How They Got Here

Texas A&M

Nov 18, 2012; College Station, TX, USA; Texas A

If anyone knew what to expect from the Aggies first journey through the SEC, they probably should have played the lottery or planned a trip to Vegas.  The 2011 squad went 7-6 in the Big 12, fired their coach, and had to replace a first round draft pick at QB.  All A&M did was finish 10-2, 6-2 in the SEC, knock off the top ranked Crimson Tide in Tuscaloosa, feature the first ever freshman to win the Heisman Trophy, and all with a new coach.  Things did not start out so rosy in the nations best league though, as Florida came into Kyle Field in what ended up as the season opener for the Aggies, and won 20-17, behind a 2nd half comeback.  If you paid attention at all to the 2011 season, that 2nd half collapse wasn’t exactly confidence inspiring.  Instead, Manziel and new coach Kevin Sumlin rallied the troops for 5 straight wins, before falling at home, to 6th ranked LSU.  A&M was at 5-2, and staring 3 consecutive road trips (Auburn, #15 Mississippi State, and #1 Alabama) in the face.  All they did was outscore those 3 teams 130-58, and go 3-0, capped with the thrilling 29-24 upset against the top ranked Crimson Tide.

Oklahoma

Dec 30, 2011; Tempe, AZ, USA; Oklahoma Sooners cheerleader before the game against Iowa Hawkeyes during the 2011 Insight Bowl at the Sun Devil Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jennifer Hilderbrand-USA TODAY Sports

Oklahoma entered the season as Oklahoma always enters the season, a top 5 team, loads of talent, and national title expectations.  The Sooners have been good for at least one shocking defeat in recent seasons, and it looked like that was the case again after they fell to then 15th ranked Kansas State in their 3rd game. The Wildcats, of course, would go on to finish 11-1 with a Big 12 title, and only an upset loss at Baylor away from playing for the national championship on Monday.  The Sooners would win their next 3 handily, setting up a prime time clash with Notre Dame in Norman.  The game was much closer than the 30-13 final, as the Irish scored twice late, but Sooner fans were once again left wondering what might have been.  Oklahoma wrapped up the year with 5 straight wins, including a thrilling 50-49 win at West Virginia, and a 51-48 OT win in the Bedlam game against rival Oklahoma State.

Key Matchups

Offense vs. Defense

Dec 01, 2012; Fort Worth, TX, USA; Oklahoma Sooners quarterback Landry Jones (12) throws during the game against the TCU Horned Frogs at Amon G. Carter Stadium. Oklahoma won 24-17. Mandatory Credit: Kevin Jairaj-USA TODAY Sports

If that doesn’t get your pulse racing, I don’t know what will!  But you have the 3rd and 10th offenses in both yardage and scoring, facing off against two pretty talented defenses.  It’s hard to compare stats with Oklahoma in the high flying Big 12, and the Aggies in the more defensive minded SEC, but make no mistake, both defenses are good, and they will be challenged.  Both teams put up over 500 yards total, over 300 yards through the air, and A&M goes for over 200 a game on the ground.  They key for both will of course be shutting down the prolific quarterbacks, and making both offenses find other ways to beat you.  Whoever does that, has the edge.

Johnny Football vs. The Heisman Hangover

Oct 20, 2012; College Station, TX, USA; Texas A

If you’ve followed college football for any amount of time, you are hopefully quite aware of the lack of success Heisman Trophy winners have been known to have after winning the award.  Whether it’s the month long hype machine, the buffets, or just the fact that everyone gets geared up to play the top player in the country*, the fact is the Heisman holder suffers.  Manziel has been in the spotlight as much as any winner in recent memory.  Heck, he made national news for sitting courtside for a Mavericks game last month.  But the freshman will have the stay level headed on the big stage as Oklahoma will certainly be gunning for him.  Don’t forget his offensive coordinator (Kliff Kingsbury) won’t be with him after taking the job at Texas Tech in December.

