How They Got Here

Oregon

October 27, 2012; Eugene, OR, USA; Oregon Ducks cheerleader entertains at halftime against the Colorado Buffaloes at Autzen Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Scott Olmos-USA TODAY Sports

A lot of people were hoping for an Oregon-Alabama championship game so Oregon could showcase their explosive offense against a tough SEC defense. But after an overtime loss to Stanford that crushed any hopes of that, the Ducks instead have to settle for the Fiesta Bowl, their fourth straight BCS bowl game. Oregon boasts an offense that scores 50.8 points per game (second in the FBS) with a multitude of dangerous skill players. Aside from their lone loss to Stanford, Oregon beat every opponent by double digits. Their defense isn’t too shabby either, as the Oregon defense has the most interceptions in the FBS with 24.

Kansas State

Jan 06, 2012; Arlington, TX, USA; The Kansas State Wildcats cheerleaders perform during the game against the Arkansas Razorbacks in the 2012 Cotton Bowl at Cowboys Stadium. Arkansas won 29-16. Mandatory Credit: Kevin Jairaj-USA TODAY Sports

The Wildcats surprised many and won the Big 12 this season. Their signature win was against Oklahoma in Norman, which would eventually be the tiebreaker that gave them the conference title. They are lead on offense by Heisman finalist Collin Klein and by linebacker Arthur Brown on defense. Klein accounted for 37 total touchdowns and finished third in the Heisman voting while Brown registered a team high 91 tackles. Like Oregon, Kansas State was one win away from playing for the national championship. That loss was an ugly 28-point loss at the hands of Baylor.

Key Matchups

Oregon defense vs. Collin Klein

Dec 1, 2012; Manhattan, KS, USA; Kansas State Wildcats quarterback Collin Klein (7) runs during a 42-24 win over the Texas Longhorns at Bill Snyder Family Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Scott Sewell-USA TODAY Sports

Containing Klein, especially in the run game, should be a top priority for Oregon’s defense. Klein has rushed for 890 yards and 22 touchdowns on the year. The Ducks have some very good players on defense such as Dion Jordan, Michael Clay, Kiko Alonso and Taylor Hart. Clay has a team high 92 tackles and Hart leads the team in sacks with eight. Even though Klein isn’t as effective passing the ball as he is running it, Oregon still needs to account for that too. Klein has thrown for 15 touchdowns and has several quality receivers such as Chris Harper, Tyler Lockett and Tramaine Thompson.

Oregon run offense vs. Kansas State run defense

Nov 24, 2012; Corvallis, OR, USA; Oregon Ducks running back Kenjon Barner (24) runs the ball in the first quarter against the Oregon State Beavers at Reser Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Scott Olmos-USA TODAY Sports

Oregon has a variety of skill players on offense with the best player probably being running back Kenjon Barner. Barner is an All-American who rushed for 1,624 yards and 21 touchdowns. And while Barner might be the Ducks’ best offensive player, the most dangerous player is probably De’Anthony Thomas. Thomas technically is a running back but he plays some wide receiver too. He has rushed for 686 yards and 11 touchdowns and has caught 41 passes (a team high) for 385 yards and four touchdowns. Plus you can’t leave out Oregon’s dual-threat quarterback Marcus Mariota, who has 690 yards on the ground as well. The bottom line is this: Kansas State’s defense needs to come ready to play or else Oregon’s offense will run them out of the stadium (like they’ve done to most teams). The fast pace that Oregon’s offense plays at usually overwhelms defenses and leads to a blowout. Guys like Arthur Brown, Adam Davis, Jarell Childs and Meshak Williams will need to continue to be playmakers for the Wildcats’ defensive front if they want to have a chance in this game.

Kansas State pass defense vs. Oregon pass offense

November 10, 2012; Berkeley, CA, USA; Oregon Ducks quarterback Marcus Mariota (8) dives for the end zone pylon during the first quarter against the California Golden Bears at Memorial Stadium. Mariota was ruled out of bounds short of the goal line. Mandatory Credit: Kelley L Cox-USA TODAY Sports

As effective as Mariota is running the ball, he’s even better throwing it. The redshirt freshman has thrown for 30 touchdowns and only six interceptions (in 312 attempts). Mariota has a plethora of options to throw to. Oregon has six players with at least 20 receptions and six players with at least three touchdown receptions. Among those pass catchers, wide receiver Josh Huff, tight end Colt Lyerla and the afore-mentioned De’Anthony Thomas are Mariota’s favorites. Kansas State is tied for seventh in the FBS with 18 interceptions. Defensive backs Allen Chapman, Nigel Malone and Ty Zimmerman each have five interceptions for the Wildcats. Their play will be key and if Kansas State’s secondary can stifle Mariota and the Oregon passing game, then that will make their lives a whole lot easier.

