Feb 9, 2013; Lincoln, NE, USA; Penn State Nittany Lions guard D.J. Newbill (2) puts his head into the padding during the game against the Nebraska Cornhuskers in the second half at the Bob Devaney Sports Center. Nebraska won 67-53. Mandatory Credit: Bruce Thorson-USA TODAY Sports

Ross Travis forced a turnover, leading to a 3 on 2 break, with Jermaine Marshall finding D.J. Newbill for an open 3.  Newbill had hit 3 of 4 three point attempts, but this one went long. Brandon Taylor was able to grab the rebound, but could not avoid a held ball that gave Iowa possession.  The Lions would foul on the ensuing play, sending Aaron White to the line.  He missed the front end of the 1 and 1, giving PSU life.  Marshall drove to the basket, looking for a foul call that would not come.  PSU would draw within 2 again, with just 4 seconds left, and after Roy Devyn Marble made 1 of 2 free throws, Marshall would drive the floor, before Iowa was able to foul him.  Marshall made the first, and with 1.5 seconds left, was left having to miss the second to give the Lions any hope.  Ironically, PSU’s best free throw shooter who had missed 4 of his previous attempts on the night, ended up draining the shot, effectively ending all hope for the W.

Iowa got out to a 17-7 lead, but PSU would respond with a 16-0 run, fueled in large part by Newbill, who was the best player on the floor for much of the evening.  Following a Fran McCaffery timeout, the Hawkeyes responded with an 11-0 run of their own, giving then a lead they would ultimately take to the half.  By most measures, the first 20 minutes were Penn State’s strongest of the season.  They were 45% from the field, 40% from three, 7 assists, and just 2 turnovers.  It was only a 24-10 advantage on the boards that had the Hawkeyes out in front.  Newbill was dominant, with 16 points on 7 of 9 shooting.

PSU would take the lead out of the intermission with 5 straight points, and the game remained close, until another 11-0 Iowa run opened up a 61-49 lead for the visitors, with just 10 minutes left in the game.  Instead of folding, Chambers crew responded with a 10-1 run, igniting the crowd for what would be an exciting finish.  PSU would not get closer than 2 points though, never getting a stop they needed on the defensive end, or the basket they needed at the other, leading up the exciting, if not disappointing finish.

Newbill finished with 26 points, and 8 rebounds, giving PSU a glimpse of what they can expect from him next season when he will return to his more natural shooting guard when Tim Frazier reassumes the point.  Marshall added 14 points, and 10 assists, but 76% FT shooter will be certainly replay his 6 of 10 performance from the line.  Sasa Borovnjak finished with 14 as well.  Roy Devyn Marble lead the visitors with 22 points.

PSU begins their gauntlet of a final 6 games Sunday afternoon at Crisler Center against the 4th ranked Michigan Wolverines, who are certainly smarting after being run out of East Lansing by MSU on Tuesday.  That game tips at noon, and can be seen on BTN.

THE LAST TIME OUT
The first time Penn State played Nebraska they choked at the end, missing key free throws down the stretch. Last time out, again against Nebraska, Penn State choked throughout the game shooting from the field instead. The turnover bug, which has haunted the team since its near flawless game against Ohio State (four turnovers total), crippled the Lions already struggling offense (13 vs Nebraska).

Early leads followed by double digit scoring droughts have plagued Penn State in B1G play. Worst yet injuries (beyond Tim Frazier), and more, are starting to catch up to the team and its lack of depth. Jermaine Marshall is clearly not himself and Brandon Taylor is either hurt, tired, struggling with his confidence, or all three. That being said, the team has had a few days off and hopefully will show up for what they realize is a winnable game.

ABOUT THE IOWA HAWKEYES
Iowa has played well this season even while losing four of their last six games; two of which were in overtime, the last being a double overtime loss at Wisconson. They are top 15 in the country in rebounds and top 20 in assists and team-leading scorer and rebounder Aaron White torched the Lions last time they played for 27 points. White’s season average is only 13.5, junior Roy Devyn Marble is second with 13.2 points per game.

THE MATCH UP
Iowa struggles at time shooting from the field, but their physical play makes up for their lack of touch; against Penn State, Iowa drew 26 personal fouls, forced 18 turnovers, and shot 39 free throws. That type of aforementioned physical play made up for the fact they were outshot by the Lions from three point range, the free throw line, and were held below their season average from field goal range.

