TIME: Friday Dec. 28, 9:00 PM EST

TV: ESPN

LAS VEGAS LINES: Texas Tech -13; Over/Under 55 points

Tonight is the first bowl game involving a Big Ten Team – the Minnesota Golden Gophers.  The Gophers are in the Meineke Car Care of Texas Bowl in Houston Texas.  Their opponent, the Texas Tech Red Raiders and their high-flying offense led by quarterback Seth Doege.

Nov 24, 2012; Arlington, TX, USA; Texas Tech Red Raiders quarterback Seth Doege (7) throws a pass against the Baylor Bears during the game at Cowboys Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Tim Heitman-USA TODAY Sports

Texas Tech will be lead by interim coach Chris Thomsen who takes over the reigns from the recently departed Tommy Tuberville who left earlier this month to assume the same duties with the Cincinnati Bearcats.

On the other side line Minnesota Golden Gopher head coach Jerry Kill has led a resurgence of a team that has not made a bowl game since 2009 and has not won one since it defeated Alabama in the 2004 Music City Bowl.  In coach Kill’s two seasons at the helm of Minnesota, he has an overall record of 9-15, but his team has shown improvement from year 1 to year 2.  Last year his team only managed three wins while doubling that mark this year.  If the Gophers could cap off the 2012 year with a win over Texas Tech, the Gophers would finish over .500 for the first time since 2008.

Both teams enter having lost three of their last four including their last two games of the season.  Texas Tech limps into the game having lost four of their last five games including their last two games.  The Red Raiders started the season looking like they could be a surprise contender for the Big 12 title winning 6 of their first seven games including wins over #5 West Virginia and #23 TCU.  Then the wheels seemed to fall off.  The Red Raiders who boasted one of the top defenses in the country early on, started relinquishing points with great efficiency.  In their last 5 games, of which they won only once, they gave up at least 31 points in every game.  That type of defense will not get it done in a conference that led the nation in scoring offense.  How will Texas Tech respond when they have to defend the speedy Donnell Kirkwood and MarQueis Gray.

The Gophers have lost three of their last four including their last two games.  Like Texas Tech, Minnesota started of extremely hot winning their first four in a row with wins over UNLV and over Syracuse.  And, like Texas Tech, Minnesota then began a stretch where they faltered a bit.  Minnesota only posted a 2-6 conference record which was good for 5th in the Legend’s Division.  One aspect of the Golden Gophers game that has been overlooked coming into the bowl game is their pass defense.  The Gophers ranked 4th in the Big Ten and 11th nationally allowing only 178.5 yards passing per game.  They will have their hands full trying to slow down a Texas Tech passing offense that 1st in the Big 12 and 2nd nationally throwing for more than 360 yards per game.

How Jerry Kill and the Gophers are able to handle the passing game of Texas Tech will go a long way in determining their success in Houston.

PLAYERS TO WATCH

For Texas Tech, who are trying to win 8 games for the first time since 2010, they will rely heavily upon the arm of senior quarterback Seth Doege.  Doege sits 66 yards shy of passing for 4000 yards for the second consecutive season.  To go along with his nearly 4000 yards, he has also thrown for 38 TDs and only 14 INTs.  What may be even more impressive for Doege is his 70.4% completion percentage having thrown 496 times this season.  In fact, his completion percentage ranks 3rd nationally and his TDs rank 2nd in the nation.

More than likely you will be seeing Doege on Sundays in the near future.  He has a strong, accurate arm, and he makes sound decisions.  The one knock against Seth is his height.  He is only 6-1 and some teams may be hesitant to take a chance on him and his ability to see over the line.  If he does get a chance, son;t be surprised if he sticks in the NFL for years to come.

Oct 27, 2012; Minneapolis, MN, USA; Minnesota Golden Gophers wide receiver MarQueis Gray (5) carries the ball during the second quarter against the Purdue Boilermakers at TCF Bank Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Brace Hemmelgarn-USA TODAY Sports

Minnesota scat back / wide receiver / quarterback MarQueis Gray is one of the best in the Big Ten.  He has the ability to turn the momentum in a single play.  Gray was the Gophers “Mr Everything” as he started the year at quarterback throwing for 464 yards and 5 TDs.  He was hurt against Western Michigan and sat out the next two games.  When he returned, he was moved to WR/RB.  As a running back, Gray posted 331 yards and 5 TDs, and as a wide receiver he hauled in 12 passes for 121 yards.  While his numbers may not be eye-popping, the ability of the defense to gameplan for him is difficult since you never know where he is going to line up.