Prediction

Aside from Stanford, every team that Oregon has played has struggled mightily to stop their high-powered offense. Kansas State’s defense is very good but only the elite defenses (like Stanford’s) can hang with the Ducks’ offense. Collin Klein and his offense will most likely need to put up a lot of points and Kansas State is unlikely to hang with Oregon in a shootout. Forcing turnovers and chewing clock to keep the Oregon offense on the sideline should be the blueprint for Kansas State to beat Oregon. Saying that is easy, but for Kansas State to execute that game plan is a daunting task.

Score: Oregon 38 Kansas State 23

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Florida State (-14) 28 at Virginia Tech 22

Matt – Florida State (L)

Tim – Virginia Tech (W)

Craig – Florida State (L)

Corey – Virginia Tech (L)

Northwestern 31 at Michigan (-11) 38

Matt – Northwestern (W)

Tim – Northwestern (W)

Craig – Northwestern (W)

Corey – Northwestern (W)

Arizona State 17 at USC (-7.5) 38

Matt – Arizona State (L)

Tim – USC (W)

Craig – USC (W)

Corey – USC (W)

West Virginia 34 at Oklahoma State (-7.5) 55

Matt – Oklahoma State (W)

Tim – Oklahoma State (W)

Craig – Oklahoma State (W)

Corey – West Virginia (L)

Louisville (-3) 26 at Syracuse 45

Matt – Syracuse (W)

Tim – Louisville (L)

Craig – Louisville (L)

Corey – Louisville (L)

Onto this week’s slate of games, which were picked for the express purpose of padding my lead (and with Monday night’s spreads).

I think the majority of the nation would agree that if Alabama wins their remaining games (Texas A&M, West Carolina, Auburn, SEC title game), they are as much of a lock to go to Miami as any of the unbeaten teams.  Alabama survived a scare in Death Valley this past weekend, only to see the finish line in front of them.  They need to be careful though because Texas A&M and their super freshman Johnny Manziel could present a bit of a problem for a defense that was definitely worn down by games end last week.  Assuming Alabama gets past the Aggies, I would expect smooth sailing until the reach the SEC title game, most likely against Georgia.  In the end, it would seem the number-1 team in the country controls their own destiny to get to the title game.

Oregon would now seem like the most likely partner for Alabama in the title game.  Chip Kelly’s squad is an offensive juggernaut to say the least.  I’m not even sure video games set on the easiest level could match the offensive output that the Ducks are capable of getting.  Oregon literally outscored USC Saturday night in the Coliseum.  USC really didn’t play that bad of a game yet they lost by double digits and gave up 62 points.  In fact, Oregon has scored at least 42 points in every game they have played thus far (Oregon leads the nations in average points scored per game with 54.3).  The remaining games for the Ducks include @ Cal, Stanford, @ Oregon State, Pac-12 Title game.  Of the undefeated top-5 teams, Oregon has the toughest remaining schedule, but winning out will also improve their strength of schedule enough that they should be able to leapfrog Kansas State in the BCS rankings.  At this point, some wagering sites have listed Alabama as a 4-point favorite over Oregon right now.  Interesting!

Kansas State is playing some of its best football right now.  Wildcats quarterback Collin Klein, nicknamed Optimus Klein, has not only given his team a shot at the national title, but also he has given himself a chance at the Heisman Trophy.  Klein left Saturday night’s game against Oklahoma State with what is believed to be concussion-like symptoms.  Early reports out of Manhattan say he is doing well and is likely to play this weekend.  Kansas State plays a tough schedule to end the year @ TCU, @ Baylor, Texas).  The bonus / problem for Kansas State is that there is no Big 12 title game.  Many teams, especially those in conferences like the Big Ten prior to last year, used to loathe the fact that their season was over in November while other teams played either into December or had conference championship games with which to impress voters.  Kansas State will essentially be done at the end of November.  So, while the Wildcats only have to win 3 more games to finish unbeaten, they also won’t have a chance to impress voters after that either.  It would seem that unless either Oregon or Alabama loses or has a poor showing, Kansas State will be left out of the national title picture.