If the Lions are going to win at all in 2013, this is their best chance to do so. Penn State needs Jermaine Marshall and D.J. Newbill to show up and shoot consistently throughout the game. A third scorer (Brandon Taylor, Ross Travis, Sasa?) needs to get at least 15 points to support them. They need to limit the turnovers and personal fouls, and crash the boards.. Finally, if they are to be victorious, they need a loud and supportive Nittany Nation to pack the BJC, FTK, FTW.

Jan 31, 2013; Iowa City, IA, USA; Iowa Hawkeyes forward Aaron White (30) shoots against the Penn State Nittany Lions at Carver Hawkeye Arena. Mandatory Credit: Reese Strickland-USA TODAY Sports

Things started out well enough for the Lions, racing out to a 10-3 lead behind three point shots from Brandon Taylor and Jermaine Marshall.  But coming out of the first media timeout of the Hawkeyes found their rhythm, and Penn State’s offense caught up with them.  Iowa would score 14 straight points, aided by missed shots, offensive rebounds, and yes, turnovers.  All told, the Lions committed 11 of them in the first half, as the Hawkeyes would go to the halftime break with a 34-26 lead.  If you were to look across the rest of the stat sheet, the Lions were not awful.  The shooting percentage was where it has been all year (35%), but the defense was strong, holding Iowa to just 39% from the field, and 20% from three.  Those 11 turnovers were the difference in an otherwise even half.

The second half started out about how the bulk of the first half went.  D.J. Newbill turned the ball over, and the Hawkeyes went down the floor and hit a three to open up an 11 point lead.  Then a funny thing happened.  Instead of folding, the Lions rattled off 8 straight to pull within 3 points just 3 minutes into the half.  PSU would hang around for the next few minutes, until a 9-0 run would open up a lead that PSU would never seriously threaten.

Newbill lead PSU with 20 points, 5 rebounds and 4 assists, but also lead the team with 5 turnovers.  All told, the Lions committed 17 of them on the night.  Jermaine Marshall contributed 15 to the cause.  Pat Chambers continued search for a reliable 3rd scorer goes on, with no other player adding more than 8 (Brandon Taylor).  Ross Travis’ continued descent into jump shooter continues to be worrisome, and makes you wonder just how healthy his knee truly is .  Iowa did not shoot the ball particularly well (40%, 24% from three), but those turnovers, as well as 39 trips to the free throw line made up for their offensive struggles. Aaron White was dominant, however, scoring a career high 27.

Penn State gets a much needed weekend off, before returning home to face Purdue in the Jordan Center on Tuesday at 7:00.  The Boilermakers at home present one of PSU’s better shots to get their first Big 10 wins the remainder of the season.

Follow VBR Lead Editor Matt de Bear on Twitter for the latest on Penn State

THE LAST TIME OUT

Penn State hosted then #14 Ohio State Saturday, before a national TV audience on ESPN2, and the largest crowd to see the Lions at home this season.  Both teams were hot on the offensive end to start, with the score tied at 11 just 5 minutes in.  The Buckeyes would go on an 15-1 run at that point, and PSU was fortunate to only trail by 11 at the break.  PSU would hang around for much of the 2nd half, but never really threatened OSU, in part due to a surprisingly poor afternoon at the free throw line.  For a team that shoots above 70% from the line, the Lions have struggled at some bad times from the charity stripe.  By the time the final horn sounded, OSU claimed a 65-51 win.  Jermaine Marshall lead the Lions with 16 points and D.J. Newbill had 15.  As a team, PSU only turned the ball over 4 times, but was unable to overcome poor shooting all over the floor.

ABOUT THE HAWKEYES

In his third season on the bench, head coach Fran McCaffery finally has his Hawkeyes playing more of the up tempo style he desires.  The victories have been few and far between in the league, but Iowa has played with most teams on their schedule, losing 3 of their 5 B1G games by 4 points or less, including their last game, 65-62 in overtime at Purdue.  They have been very good at home as well.  6-6 G/F Roy Devyn Marble leads the way with over 14 points per game, with sophomore forward Aaron White right behind at 13 per game.  Iowa is not a particularly good shooting club, at just 43.1% from the field, and just over 30% from 3.  Only Marble (35.1%) is above the 35% mark from beyond the arc.  Where the Hawks are very good is on the glass, averaging 40 boards per game.