The Red Raiders possess two of the most prolific wide receivers in the country.  Eric Ward and Darrin Moore have combined for 156 receptions for 1922 yards and 24 TDs.  Each ranks in the top-26 nationally in receptions and in the top-11 in TD receptions.  Ward and Moore will be Seth Doege’s primary targets, but Texas Tech will also throw to Jace Amaro, Tyson Williams, and Jakeem Grant.  Each has made over 23 receptions on the year.

On the ground, Minnesota was paced by Donnell Kirkwood.  The sophomore wet off for 849 yards on 199 carries and 5 TDs.  Kirkwood posted 3 100-yard games with a high if 152 yards against Illinois.

GAME PREDICTION

Many, including those in Las Vegas seem to be heavily favoring Texas Tech.  And, while on paper the Red Raiders seem to have the more potent offense, the Gophers have one of the best passing defenses in the country.  That defense is going to have to come up large if the Gophers are going to have a chance of pulling off the upset.

Look for Minnesota to do what they can to control the time of possession and limit how many time Texas Tech gets their hands on the ball.  Minnesota will try and establish the run game with Kirkwood and Gray while mixing in play-action passes with freshman QB Philip Nelson.  If Minnesota can have success on the ground, then Minnesota will have a chance, but if they are forced to rely on the true freshman and his arm, Minnesota could be in for a long evening.

For the Red Raiders, look for them to continue the mantra: “If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it!”  Meaning, Texas Tech is going to sling the ball all over the joint.  While Texas Tech does possess a running back, Kenny Williams who went for 779 yards and 5 scores, he is merely a change of pace rather than the primary option.  Seth Doege and the passing game is the primary offensive weapon for Texas Tech.  If Minnesota cannot slow down the passing game, this game could get out of hand early!

Look for Minnesota to to be in the ball game at the half.  I think they will be able to stay within 2-scores by halftime.  In the second half, Texas Tech and the pace of their offense will wear down the Gophers and their defensive line.  The Minnesota rushing game will also begin to falter in the second half forcing them to go more to the pass which will play right into Texas Tech’s 39th ranked team defense.  Look for Texas Tech to pull away as the second half unfolds.  Minnesota will not be able to climb above .500 this season, but coach Jerry Kill has the Golden Gophers headed in the right direction.

SCORE

Minnesota – 13

Texas Tech – 44

Florida State (-14) 28 at Virginia Tech 22

Matt – Florida State (L)

Tim – Virginia Tech (W)

Craig – Florida State (L)

Corey – Virginia Tech (L)

Northwestern 31 at Michigan (-11) 38

Matt – Northwestern (W)

Tim – Northwestern (W)

Craig – Northwestern (W)

Corey – Northwestern (W)

Arizona State 17 at USC (-7.5) 38

Matt – Arizona State (L)

Tim – USC (W)

Craig – USC (W)

Corey – USC (W)

West Virginia 34 at Oklahoma State (-7.5) 55

Matt – Oklahoma State (W)

Tim – Oklahoma State (W)

Craig – Oklahoma State (W)

Corey – West Virginia (L)

Louisville (-3) 26 at Syracuse 45

Matt – Syracuse (W)

Tim – Louisville (L)

Craig – Louisville (L)

Corey – Louisville (L)

Onto this week’s slate of games, which were picked for the express purpose of padding my lead (and with Monday night’s spreads).

Cincinnati 31 at Louisville (-4) 34 (OT)

Matt – Louisville (L)

Tim – Louisville (L)

Craig – Louisville (L)

Corey – Cincinnati (W)

Mississippi State 7 at Alabama (-23.5) 38

Matt – Alabama (W)

Tim – Alabama (W)

Craig – Mississippi State (L)

Corey – Mississippi State (L)

Florida (-6.5)  9 vs. Georgia 17

Matt – Georgia (W)

Tim – Florida (L)

Craig – Florida (L)

Corey – Florida (L)

Notre Dame 30 at Oklahoma (-10.5) 13

Matt – Oklahoma (L)

Tim – Oklahoma (L)

Craig – Oklahoma (L)

Corey – Notre Dame (W)

Michigan 9 at Nebraska (-2.5) 23

Matt – Michigan (L)

Tim – Michigan (L)

Craig – Michigan (L)

Corey – Nebraska (W)

In the week #6 edition of Underrated/Overrated, let’s take a look at what teams I see that have been slipping in their non-conference tune-ups and what teams have positioned themselves well for a conference run.

Free Falling!

September 29, 2012; East Lansing, MI, USA; Michigan State Spartans safety Isaiah Lewis (9) dives after an Ohio State Buckeyes pass during the second half of a game at Spartan Stadium. Ohio State won 17-16. Mandatory Credit: Mike Carter-US PRESSWIRE

Michigan State (NR – AP / USA Today Polls)

Boy, how far the mighty have fallen!