Finally, Notre Dame would present the longest odds of making the title game out the four top-rated undefeated teams.  The Irish have been a breath of fresh air this season as their magical run to an unbeaten season continues.  The Irish were fortunate to remain without a loss after a 14-point come-from-behind victory over Pittsburgh this past weekend.  Notre Dame took advantage of the Panthers miscues and made the plays they had to in order to come out on top.  Unfortunately for Notre Dame and their fans, the Irish’s strength of schedule, compared to the other top teams is likely to go down.  Notre Dame’s remaining schedule looks like this: @ Boston College, Wake Forest, @ USC.  Most certainly voters will be tuning in to see how the Irish are able to do out in SoCal, but they are in a no-win spot by playing Boston College and Wake Forest.  If they win by large margins, well, they were supposed to do that.  If they lose, that’s even worse.  Close games are also no good for a team that really needs to impress voters.  While Notre Dame has had a remarkable season, one that many outside the program did not think was possible this year, I just don’t see how Notre Dame makes the title game without both Oregon and Kansas State losing a game along the way.

Some other teams that have title game aspirations would be the Georgia Bulldogs and Ohio State Buckeyes.  For Georgia its clear that their only shot at getting to the title game is to win the SEC title over an undefeated Alabama team as well as having two of the three other unbeatens (Kansas State, Oregon, Notre Dame) lose a game.  While that is not impossible, it does seem like a stretch.

Ohio State presents an interesting case because they are under NCAA sanctions.  As such, they are ineligible to participate in a bowl game as well as assume a ranking in the USA Today Coaches Poll and BCS rankings.  How can Ohio State win the national title then?  Well, they are still ranked 5th in the latest AP poll and if Alabama, Oregon, Kansas State, and Notre Dame all lose prior to the bowl games, it could be possible an undefeated Ohio State team gets the nod as national champion.  It seems unlikely a split national champion would be crowned, but that is why college football is unique and exciting.

So, with the college football’s regular season winding down, the intrigue and the excitement is just heating up.  Time and time again I hear about November games are what separate the title contenders from the pretenders.  It seems like this year is just another example where that adage is proven correct.  I can’t wait to see what’s going to happen as we come down the stretch.

OK, before we take a look at the games we have on tap for week #11, let’s quickly take a look back at how my “prime-3″ games and extra points picks for week#9 fared (Sorry I missed last week!).

For Full Disclosure:

“Prime-3″ Picks from week #9 – 1-2 ATS, 0-3 SU.  On the season, my record stands at 13-14 ATS, and 14-13 SU.

Extra Points Picks (ATS) from last week – 12-10-0.  On the season, my record stands at 82-61-2.

…As always, I will try and do better this week!

“Prime-3 Games”:

In this week’s installment of “prime-3″, we will turn our attention to the number-1 team in the country and see how they fare after their emotional win last week.  We will then look at a game pitting two Pac-12 North teams, and finally we delve into a Big Ten match-up that will have Legend’s Division title implications.

We start with a look at some key match-ups involving the #15 Texas A&M Aggies and #1 Alabama Crimson Tide.  We then shift our focus out west as Pac-12 teams #11 Oregon State and #14 Stanford duke it out for 2nd place in the Pac-12′s Northern Division. Finally, we look at a Big Ten tilt that has Legend’s Division ramifications.  The Penn State Nittany Lions travel to Lincoln to do battle with the #16 Nebraska Cornhuskers.

And, without further ado, let’s get to the “Prime-3″ games!