THE MATCHUP

As is the case with most games, PSU will need to control the tempo to stay in the game, but it will be crucial against a Hawkeye team that wants to run a little bit.  PSU can count on Newbill and Marshall to get their points, but as Chambers implored earlier this week, he needs a third scorer.  He singled out Ross Travis and Brandon Taylor as two guys that have that in them.  Travis showed flashes of potential earlier in the season, but has been settling for jumpers, instead of attacking the basket.  Taylor was PSU’s most reliable outside shooter, but the freshman has at times struggled with fouls, and now has lost his shot.  Perhaps no player on the Lions roster needs a break more than Taylor, who may be feeling the effects of his first collegiate season.  Carver-Hawkeye Arena has not been particularly kind to PSU over the years, and I don’t expect much to change.  This is one of those games that I think gets out of hand early, and stays that way.  Iowa wins big.  But at least we’ll always have that enjoyable 38-14 win this past fall.

Follow VBR Lead Editor Matt de Bear on Twitter for the latest on Penn State

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Let’s take a look at the games and predict who, if anyone, will represent the Big Ten in those bowls.

ROSE BOWL (Big Ten #1):

Nebraska
The Huskers control their own destiny and have two winnable games left in Iowa and Minnesota. They should be favored over Wisconsin.

Potential Opponents: Oregon, USC, Notre Dame

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CAPITAL ONE BOWL (Big Ten #2):

Michigan
Michigan probably won’t play in the conference championship, but they’ll deserve this bid after finishing the season with a likely 8-4 record.

Potential Opponents: LSU, Georgia, Florida

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OUTBACK BOWL (Big Ten #3)

Wisconsin
If the Badgers aren’t careful, Northwestern could find themselves in this game. Should only take one more win for Wisconsin but they have Ohio State and Penn State left on the schedule.

Potential Opponents: Florida, LSU, South Carolina

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GATOR BOWL (Big Ten #4-5)

Northwestern
If they could play worth a damn in the second half of games, they’d be in Rose Bowl contention. Still, it’s hard to see them playing before January 1st.

Potential Opponents: Mississippi State, Vanderbilt, South Carolina

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BUFFALO WILD WINGS BOWL (Big Ten #4-5)

Michigan State
Sparty still needs a win to become bowl eligible but they should get it against Minnesota in the final week of the season.

Potential Opponents: Texas Tech, TCU, Oklahoma State

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MEINEKE CAR CARE BOWL OF TEXAS (Big Ten #6)

Minnesota
The Gophers are the 5th and final Big Ten team that is currently bowl eligible. They’ll struggle to get another win but are all but guaranteed a bowl due to the circumstances.

Potential Opponents: TCU, West Virginia, Iowa State

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HEART OF DALLAS BOWL (Big 10 #7)

Purdue
The Boilermakers have just 4 wins but play Illinois and Indiana in the next two weeks. They have the best shot at becoming bowl eligible.

Potential Opponents: Iowa State, TCU, West Virginia

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LITTLE CAESARS PIZZA BOWL (Big 10 #8)

It’s almost impossible for the Big Ten to fill this bowl. Iowa needs to beat Nebraska and Michigan to make it happen. Indiana has a shot, but they’d have to beat Penn State and Purdue. If they do so, Purdue will not be bowl eligible.

Conclusion: The Big Ten may send only 6 teams to bowl games. Due to Ohio State and Penn State’s ineligibility, several of the teams will be slotted above where their talent says they should be. That could be bad news for the conference in bowl games.

For all of the latest on the Penn State Nittany Lions, follow VBR Lead Editor Tim Tolley on Twitter.

It turns out that there are 35 bowl games to be played in the months of December and January.  That means 70 of the 124 FBS schools will be playing in a post-season contest.  However, of the 124 we must exclude teams like Penn State, Ohio State, and North Carolina as they have been disqualified from bowl game participation due to NCAA sanctions.  Now we are down to 121 eligible FBS schools (57.8% will play in bowl games this year).

In order to be eligible for a bowl game, a team must win at least 50% of their games which turns out to be 6 wins (there are some NCAA loopholes that will allow an under .500 team to make a bowl game, but it is a rarity).  To date, 27 schools, not including the ineligible teams, have already played themselves OUT of post-season play by having an under-.500 record, and 48 have already stamped their passes for a bowl game.  So, we have 46 remaining eligible teams playing for 22 open spots.