Prediction

Points.  Lots of points. Manziel has managed the expectations like a freshman that doesn’t know any better, and I don’t expect the Heisman hangover to really be much of a distraction for him. Oklahoma lost to the 2 best teams on their schedule, and the common theme was they shut down the Sooners high powered offense.  I think the Aggies do just enough to slow down Landry Jones, and pull out a close one.

Oklahoma 35

Texas A&M 38

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The Big 10 is in Bad Shape

Dec 3, 2011; Indianapolis, IN, USA; Wisconsin Badgers head coach Bret Bielema hoists the Big Ten Championship trophy after defeating the Michigan State Spartans at Lucas Oil Stadium. Wisconsin won 42-39. Mandatory credit: Michael Hickey-USA TODAY Sports

OK, this is nothing new, but as I look through the conference’s slate of 7 bowl games, I don’t see much good news for the league.  It’s certainly worth mentioning that the best team in the league, Ohio State, is stuck at home due to the sins of coaches and players past, and we all know about Penn State’s situation.  In a season that the Big 10 would have sent 9 teams bowling, and likely only 1 to the BCS, they have instead ended up with an 8-5 Rose Bowl representative, and just about every other school playing up a rung or two on the Big 10 bowl ladder.  Minnesota and Purdue appear to be utterly outclassed by Texas Tech and Oklahoma State respectively.  Given Nebraska’s performance, or lack thereof, against Wisconsin’s running game, I can only imagine Bo Pelini wakes up in the middle of the night, terrified of what Todd Gurley from Georgia is going to do to his defense.  I think Wisconsin can keep it close with Stanford, but I just don’t think they’re good enough to pull it out. Michigan will need to do something no one did this year, find a way to slow down Jadaveon Clowney.  I wouldn’t be surprised to see Sparty and Northwestern get wins, but I’m also not betting on it.  Bottom line, expect more of the same from the Big 10 in the next few days.

This week I want to tackle (no pun intended!) a more difficult topic and look at individual players across the country that have underperformed or overperformed based on what pre-season hype had indicated.  Certainly this is very subjective and many players will be left off the list in both categories, but I thought it might be fun to see who may or may not have met expectations.

Underachievers:

Nov 8, 2012; Blacksburg, VA, USA; Virginia Tech Hokies quarterback Logan Thomas (3) looks to pass in the second quarter at Lane Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Bob Donnan-US PRESSWIRE

Logan Thomas – QB Virginia Tech:

The Hokies were supposed to contend for the ACC title and possibly even a national title.  Those hopes went out the window early this season, and the once formidable Hokies are playing for their post-season lives.  Part of the reason they have struggled to win games this year is the lack-luster play of their junior signal caller Logan Thomas.

Thomas was expected to be one the ACC’s leading passers, and while he 7th in the league in passing yards per game, he has been too inconsistent, especially in the bigger games.  Even more shocking is his inability to lead his team back when they are trailing.

On the season Thomas has thrown for 2,407 yards but his completion percentage is a mere 53.6% (171/319).  He has thrown 14 TDs, but he has also thrown for 14 INTs.  A 1:1 TD-to-INT ratio is not going to get it done for a team that should have at least won the ACC’s Coastal Division.

While much of the season has passed, Thomas can still prove that 2012 is not a harbinger of things to come.  His team needs to win its final two games to make it to a bowl.  The games are winnable (Boston College and Virginia), but to do so, Thomas will have to be the leader that head coach Frank Beamer and the rest of the Hokies know that they have in their midst.

Oct 13, 2012; Seattle, WA, USA; Southern California Trojans tailback Silas Redd (25) carries the ball against the Washington Huskies at CenturyLink Field. USC defeated Washington 24-14. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee/Image of Sport-US PRESSWIRE

Silas Redd – RB USC:

Many that read this article will assume that I’m placing Redd on this list simply out of spite, seeing he spurned the Nittany Lions after their sanctions to go to the seemingly lavish lifestyle of the USC Trojans and a shot at the national title.  Well, I can tell you that is not the case!