Cincinnati 31 at Louisville (-4) 34 (OT)

Matt – Louisville (L)

Tim – Louisville (L)

Craig – Louisville (L)

Corey – Cincinnati (W)

Mississippi State 7 at Alabama (-23.5) 38

Matt – Alabama (W)

Tim – Alabama (W)

Craig – Mississippi State (L)

Corey – Mississippi State (L)

Florida (-6.5)  9 vs. Georgia 17

Matt – Georgia (W)

Tim – Florida (L)

Craig – Florida (L)

Corey – Florida (L)

Notre Dame 30 at Oklahoma (-10.5) 13

Matt – Oklahoma (L)

Tim – Oklahoma (L)

Craig – Oklahoma (L)

Corey – Notre Dame (W)

Michigan 9 at Nebraska (-2.5) 23

Matt – Michigan (L)

Tim – Michigan (L)

Craig – Michigan (L)

Corey – Nebraska (W)

A new week and a generally uneventful week as usual.   Away we go to a 6-0.

Alabama (-7) at LSU

These teams are so great blah blah blah. These teams are good, but they play the worst football games.   I am sure if I had a rooting interest, I would think otherwise, but I don’t.  LSU will give Bama it’s 1^st real test, but that being said, this will be a smackdown. Not sure if LSU will resort to Bolden to throw for a TD since he does have some experience doing so vs. Bama. I can see Alabama struggling for a ½, but they will pull away in the end.

Alabama 24 LSU 7

Oklahoma State (+7) at Kansas State

Bill Snyder is a magician with his ability to coach.  If Mike Gundy was a man at 40, what does that make Snyder at 73? KSU big.

Kansas State 47 Oklahoma State 21

Texas A&M (-2.5) vs. Mississippi State

Texas A&M has ruined a lot of Evil Bill’s picks so far this year so now it is time for them to pay.  Mullen and his Penn State loving dad will prevail vs. this overrated A&M team.

MSU 31 Texas A&M 15

Texas (+2.5) vs. Texas Tech

How Texas is ranked is beyond me.  That is soon to change and the heat on Mack Brown will intensify with a bad defensive effort combed with a poor offensive showing.

Texas Tech 33 Texas 12

Oregon (-6) at USC

Kiffin in a game that he shouldn’t win, will not let me down.  I just hope he’s embarrassed and then eventually gets fired and disappears from my TV forever.

Oregon 53 USC 32

Upset Special

Clemson (-14) at Duke

I really have no feel this week so I am going big.

Duke 27 Clemson 26

Season Record 35-18 (5-4 on Upset Specials)

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Oklahoma (-3) 63 at Texas 21

Matt – Texas (L)

Tim – Texas (L)

Craig – Texas (L)

Corey – Texas (L)

Stanford 13 at Notre Dame (-9) 20

Matt – Notre Dame (L)

Tim – Stanford (W)

Craig – Notre Dame (L)

Corey – Stanford (W)

South Carolina 21 at LSU (-2.5) 23

Matt – South Carolina (W)

Tim – LSU (L)

Craig – South Carolina (W)

Corey – South Carolina (W)

Iowa 19 at Michigan State (-10) 16

Matt – Iowa (W)

Tim – Michigan State (L)

Craig – Iowa (W)

Corey – Michigan State (L)

Tennessee 31 at Mississippi State (-3) 41

Matt – Tennessee (L)

Tim – Tennessee (L)

Craig – Mississippi State (W)

Corey – Mississippi State (W)

As always, this week’s point spreads are as of Monday night.  ONTO THE GAMES!

Also, a few ND fans didn’t take to kindly to my tweet about them getting a call. This was after I blasted Shaw for his insanely pathetic play calling.  Whatever, ND fans are back in full force and are as insufferable as always.

Michigan State (+10) at Michigan

Michigan State has had UM’s number after Mike Hart went “little brother” on MSU.  Michigan State lost at home to an Iowa team that PSU may beat by 60.  Denard Robinson gets his win vs. MSU and I further clear the path for UM to the B1G Championship Disaster Game.

Michigan 38 Michigan State 16

Kansas State (-2.5) at West Virginia

West Virginia found out last week that they’re offense can’t carry them every week.  They also learned that their highly touted offensive genius doesn’t have the 1^st clue how to coach defense.  14 points vs. Texas Tech with that talent?  Please.  That being said, Kansas State has to lose sometime.

West Virginia 34 Kansas State 29

South Carolina (+3) at Florida

The ol’ Ball Coach would love nothing more than to derail UF’s season.  I think he has the talent to do it, but Florida at home and their 2^nd half success puts that dream on ice.  I would really like to see Spurrier pull this off, but I have my doubts and I hate their initials are USC so that costs them here.