If you are still dizzy over the math, that’s fine.  Simply put, most teams do go to the post-season.  Nearly all the bowl games are played in mid-December or later so the extra practice time for teams, especially for younger players, is an invaluable springboard for the next year.  Besides, the extra practice time and a chance to go to warmer climates (at least in most cases), the schools reap a whirlwind of extra cash for their athletic budgets.  Many schools rely on their football team to provide the necessary funding for the other intercollegiate sports to excel.  All but a few schools are capable to work in the counter.  Football really is the life-blood of an FBS school’s athletic budget.

So, while 70 teams will be enjoying extra practice time, a trip to a more tropical paradise, and a monetary windfall, there will be 24 teams left out in the cold to wonder “what if” and dwell on that going into the 2013 season.

As I mentioned earlier, I want to use this segment to examine a few surprise teams.  Teams that may not make a bowl that we would typically associate as playing in the post-season, and those teams that may go bowling that usually do not.

So without further ado, let’s see who we’ve got!

Free Falling!

Nov 1, 2012; Miami, FL, USA; Virginia Tech Hokies running back Tony Gregory (22) runs against Miami Hurricanes during their game at Sun Life Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Steve Mitchell-US PRESSWIRE

Virginia Tech Hokies

Current Record: 4-5

Remaining Schedule:  H – Florida State, @ Boston College, H – Virginia

Likelihood of making a bowl:  90%

The Hokies are such an odd team this year.  I recall there opening game against Georgia Tech that came down to the final play in OT before Va Tech came away with the win.  They were on such a roll until they were stopped by a marginal Pitt team and then by an unranked Cincinnati Bearcat team.  Perhaps most puzzling is how a Frank Beamer-coached team could be out-worked, out-hustled, and out-coached on defense and special teams, two areas that Virginia Tech usually excels.

Florida State comes to Blacksburg to pay a visit this Thursday night.  Typically the Seminoles and the Hokies are playing for the ACC crown and a berth in a BCS bowl, but not this year for the Hokies.  Va Tech needs to win 2 of their remaining 3 games to qualify for the post-season.  A loss to Florida State on Thursday means that the Hokies can not win the ACC’s Coastal Division, and it puts their bowl aspirations on the brink, but Va Tech does end the year with very winnable games.  They have to travel to Boston College and play Virginia in their end-of-the-year rivalry game.

Even though chances are decent that Virginia Tech will lose Thursday night, they still should have a very good shot at making a bowl game this year.

Predicted Finish:  6-6

Key Question & Answer:  Does Virginia Tech make a bowl game?  Yes

Nov. 3, 2012; Bloomington, IN, USA; Iowa Hawkeyes running back Damon Bullock (32) during the fourth quarter against the Indiana Hoosiers at Memorial Stadium. Indiana defeated Iowa 24-21. Mandatory Credit: Jerry Schultheiss-US PRESSWIRE

Iowa Hawkeyes

Current Record: 4-5

Remaining Schedule:  H – Purdue, @ Michigan, H – Nebraska

Likelihood of making a bowl:  20-30%

It’s very likely that Iowa lost their shot at getting to a bowl game with their defeat at Indiana last week.  The Hawkeyes must win 2 of their last 3 games in order to qualify, and that will be no easy task considering they have yet to play the likes of Michigan and Nebraska.  Iowa coach Kirk Ferentz has struggled to piece together enough offense to keep his Hawkeye team in most games.  Luckily for him, the defense has been above average.  The Hawkeyes best wins have come against the MAC’s Northern Illinois (their only loss so far) and against Michigan State.

After the win against the Spartans, the Hawkeyes were sitting at 2-0 in the Legend’s Division and were poised to make a run at the division crown.  Penn State soundly beat them the following week and things have not been the same in Iowa City since.  Iowa has lost two more games and 3 straight to put a bowl opportunity in serious jeopardy.

To be fair, Iowa has dealt with more than their fair share of injuries, especially at the running back position.  I have no idea what number they are on, but its safe to say whatever number it is, they probably weren’t on coach Ferentz’s original depth chart.

The Hawkeye’s defense has been a bright spot for the team.  They are ranked 29th nationally in points allowed, giving up an average of 21.4 points per game.  Secondary players like Micah Hyde and Greg Castillo have made it difficult for opposing wide receivers to get open.

At this point, the way Iowa has been playing of late, I would expect that they have a legitimate chance of beating Purdue, but asking them to then beat either Michigan or Nebraska who are both playing for a shot to get the Big Ten’s title game, might be asking a bit much from this Iowa Hawkeyes squad.