In the preseason, Sparty was thought to be the class of the Big Ten.  After defeats at the hands of rival Notre Dame and now Ohio State, the Spartans are on the outside of the top-25 and looking in.  Head coach Mark Dantonio has to be really puzzled at the inability of his offense to generate any type of ball movement and scoring beyond his lone weapon, RB Le’Veon Bell.

The defense has remained solid, but it can’t hold every team down.  The Spartans are allowing an average of 12.8 points per game which ranks them 12th nationally.  They also have the 9th ranked defense in the country with their pass and rush defenses ranked no lower than 18th in any category.  It is the play of the offense that has prevented Michigan State from claiming the title of the Big Ten’s best team.

The good news for Michigan State is they still have important Legend’s Division games remaining.  They travel to Michigan and host Nebraska sandwiched around a game with Wisconsin.  To date, the best win for Sparty is the opening night win against Boise State.

Michigan State is going to have to find its offense if they are going to challenge Nebraska for the Legend’s Division crown.  The good news is the play perennial doormat Indiana and a suspect Iowa team in their next two games.  Two teams to get healthy playing against.

Sept 29, 2012; Landover,MD, USA; Virginia Tech Hokies tight end Ryan Malleck (88) congratulates teammate running back Michael Holmes (20) after scoring a touchdown against Cincinnati Bearcats during the fourth quarter at FedEx Field. Mandatory Credit: Paul Frederiksen-US PRESSWIRE

Virginia Tech (NR – AP / USA Today Polls)

The Hokies are another team that has failed to live up to its lofty preseason billing.  Coach Frank Beamer, normally one that stresses fundamentals, must be on edge with how his team has committed turnovers and penalties this year.  There is no doubt that Virginia Tech is one of the more talented teams in the ACC, but their national reputation has definitely taken a hit.

The Hokies lost this past weekend to a very scrappy and upstart Cincinnati Bearcats team after they allowed them to nearly go the length of the field in 1:43 to score the game-winning TD.  Quarterback Logan Thomas has thrown for over 100 yards, but he has nearly as many INTs (6) as he does TD passes (8).  That ratio, combined with a 52.7% completion percentage will not get it done against some of the better teams in the ACC.

Luckily for Va Tech they play in the ACC’s Coastal Division, widely regarded as the weaker of the two divisions.  They have already played and beaten Georgia Tech, so it looks as if the the showdown with Miami (FL) in Coral Gables Nov 1 will likely determine the winner of the Coastal division and the right to take on Florida State, the likely ACC-Atlantic Division winner.

Before getting to the ACC title game, Va Tech still has some intriguing games left on its schedule.  The Hokies have a stretch of 3 games in less than four weeks that will likely determine their course for the remainder of the season.  Starting on Oct. 20, they face Clemson, then Virginia Tech gets a bye week to prepare for the Hurricanes on Nov. 3.  Finally, they have a short turn around as they face-off with Florida State on Thurs. Nov 8.

While the loss to Pitt was terrible, the loss to Cincinnati may not be as bad as originally thought.  The Hokies can still right the ship and get into conference contention again by beating Clemson and Florida State, but most importantly, by defeating the Hurricanes.

September 22, 2012; Eugene, OR, USA; Arizona Wildcats running back Ka

Arizona Wildcats (NR – AP / USA Today Polls)

Oh my how much of a difference two weeks can make.  Two weeks ago, we were talking about the possibility that head coach Rich Rodriguez had invented a new version of the Desert Swarm teams of the 1990s.  Well…I guess not.  That’s not to say that Arizona has been terrible, they just have run up against two teams that are better then they are right now, in Oregon and Oregon State.  And, it doesn’t get any easier this week as the Wildcats travel to Stanford, licking their wounds after tasting defeat for the first time this year.

RichRod brought his read-option style of offense with him to the desert and the results have been remarkable.  The Wildcats rank 9th in passing offense and 39th in rush offense.  Overall, Arizona has a total offense that ranks 10th nationally.  So, putting up points in most games is not the problem, but the defense has been.

Arizona has a total defense that ranks 96th nationally and their pass defense is one of the worst in the FBS at a national rank of 102 while the rush defense also languishes with a rank of 72nd.

Playing in the PAC-12, a decent defense is needed to contend for a conference title.  As of the writing of this article, Arizona has to play 6 consecutive teams that are ranked in the top-25 of the polls.  They lose the first two games (Oregon, Oregon State), they play Stanford this week.  Then they get a bye week before they play host to Washington and USC before hitting the road to face UCLA.  They end the year by facing their annual rival, Arizona State who is vastly improved from last year.

Arizona is going to have to improve its defensive play if it wants to knock USC from the PAC-12 South Division pedestal.