Florida 26 South Carolina 17

Oregon (-9.5) at Arizona State

Colin Cowherd mentioned Todd Graham as one of the top 3 coaches of the year and it also had BOB on there.  That nonsense must end immediately and in embarrassing fashion.  Being mentioned with that clown is almost as bad as people comparing Evil Bill to Charlie Weis when he left the Patriots.  Coach of the Year candidates don’t get beat like this.

Oregon 55 Arizona State 7

LSU (-3.5) at Texas A&M

I get that the SEC is pretty good, but they don’t seem to get that good defenses vs. mediocre offenses doesn’t make great for good football.  Texas A&M burnt me once vs. Florida and I am back at the well with an upset special.  Fool me once, shame on you, fool me twice and Texas A&M sucks.

Texas A&M 23 LSU 22

Upset Special

Rutgers (-5) at Temple

Logically, I cannot think of how this will happen, but I know that it must and will.  Temple will watch the game film vs. PSU and attempt to copy it play by play.  Rutgers will realize how high they climbed in the polls and panic.

Temple 26 Rutgers 21

Season Record 30-11 (4-3 on Upset Specials)
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Evil Bill O’Brien is in no way affiliated with Penn State University or head coach Bill O’Brien. 

Conference play has finally begun on a national scale and we are now getting a little glimpse into who and what these teams really are. For me personally, I thought the biggest challenge was figuring out where to slot USC and Stanford. Both have a road loss, but USCs loss is TO Stanford. On my poll, USC actually dropped from last week during their bye week, entirely due to Stanford’s loss at Washington. I felt that this early in the season, it was only fair to keep USC behind Stanford, until they do something to prove that they’ve moved on. They’ll get that shot this Thursday at Utah.

Until then…

MATT

1. Alabama

2. Florida State

3. Oregon

4.  LSU

5.  South Carolina

6.  Georgia

7.  West Virginia

8.  Kansas State

9.   Notre Dame

10. Texas

11. Florida

12. Ohio State

13. Oregon State

14. Clemson

15. TCU

16. USC

17. Oklahoma

18. Stanford

19. Louisville

20. Mississippi State

21. Northwestern

22. Cincinnati

23. Nebraska

24. Rutgers

25. Ohio

TIM

1. Alabama
2. Oregon
3. Florida State
4. LSU
5. Florida
6. Georgia
7. West Virginia
8. Notre Dame
9. Kansas State
10. South Caroliina
11. Texas
12. TCU
13. Ohio State
14. Stanford
15. USC
16. Oregon State
17. Clemson
18. Oklahoma
19. Rutgers
20. Louisville
21. Northwestern
22. Nebraska
23. Purdue
24. Cincinnati
25. Ohio

Almost all non-conference games have been completed and the conference slate is now upon us.  While many people, including myself, can get down on the strength of conference play, it is those games that will ultimately determine who will be playing for the national title in January.  The non-conference slate is just a way for many teams to position themselves for a run to either a conference championship or possible a national championship.

Before conference play truly gets started, let’s take a look at some teams that have positioned themselves for a run at either a conference title or a national title, as well as some teams that have fallen from their lofty heights.

So who made the move up the polls this week and who is sliding down…let’s find out in my week #5 rankings!

Free Falling!

Sep 22, 2012; Norman, OK, USA; Oklahoma Sooner quarterback Landry Jones (12) throws in the pocket against the Kansas State Wildcats at Oklahoma Memorial Stadium. The Wildcats beat the Sooners 24-19. Mandatory Credit: Matthew Emmons-US PRESSWIRE

Oklahoma Sooners (#16 – AP / #15 – USA Today Polls).

Many of us wondered what type of team the Oklahoma Sooners were.  After getting soundly defeated at home to Kansas State this past weekend, I think we got some semblance of an answer.  Perhaps they were a bit overrated.  Oklahoma was 2-0 entering the game, but they had struggled in beating their week #1 opponent, UTEP.

Kansas State entered the contest 3-0 and had scored at least 35 points in each of their three games, including a 52-13 drubbing of Miami (FL).  In Saturday’s contest, the Wildcats exacted some revenge for  last year’s crushing defeat to Oklahoma.  Kansas State was able to control the time of possession and never let Landry Jones and his talented playmakers to get on the field.  So, where does Oklahoma go from here?