Predicted Finish:  5-7

Key Question & Answer:  Does Iowa make a bowl game?  No

November 02, 2012; Berkeley, CA, USA; California Golden Bears quarterback Zach Maynard (15) looks for an open receiver against the Washington Huskies during the second quarter at Memorial Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kelley L Cox-US PRESSWIRE

California Golden Bears

Current Record: 3-7

Remaining Schedule:  H – Oregon, @ Oregon State

Likelihood of making a bowl:  0%

What was once a promising outlook for the Cal Bears and head coach Jeff Tedford has turned into a nightmare as the Bears can’t seem to get out of their own way.  The Bears have lost 3 in a row and 6 of their last 8 games.  They were eliminated from post-season play before the calendar have turned to November.  While Tedford is one of the nation’s best recruiters (i.e. recruited Aaron Rodgers and Jahvid Best), he has been unable to turn that talent into a winning football program with any consistency.

The Bears had such high hopes for the season as they were moving back in to their newly refurbished Memorial Stadium.  So, how did they kick off the new stadium – that’s right, with a loss to Nevada.  Now Nevada is actually a decent football team this year, but Cal is supposed to win games like that.  Cal followed up that loss by losing 3 of their next 4 games including a heart-breaker at Ohio State and at USC.

The Bears looked like they may have righted the ship with a modest 2-game winning streak including a win over 25th ranked UCLA, but their misfortunes returned and are currently stuck in 3-game losing streak.  The streak is likely to extend as the #2 Oregon Ducks come calling to Berkeley this weekend.  The Bears mercifully end their campaign next weekend when they travel to Corvallis to take on the Oregon State Beavers.

Could this be coach Tedford’s last season at the helm of the Bears?  Many think it may be time for a change, but he can still draw in nationally ranked recruits, and as long as top-notch players are still willing to come to your school, then you always have a chance to make things better quickly.  We’ll see if he is afforded the opportunity to make things better next year.

Predicted Finish:  3-9

Key Question & Answer:  Does head coach Jeff Tedford get fired?  Yes

Honorable Mentions:  Georgia Tech, Michigan State, West Virginia, Baylor, Tennessee, Missouri, Arkansas, Auburn, Virginia

Offensive Player of the Game:

October 20, 2012; Iowa City, IA, USA; Iowa Hawkeyes cornerback Greg Castillo (2) tackles Penn State Nittany Lions running back Bill Belton (1) during the fourth quarter at Kinnick Stadium. Penn State beat Iowa 38-14. Mandatory Credit: Reese Strickland-US PRESSWIRE

Bill Belton

Penn State’s number one running back is finally healthy again, following a week one ankle injury. Despite the success Zach Zwinak has had in recent weeks, Belton reminded fans why he is the guy. Belton adds a different dimension to the PSU offense, evident from the first play of the game when he lined up in the slot and caught a pass. He also possesses speed and elusiveness that the other backs don’t have.
His 103 rushing yards and 3 touchdowns were enough to beat the Hawkeyes without any additional offense, but he still has to work on keeping the football protected.

HONORABLE MENTION: Matt McGloin

GO STATE! BEAT IOWA! #LakeIowa

— Matt d (@PSUMatt2005) October 21, 2012

Kickoff.  Nothing of note, other than a strong desire to see Iowa turned into the world’s largest swimming pool….or outdoor skating rink in the winter.

LOOK AT THAT HIGH POWERED IOWA OFFENSE!

— Matt d (@PSUMatt2005) October 21, 2012

Iowa takes the opening kickoff and does exactly what you’d expect Iowa to do with the opening kick.  Nothing.

Only in Iowa would they no nuts for a 4 yard rush. — Matt d (@PSUMatt2005) October 21, 2012

I’m pretty sure this was after Mark Weisman’s first (and probably longest) carry of the game.  This was arguably the Iowa offensive highlight of the night.

Remember that time an Iowa writer said Iowa had the advantage at tight end.Our 3rd TE just caught a 31 yard TD pass. — Matt d (@PSUMatt2005) October 21, 2012

This would become a theme for most of the night.  Some Iowa writer gave the Hawkeyes the edge at TE because, and I quote, “they block better”.  Stay tuned on this one…

#KickingIsForQuitters #AndIowa #SameThing — Matt d (@PSUMatt2005) October 21, 2012

Iowa sort of did stuff on offense and got close enough to try a field goal.  Said field goal sailed wide.  If you haven’t been paying attention, going for it is almost always a better decision.  Also, I like hashtags.

