 25 – How VBR Voted

Tim Tolley — Mon, 10 Sep 2012 22:30:28 +0000

Earlier today, our friends over at Saturday Biltz released the second regular season edition of the FanSided Top 25. You can view the full poll HERE. Both Tim and Matt have a vote in this poll and in the interest of openness, transparency, and mostly to get ridiculed for our rankings, we will be sharing our weekly ballots with our loyal readers here at VBR. Leave your comments and threats in the comments section below!

Let me say, this is difficult to do this early in the season before teams have played more than one (in some cases, zero) meaningful games. Michigan is probably a top 15 team, talent-wise, but they’re 1-1 and held on to beat Air Force at home. How do you rank that? Florida State is a convincing 2-0, but have played two dismal opponents. How good are they? Bring on conference play!

TIM

1. Alabama
2. USC
3. LSU
4. Oklahoma
5. Oregon
6. Florida State
7. South Carolina
8. Georgia
9. Michigan State
10. Texas
11. West Virginia
12. Va Tech
13. Clemson
14. Kansas State
15. Florida
16. Michigan
17. Notre Dame
18. Ohio State
19. UCLA
20. TCU
21. Stanford
22. Louisville
23. Oregon State
24. Arkansas
25. Ohio

MATT

1.     Alabama
2.     USC
3.     LSU
4.     Oklahoma
5.     Oregon
6.     South Carolina
7.     Georgia
8.     Clemson
9.     Florida State
10. Michigan State
11. West Virginia
12. Texas
13. Notre Dame
14. Ohio State
15. Virginia Tech
16. Florida
17. Kansas State
18. TCU
19. Louisville
20. Arizona
21. Louisville
22. UCLA
23. Nebraska
24. Oregon State
25. Ohio

View last week’s polls HERE!

Around College Football-Five Weekend Observations

Matt de Bear — Mon, 03 Sep 2012 18:00:35 +0000

The opening week of the football season comes to an end later tonight with the Virginia Tech-Georgia Tech game. While there is still one game remaining, here are five observations from the games already in the books around the country.

Sep 1, 2012; Arlington, TX, USA; Alabama Crimson Tide running back T J Yeldon breaks a tackle during the fourth quarter of the game against the Michigan Wolverines at Cowboys Stadium. Alabama beat Michigan 41-14. Mandatory Credit: Tim Heitman-US PRESSWIRE

Alabama Is Good. Really Good.

A lot of the focus has gone on Michigan in the aftermath of the opening game blowout in Dallas. Yes, Michigan struggled, and they were in way over their heads against the defending national champs. But, credit an Alabama team that appears to have reloaded yet again. T.J. Yeldon, Jalston Fowler, and Eddie Lacy accounted for 209 yards on the ground and 2 touchdowns. Dee Millner moved from nickleback to starting CB and was dominant on Roy Roundtree all night, including 1 interception. The Tide’s front 7 was all over the place and never let Denard Robinson get anything going on the ground, turning him into a passing quarterback. It’s just one game, and we still don’t know just how good this Michigan team is, but it would appear that Alabama is not going to miss a beat in their bid to win a third title in four years.

Prediction Machine Says USC-Bama National Championship – What About Penn State’s Record?

Tim Tolley — Sat, 18 Aug 2012 10:45:10 +0000

Many have speculated about the outcome of Penn State’s 2012 season, following the loss of key contributors like Silas Redd and Anthony Fera. One of my favorite sites, PredictionMachine.com, has done the math.

The Predictalator is the most advanced sports forecasting software available today. The technology has the ability to account for all of the statistical interactions of the players (playing or not playing/injured), coaches, officials, fans (homefield advantage) and weather in each game. The Predictalator plays every game 50,000 times before it’s actually played. This provides PredictionMachine.com the ability to assign probabilities to the likelihood of just about any outcome occurring in any event as well as to project individual statistics and more including straight-up, against-the-spread and over/under pick percentages for each game.

So how does the Predictalator see Penn State’s 2012 season going? On average, Penn State wins 5.9 games and loses 6.1. That’s just a shade better than the 5.5 Over/Under win total floating around from Vegas.

PM breaks down every conference, going as far as predicting that Alabama will beat USC in the national championship, 56.5 percent of the 50,000 games, by an average score of 26.5-20.2

In the Big Ten, they have both Michigan and Ohio state winning 9.3 games, but with OSU ineligible for post season play, they predict Michigan to beat an 8.6 win Wisconsin team before losing to Oregon in the Rose Bowl, by a score of 41-33.

What does this mean? Well, the games still have to be played, but take a look at the stats:

Since launching in January 2010, this remarkable technology is over 60% against-the-spread with football Locks of the Week, over 60% ATS with Paul’s Picks in the NFL, college football and the NCAA Tournament, over 57% with “normal” or better picks all-time in the NFL, NBA and MLB combined and over 53% with all playable picks. And finally, with a perfect 2011 postseason, the Predictalator is now 20-3 against-the-spread in NFL playoff games. In 2011, college football “normal” or better O/U win total picks went 11-6 (65% O/U), while all ‘normal” or better O/U for games during the season went 74-48 (61% O/U).

Be sure to check back next week when the VBR staff makes our own predictions on the season, without the help of some fancy-smancy computer!

For all of the latest on the Penn State Nittany Lions, follow VBR Lead Editor Tim Tolley on Twitter.