If we compare stats from this year to his stats from last year at Penn State, you will find in most statistical categories his numbers have receded from where they were at one year ago.  In 2011 for Penn State, Redd rushed 244 times for 1,241 yards.  He averaged 5.1 yards per carry and scored 7 TDs.  This year for USC, Redd has carries the ball only 135 times for 732 yards.  His average per carry is slightly better at 5.4 ypc, and his number of rushing TDs are modestly up (9).  At neither Penn State nor USC has Redd been used as a pass-catching back.

Some of the disparity in the numbers is the type of offense that Penn State and USC run and the personnel that each teams possesses, but in the end, Redd has not turned out to be the dynamic running back that Lane Kiffin can give the ball to and ride for an entire game.  This year alone Redd has only had two games where he has carried the ball 20 times or more.  in 2011 at Penn State, he had 5 games where he toted the rock 20 times or more.  In fact he carried the ball 30 times against Illinois.

Redd has begun ceding carries to senior Curtis McNeal.  In the Trojans’ last game against Arizona State, Redd was unable to play due to injury.  McNeal rushed 31 times for 163 yards and 2 scores.  Redd is questionable this week against rival UCLA.  What isn’t questionable is Redd’s lack of game-changing bursts.  To be sure, Redd is a fine running back that nearly every team in the country would love to have on their roster.  However, he is not the difference-maker that USC thought they were getting when he agreed to transfer in August.

November 10, 2012; Ann Arbor, MI, USA; Michigan Wolverines running back Fitzgerald Toussaint (28) runs the ball for a touchdown against the Northwestern Wildcats in the third quarter at Michigan Stadium. Michigan won 38-31 in overtime. Mandatory Credit: Rick Osentoski-US PRESSWIRE

Fitzgerald Toussaint – RB Michigan

Fitzgerald Toussaint was supposed to be the next workhorse back for the Wolverines, taking some of the pressure to run ball from Denard Robinson.  One problem – someone forgot to tell Fitzy that he was supposed to do that.  Toussaint has been virtually invisible in most of Michigan’s games this year.  He has not amassed a 100-yard rushing game in any one of his contests this year, though he was close this past Saturday against Northwestern (95 yards), and he has a little over half of the rushing scores (5) that he had all of last year (9).

Toussaint started off 2012 on suspension from an off-season off the field arrest.  He therefore missed the Alabama game, but he has played in every game since.  His number of rushes should be about the same as they were last year, but his offensive output will be well below what he did last season.  Last year he was a 1,000 yard back, but this year he will likely be lucky to get to 700 yards rushing.  He has done a tad more in the passing game than last year, but the numbers are fairly comparable.

To me it doesn’t look like Toussaint is running downhill as much as he was last year.  Last season he could get to the second level by punishing defensive lineman and linebackers on his way to big gains.  This year, those linemen are able to corral him at or near the line of scrimmage.  His longest run of 2012 was a 50-yard gainer and that was last week.  The explosiveness just doesn’t seem to be there this year, and that has really hurt Michigan.

The Wolverines are still one of the better team in the Big Ten because of Denard Robinson and the much-improved play of their defense, but most teams are not scared of Michigan because they are so one-dimensional.  Michigan will likely step up in class come bowl season and play a team that will be better than they are.  How Michigan can involve Toussaint in the gameplan and his effectiveness will go a long way in determining how Michigan fares.

Also, picking Oregon over USC was the easiest pick I had all year.   I said earlier that I held no hard feelings on Redd, but Kiffin has only slowed his progress, much like he does with anyone that is unfortunate enough to play for him.  Check out VBR’s article earlier this week on that subject.

Texas A&M (+16) at Alabama

If Bama loses to a once Big 12 team,  the South will cease to exist.  Luckily for them, that will not happen.  A&M has officially been my Achilles heel all year , but there is no way they are beating Bama…. Right?

Alabama 33 Texas A&M 16

West Virgina (+8) at Oklahoma State

WVU beat Baylor in the ridiculous game and people actually mentioned them as a National Championship contender.   This team is so soft and their coach is so overrated that it is starting to bother me.  Here comes their 4^th straight loss.

Oklahoma State 47 WVU 43

Oregon State (+5.5) at Stanford

Another game that is decent, but not great.  Oregon State had that great start, but Stanford and their uber-conservative coach vs. ND will prevail.