Iowa not prepared for PSU to go for it on 4th and short on their side of the field.Scouting is hard when they don’t have video in Iowa yet — Matt d (@PSUMatt2005) October 21, 2012

BOB naturally decided to go for it on 4th down on the Iowa side of the field.  Iowa was forced to call timeout, as they were not even close to being ready for PSU’s offense to stay on the field.  Iowa either doesn’t own video equipment, or just assumed Joe was still in charge.  Probably both.

I just wish our TEs blocked as well as Iowa’s do. — Matt d (@PSUMatt2005) October 21, 2012

I’m pretty sure this was after Kyle Carter’s leaping grab on 4th down.  Told you it was a theme.

Never a good sign when you end up with the training staffs from both teams on the field. — Matt d (@PSUMatt2005) October 21, 2012

Iowa’s talented left tackle Brandon Scherff went out in the 2nd quarter with a serious leg injury.  A bad night for Iowa was getting worse quickly.

“Probably going to be 4 down territory for Bill O’Brien”.Since this is a football field, it’s 4 down territory. — Matt d (@PSUMatt2005) October 21, 2012

The first part is an actual quote from whoever the clown on the BTN broadcast was.  The second part is what we all know is true.  BOB is going for it on 4th down roughly 98.6% of the time.  It’s just a fact.

We are kicking field goals on you Iowa.Resistance is futile. — Matt d (@PSUMatt2005) October 21, 2012

This was one of those 1.4% of 4th downs where in BOB elected to kick.  Naturally Sam Ficken rewarded this confidence with a made field goal.  If you didn’t know it already, the rout was on.

Best 15 yard penalty ever taken.#LakeIowa — Matt d (@PSUMatt2005) October 21, 2012

After Bill Belton ran 11 yards for his first of 3 touchdowns, he was flagged for taunting, after holding his finger to his lips to quiet the Iowa crowd.  Apparently this is frowned upon, although I think the penalty might have only been called because it was not required.  Kinnick was practically silent by then.

I’d like to take this opportunity to revisit the @victorybellring predictions that angered the Iowans last week: bit.ly/T7Xll2 — Matt d (@PSUMatt2005) October 21, 2012

Halftime.

In 2008, Penn State was riding an emotional crest that saw them wins their first 9 games including wins at Wisconsin and Ohio State sandwiched around a win against Michigan.  The Lions were 3 wins shy of making it to the national title game.  Standing in the way of destiny…the Iowa Hawkeyes.  Penn State was ahead at the end of three quarters by the scores of 23-14.  After an Iowa touchdown, Penn State was flagged for a controversial pass interference penalty that gave Iowa good enough field position to kick the game-winning field goal as time expired.  Down went the Nittany Lions BCS title hopes.

Many were highly anticipating the rematch of Iowa and Penn State at Beaver Stadium in 2009.  Penn State opened the game with long Daryll Clark-to-Chaz Powell 79 yard touchdown play on their first offensive play from scrimmage.  Penn State would go on and add a short field goal on their next possession.  The Nittany Lions led 10-0 and wouldn’t score another point.  The game turned when Iowa’s Adrian Clayborn blocked a punt to open the fourth quarter and returned it 53 yards for a score.  That was a special teams momentum changer from which Penn State never fully recovered.  They went on to lose the game 21-10.

And, who could forget the 2004 Penn State-Iowa Classic that ended 6-4.  To this day, that was the most embarrassing and sad game I think I have ever seen, not just live, but EVER!  That game fell in the middle of a stretch where Penn State lost 6 consecutive games.  What I recall about that game was Iowa having the punter run out of the end zone and take a safety (the second such occurrence of the game mind you!) with only a few minutes remaining in the game.  By taking the safety, that put the score at Iowa 6 and Penn State 4, thereby allowing Penn State to get the ball, needing just a field goal to win.  Penn State was so inept, they couldn’t even move the ball far enough to get a field goal chance.  Needless to say, that game was one of the low points for Joe Paterno and his coaching staff.

Each year brings new hope and optimism that this will be OUR year.  Well, for Penn State fans, OUR year won’t be for awhile, but we still get a chance to exorcise those pesky Hawkeye demons.  The Nittany Lions haven’t won in Kinnick Stadium since 1999.  Bill O’Brien is hoping that a change in staff and a change in philosophy will be the tonic that Penn State needs to get a second consecutive win in this series.  Last year Penn State whipped Iowa at Beaver Stadium by the score of 13-3.  Tailback Silas Redd was a dominant force that the Hawkeye defenders could not tackle.