Luckily for the Sooners, they play in the Big 12, one of the toughest and deepest conferences in the country.  It is extremely conceivable that Kansas State will lose a game and allow the Sooners to get back in the conference title chase.  The Sooners still have to play teams like Texas, Oklahoma State, West Virginia, TCU, and a non-conference game with Notre Dame.  If the Sooners were able to run the gauntlet, they would easily be back in the national title chase.  The Sooners, however, need to get themselves straightened out first.  Their defense needs to be able to generate turnovers and get off the field on 3rd down so that the offense can get on the field.  If they can do that, expect to see the Sooners back in the top-10, pushing for a BCS Bowl- perhaps a national title shot, too.

Sept 22, 2012; Tallahassee, Florida, USA; Clemson Tigers wide receiver Sammy Watkins (2) is tackled by Florida State Seminoles defensive back P.J. Williams (26) during the first half of the game at Doak Campbell Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Melina Vastola-US PRESSWIRE

Clemson Tigers (#17 – AP / #16 – USA Today Polls).

The Clemson Tigers took a step backward this past weekend as they seemed to run out of gas against Florida State.  For the first three quarters, the Tigers looked like they were going to put it to the Seminoles, but Florida State and EJ Manuel stepped it up.  Clemson led until 2:37 remaining in the third quarter.  Florida State used a 35-3 run in a 20-minute span to take control of the game.  EJ Manuel passed for 380 yards and 2 TDs while also rushing for 102 yards.

To their credit, Clemson was also on its offensive game.  QB Tajh Boyd passed for 237 yards and 3 scores while also rushing for 44 yards.  As expected, DeAndre Hopkins was heavily involved in the passing game recording 5 catches for 88 yards and a score.  Clemson knew that it was going to struggle to run against the vaunted Florida State rush defense, so instead of pounding Ellington into the line and getting very little, they chose to throw short passes to him in space and let him use his legs to generate yardage.  Ellington ran 14 times for 55 yards and a score, but he caught 4 passes for 87 yards and a score.

Unfortunately for the Tigers, their defense just couldn’t keep the Seminoles down for an entire 60 minutes.  The winner of this game has gone on to win the ACC Atlantic division the past 3 years, and their doesn’t seem to be any reason why this year would be any different.

Clemson needs to avoid a letdown as they travel to Chestnut Hill and take on Boston College this weekend.  The Tigers still posses so many athletic playmakers, they can make waves in the league and still get to a good bowl game.  Clemson still has 3 big games left on their slate.  They play Georgia Tech on Oct. 6, Virginia Tech Oct. 20 (this comes after Clemson’s bye week), and South Carolina Nov. 24.  Getting to a BCS Bowl game will be extremely difficult for the Tigers because they just don’t have the marquee teams left on their schedule unless South Carolina is unbeaten at the end of the year.

Sep 22, 2012; South Bend, IN, USA; Michigan Wolverines wide receiver Roy Roundtree (21) runs a pass route against the Notre Dame Fighting Irish at Notre Dame Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Brian Spurlock-US PRESSWIRE

Michigan Wolverines (NR – AP / USA Today Polls).

I would love to say that the Wolverines and the Fighting Irish engaged in a classic game that will go down in the annals of history.  Perhaps to Irish fans the game was a Rembrandt, but in reality it was an ugly turnover fest.  There were a total of 8 combined turnovers with Michigan committing 6 of them.  Denard Robinson threw 4 picks and was never able to find any rhythm as Notre Dame beat the Wolverines 13-6.

Michigan has played 4 games and as they enter their bye week, and are 2-2.  They won the two games that most people figured they would have won (Massachusetts and Air Force), but they lost their two big games (Alabama and Notre Dame).  Once Michigan returns to action in 2 weeks against a very respectable Purdue team, the question becomes what level will Michigan be able to rise to?  Last year they were a BCS Bowl team, this year, unless Denard Robinson is going to carry this team on his back, I don’t see how they are going to a major bowl game.