Stanford 28 Oregon State 21

Kansas State at TCU (No Line)

If Klein plays, KSU should win, but that seems very uncertain right now.  TCU just beat that overrated WVU team, but they will catch KSU sans Klein and a pumped up crowd to take down #2.

TCU 24 Kansas State 16

Minnesota (-2.5) at Illinois

Ron Johnson’s alma mater vs. Tim Beckman in an all time Idiot Bowl.  These teams are so bad that I am pretty sure anyone who watches this will become depressed and swear never to watch football again.  Beckman will punt with :04 seconds left in the game to preserve the one point loss / moral victory.

Minnesota 10 Illinois 9

Upset Special

Louisville (-3) at Syracuse

BOB’s good buddy Doug Marrone will have the Carrier Dome so loud…. well, just kidding, but they will be pumped to knock off undefeated Louisville and really upset the powers that be of the Big East.

Syracuse 24 Louisville 22

Season Record 38-21(5-5 on Upset Specials)

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EVIL BILL O’BRIEN IS IN NO WAY AFFILIATED WITH PENN STATE UNIVERSITY OR HEAD COACH BILL O’BRIEN

We’ll start with the day games:

• I once voted Florida as the number one team…this year. I loved the schedule they had played and was driving the Jeff Driskel bandwagon. I’ve since done a swan dive off of that train and Florida is probably not as good as I had thought.
• Clemson is a sneaky 8-1, whose only loss came to Florida State. Not sure why they aren’t ranked higher. That’s a BCS-caliber team.
• Texas A&M might be the third best team in the SEC and Johnny Manziel is my favorite player who doesn’t wear blue. They’ll battle Alabama next week closer than people will expect.
• Louisville is probably pretty good. And not just because they beat Temple by 30 like everybody else does. Because they beat everybody else, too. The season ender against Rutgers should be a good one.
• West Virginia is now 5-3 and they still have to play Oklahoma, Oklahoma State and Iowa State. They have the 119th ranked scoring defense. Sad to waste a talent like Geno Smith with a defense that doesn’t exist.
• I’m not going to kill Notre Dame for barely beating Pitt even though they probably didn’t deserve to win. They’re still undefeated and that’s going to come with hiccups. However, the team that showed up yesterday can’t expect to beat USC. They better get it together.
• Kansas State is really good but Klein’s injury is bad news.
• Iowa is terrible.
• USC can beat Oregon. I know…they didn’t…but if they get a rematch, and Monte Kiffin can figure out a scheme to just force a couple punts or a turnover, Oregon didn’t really stop USC either. USC has yet to play their best football. Plus, all the pressure will be on Oregon.
• Zach Mettenberg earned respect last night. He played his best game against the best competition they’ll see.
• Kudos to Bama for being able to win that kind of game. I don’t want to pile on McCarron but he has beat this team…in the National Championship. Why was he crying last night?
• Oregon State is going to beat up somebody in a non-BCS bowl. They’re a heckuva team.
• Yesterday’s 5 team parlay winner: Akron +22, Miami (OH) +4, Georgia Tech -8, Texas A&M -3, Oregon State -6.

For all of the latest on the Penn State Nittany Lions, follow VBR Lead Editor Tim Tolley on Twitter.

Being from the tradition rich Big Ten, I can certainly tell you more about great Big Ten contests in a year than I can some non-conference game that was played in September.  So to, it goes this year.  For teams like Alabama, Kansas State, and Oregon, a path to the national title game will largely depend on what they do against some of their biggest conference rivals in the coming weeks.  To be sure, every game counts, but what do voters remember most, a 200 yard rushing performance against the sisters of the poor or, a 200 yard rushing performance against a national power and big time rival?

While most would agree Geno Smith would win the Heisman Trophy for his performance over the first half of the season, all would agree they don’t give out the award after 7 games; it takes a season to define a person’s true value!  What he is able to do over the last 6-7 weeks and how he faces adversity will determine if he is truly worthy of the most exalted individual award in college football.