In 2012, Penn State and Iowa seem to be very similar in many ways.  Both teams enter the contest 4-2 overall, but 2-0 in their respective divisions.  Both teams have somewhat erratic offenses but superb defenses.  The outcome of Saturday night’s game will likely hinge on who can take advantage of turnovers, and who can convert those opportunities into scores.

Let’s see what my keys to the game are for a Penn State win over Iowa:

The Hawkeye is a Pest. 

Literally. It says so right HERE…kind of. The words “Hawkeye”, “pest” and “bird” are all there! Which actually brings great logic to the fact that Iowa is the “Hawkeye State.” Doesn’t is all make so much more sense now???
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Hayden Fry: Most Overrated Coach in History

At some point Saturday, the announcers will make a statement about “legendary coach Hayden Fry.” Not to disrespect an old guy, but in 21 years at  the helm, coach Fry averaged less than 7 wins per year. That’s what you wanna hang your hat on? The Pest Birds named their athletic facility after a guy who was just barely bowl-eligible, on average. Awesome.
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Iowa Fans Don’t Believe in Logic.

After some Pest fans got ahold of my 31-6 prediction, they came at me on Twitter with loads of useless knowledge. They wanted to make sure that I knew about the 2004 game and how Penn State hasn’t won at Kinnick since 1999. They wanted to make sure that I was aware of Jerry Sandusky and this guy, one of my personal favorites:

@dan_welter @timtolleyvbr more like timtrLOLlleyvbr

— Robert Mack (@bmackdsm) October 18, 2012

Rather than argue WHY Iowa might beat Penn State, they went with “timtrLOLlleyvbr.” Iowa sucks at offense. Arguably their best offensive threat will be limited, if not out on Saturday. Their quarterback has 2 touchdowns and 3 interceptions on the year. They scored 3 points against Penn State last year and this offense isn’t as good. Saying they’ll score 6 might be generous on my part. Rather than tell me why any of that isn’t rational, I get

Hey @timtolleyvbr, what bowl do you think Penn State will make it to this year?

— Dan Welter (@Dan_Welter) October 18, 2012

Thanks for playing, dummy. One knucklehead even tweeted the link to the predictions to coach Ferentz with the heading BULLETIN BOARD MATERIAL, as though that will make the team play better. Look, if losing to Central Michigan wasn’t enough to motivate this team, there’s nothing that I can do to help.
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Iowa: Another “Little Brother”

As if it’s not bad enough that we had to sit through games against the 2nd best team in Ohio (Ohio), the 3rd best team in Illinois (Illinois) and the worst team in the state of Pennsylvania and Big East (Temple), now we get to watch the second (maybe third- I see you Iowa Western CC) best team in IOWA? By losing to Iowa State, the perennial doormat of the Big 12, Iowa secured their spot as the worst football team in the worst football state in the country.
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November 8, 2008

Penn State was ranked #3 fresh off of a bye week that followed a win over a top 5 Ohio State team. Penn State was staring a potential undefeated season right in the face. Trailing 23-14 when the fourth quarter started, Iowa scored 10 unanswered points including the game-winning field goal by Daniel Murray in the final seconds. Murray made just 6 of 9 field goals that year and was 32 of 62 on his career. Penn State went on to win the rest of their regular season games, before losing in the Rose Bowl. Iowa, as usual, didn’t matter.
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September 26, 2009

“Revenge Day.”#5 Penn State at home, at night, in front of a whiteout. After 2008, this would be the day that Penn State would exact (not extract, apparently) revenge. On their first play from scrimmage, Penn State scored a touchdown and the crowd assumed they were setting the tone. However, that would be the Nittany Lions’ last touchdown of the day. Iowa dominated in the trenches and Penn State turned the ball over time and time again. The Hawkeyes would score 16 points in the 4th and win 21-10. Penn State would only lose one more time that season. Iowa still didn’t matter.
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February, 2009

Muscatine, Iowa is just west of the Mississippi river. It’s part of, or near something that’s called the Quad City or Quad Cities or some junk. The Quad City? is actually comprised of four small craphole towns that are near enough to one another that a shopping plaza is necessary. I spent a week there for work, in the middle of winter. The temperature hovered around 8 degrees for the week and the wind whipped off the Rockies straight through town because there’s NOTHING between the river and Montana. At one point that week, I took the company car to Walmart to walk around. Yeah, that’s my experience with Iowa. I spent a week away from my family, drinking at a hotel bar and humoring myself with laps at the local Walmart because that’s what there is to do there. More so than any football game, that week is why I hate Iowa.