Michigan still has to play teams like Nebraska, Northwestern, Michigan State and Ohio State.  If the Wolverines want to entertain any notion of going to a big time bowl game, they are going to have to win out.  As it stands right now, the air has been let out of the Wolverines balloon.  They need to use the bye week to help regroup and come out ready for the Big Ten season.

With four weeks in the books, I wanted to take a long, hard look at the college landscape because we know a little more about these teams than we did in the preseason. No more living off of expectations (Michigan) or that one win that one time against Nebraska (UCLA). It’s show time!

1. Alabama – Easy.
2. Oregon – Arizona probably isn’t as good as people once thought, but it’s evident that this Oregon team has a strong defense to go with their regular, explosive offense.
3. Florida State – FSU has been hyped for a few years, this could finally be the one. Big win over Clemson.
4. LSU - I’m not sure what the win over Washington means and they need to beat teams like Auburn more convincingly. This is not the 2011 Tigers. I feel out on a limb here.
5. Florida –  Wins at Texas A&M and Tennessee followed by a shutout against some basketball school have me impressed. So does Jeff Driskel
6. Georgia – Four SEC teams in the top 6. Ugh.
7. Notre Dame – Wins over Michigan State, Michigan and Purdue make Notre Dame the best team that should be in the Big Ten.
8. West Virginia – I’m eager to see them play a quality opponent, but Geno Smith looks like a legitimate Heisman contender.
9. Kansas State – It doesn’t always look pretty, but that win in Norman was big.
10. South Carolina –  Marcus Lattimore is back and Connor Shaw is figuring it out. I really like USCe.
11. Stanford – They have a real chance to climb this poll in the near future. Early win over USC was enormous.
12. USC –  I still think the Trojans are one of the two most talented teams in the country, but they’re not playing like it.
13. Texas – Defense looks borderline great…but against nobody.
14. TCU –  Their ranking won’t really matter until November when the schedule gets brutal.
15. Oklahoma – Big Game Bob strikes again, to the dismay of Sooner fans.
16. Oregon State – Only two games played, but wins over Wisconsin and at UCLA are quality.
17. Rutgers – Three road wins in this young season.
18. Ohio State – Really eager to see Buckeyes this week. Braxton has been amazing. Nothing else has been.
19. Clemson – Clemson is really good and had a halftime lead over Florida State. They’ll bounce back.
20. Louisville – Ummm peer pressure? Can’t remember what I was thinking here.
21. Baylor – This is going to sound like a joke, but I like that win at ULM. Now if they just don’t get blown out by WVU this weekend…
22. Tennessee – They had a little trouble against Akron and head to Georgia this week. Don’t get used to them being here.
23. Northwestern – They beat 3 AQ teams in the first three weeks and now get Indiana…I smell 5-0!
24. Ohio – The Bobcats of Athens are undefeated with wins at Marshall and at Penn State.
25. Purdue – I like them more than this and they deserve better. Would like to swap Purdue and LVille if I could do it again.

There you have it! Full disclosure and a little glimpse into the madness. Don’t expect this every week. I hate confrontation.

For all of the latest on the Penn State Nittany Lions, follow VBR Lead Editor Tim Tolley on Twitter.

OK, perhaps a bit too much biology for a college football blog but college football teams are pretty much the same way – they may look ugly in the beginning, but given a chance to change and evolve, some become beautiful and majestic.  Most of us had teams like Notre Dame, UCLA, Florida, Arizona, etc… outside of the top-25 with not much chance of breaking into it.  Of course the season is still young, but these teams may have exceeded our expectations, but not their own.

As always, before we look ahead to this week’s match-ups, we will take a quick look back at how my picks made out.  Last week in my “prime-3″ I was 1-2 ATS and 0-3 SU.  On the year I am 3-6 while SU I am 4-5.  Last week I failed to let you know how my “Extra Points” picks made out.  For the games of week #2 I was 5-3 ATS and last week, week #3, I was 8-3 ATS.  For the season, my “Extra Points” picks have kept me afloat, I am 13-6.  As always, I will go to work and try and do better!

In this week’s installment of the “prime-3″ games, I have chosen 3 games that will alter the landscape of college football based on who wins or loses the game.  There were many choices from which to pick, but in the end I chose “#15 Kansas State at #6 Oklahoma, #10 Clemson at #4 Florida State, and #22 Arizona at #3 Oregon.