Is Alabama really the best team in college football?  If we based the college season on the first 7 games, then the answer is an unequivocal YES, but that is why they play more than seven games.  Let’s see what Alabama can do over the remainder of their games.  They have yet to play teams like LSU, Mississippi State, Tennessee, Iron Bowl foe Auburn, and the eventual SEC East champion.  Perhaps Saban’s bunch will show sings of fatigue and crack, and maybe they won’t.

The second half of the college football season will be nothing short of exciting and entertaining, and I can’t wait to see what unfolds.  No doubt there will be some upsets, and teams that we thought were invincible will show signs of mortality.  Who is going to win the Heisman Trophy?  Will it be Geno Smith?  What about Braxton Miller or freshman Johnny Manziel?  How about a defensive player like Manti Te’O or Michael Mauti?  Or, could it be someone that comes from out of nowhere to steal the top prize?  Who is going to play for the national title?  Is Alabama just too tough for everyone?  What about the high-flying Oregon Ducks?  Maybe Notre Dame returns to its glory days.

No matter what the answers are, the second half of the college football season is where all of these answers will be determined.  So, sit back, relax, kick your feet up, and as Terrell Owens would say, “get your popcorn ready” because the best part of the college football year is just about set to kickoff!

For Full Disclosure:

“Prime-3″ Picks from last week – 2-1 ATS, 2-1 SU.  On the season, my record stands at 9-12 ATS, and 11-10 SU.

Extra Points Picks (ATS) from last week – 10-9-1.  On the season, my record stands at 55-42-2.

…As always, I will try and do better this week!

“Prime-3 Games”:

In this week’s installment of “prime-3″, our focus is once again directed toward the SEC and the Big 12.  We will delve into some key match-ups in the showdown in the Swamp as #7 South Carolina invades Gainesville to take on #2 Florida.  Another SEC games of note will be the #6 LSU Tigers, fresh off their triumph over previously unbeaten South Carolina, traveling to College Station to duke it out with #18 Texas A&M.  Finally, we shift our attention to the Big 12 where the conference’s lone unbeaten team #4 Kansas State goes to Morgantown to faceoff with #13 West Virginia, a team reeling from their first loss of the 2012 campaign.

And, without further ado, let’s get to the “Prime-3″ games!

Oklahoma (-3) 63 at Texas 21

Matt – Texas (L)

Tim – Texas (L)

Craig – Texas (L)

Corey – Texas (L)

Stanford 13 at Notre Dame (-9) 20

Matt – Notre Dame (L)

Tim – Stanford (W)

Craig – Notre Dame (L)

Corey – Stanford (W)

South Carolina 21 at LSU (-2.5) 23

Matt – South Carolina (W)

Tim – LSU (L)

Craig – South Carolina (W)

Corey – South Carolina (W)

Iowa 19 at Michigan State (-10) 16

Matt – Iowa (W)

Tim – Michigan State (L)

Craig – Iowa (W)

Corey – Michigan State (L)

Tennessee 31 at Mississippi State (-3) 41

Matt – Tennessee (L)

Tim – Tennessee (L)

Craig – Mississippi State (W)

Corey – Mississippi State (W)

As always, this week’s point spreads are as of Monday night.  ONTO THE GAMES!

In quick reflection, here were my week #1 picks, Michigan St (-8), Clemson (-3.5), and Michigan (+12.5).  My record last week: ATS: 1-2, SU: 3-0.  Clemson was able to come through and cover the spread, but Michigan State and Michigan were unable to cover their spreads.  I guess its time to go back to the drawing board and look at three new games for this week.

While week #1 had some marquee match-ups, week #2 offers some less headline-grabbing games, but intriguing games with teams in new conferences.  Both Texas A&M and Missouri have joined the SEC this year, and they will both have to be reckoned with by nationally ranked Florida and Georgia respectively.  The transition to the new conference has caused some scheduling glitches, so early games within the conference were forced to be played.  I will be taking a look at those games plus another interesting SEC – Big Ten match-up (Vanderbilt vs. Northwestern) in my college football viewpoint this week.