If you need more reasons, check out WHY IOWA SUCKS over at Onward State.
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For all of the latest on the Penn State Nittany Lions or to harass somebody about a game in 2004, follow VBR Lead Editor Tim Tolley on Twitter.

“We recruit every night. After practice we watch the tape, and then every Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday night we’re making our recruiting calls, we’re writing letters, we’re watching film, we’re evaluating. Not only for myself but for the whole staff, we spend two or three hours each night just on recruiting.”

While many fans were critical of the last staff’s efforts, it appears that is a thing of the past. Bill O’Brien and his coaches understand the importance of recruiting and the attention to detail they must pay with the limitations placed on them.

“A lot of times you’ll have a recruiting class, you’ll sign 25 kids and maybe six or seven of those guys don’t pan out for you. We can’t afford that luxury of signing a certain amount of guys and not having a quarter of them pan out.”

He also says that the sanctions haven’t presented too much of a problem thus far.

“Kids are still excited to come here, excited to play here, they love the style of offense and defense that we’re employing here. So it really hasn’t been an issue for us.”

While London admitted that Penn State may look to the JuCo route more often in the future, he also noted that the basis of recruiting will remain the same.

“Our goals are not going to change, our objectives are not going to change. We’re still going to go out and recruit the best players in our area and try to get them to come here to Penn State.”

London was also asked about aspirations to be a head coach.

“One day would I like to be a head coach? Certainly. I’ve got a great mentor here in coach O’Brien.”

 

For all of the latest on the Penn State Nittany Lions, follow VBR Lead Editor Tim Tolley on Twitter.

While Iowa out-gained Penn State by a mere 48 yards, 3:36 in time of possession, was similarly lousy on third-down conversions (sub-23%) and turned the ball over the same amount, Iowa was able to average 10.3 yards per attempt on its way to a 21-point win — the largest in series history for Iowa. Iowa would end up 8-5, beating #12 Missouri in the Insight Bowl, while Penn State finished 7-6.

It is important to note that Penn State is traveling to Iowa City off a bye week this year. The last three times Penn State has played Iowa off a bye – 2003, 2004, 2008 – Iowa has come away with the victory.

Follow Craig Dauman on Twitter!

AIRBHG has claimed dozens of running backs over the last decade and had a banner year in 2012.
McCall: Transfer
Coker: Transfer
Canzeri: Torn ACL
Garmon: (After mocking AIRBHG on twitter) Arrested
Johnson: Cited by cops. Kicked off team.
Hill: Torn ACL
Bullock: Concussion
Garmon: Replaces Bullock, injures elbow.

That’s since January of 2012. 10 months.

The AIRBHG may have struck again.

Backup fullback-turned stud running back Mark Weisman left last week’s game against Michigan State with a sprained ankle. While not severe the timing could not be worse. Iowa is 2-0 in the Big Ten with an outside shot at the conference championship game. On Tuesday, head coach Kirk Ferentz said the Weisman has been medically cleared to play Saturday against Penn State, but wouldn’t say that he would. In fact, ESPN calls him doubtful. Weisman has over 600 yards on the season and managed to avoid the AIRBHG for half the season.

If (when) Weisman can’t go, his replacement will likely be a member of the 2012 hit-list. Damon Bullock should be fully recovered from his concussion and Jordan Canzeri has apparently recovered quickly from his torn ACL. Bullock had 65 carries for 280 yards on the season before suffering his concussion. Canzeri doesn’t have a carry this season but rushed for 114 yards on 31 carries in 2011.

Penn State freshman running back Akeel Lynch briefly considered a transfer to Iowa following the sanctions in July. Had he made the move and avoided the AIRBHG, Lynch would have been in line for extended action this week against the Nittany Lions. Odds are, Lynch and Penn State both dodged a bullet on this one.

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For all of the latest on the Penn State Nittany Lions, follow VBR Lead Editor Tim Tolley on Twitter.

University of Iowa 

Iowa City, Iowa

Head Coach: Kirk Ferentz (96-66 career)

2011 Record: 7-6

2012 Record: 4-2

Key Players: 

QB #16 James Vandenberg: Filled in for a game against Ohio State in 2010 and showed a glimpse into the future for Hawkeye fans. Last year he took over the starting job and lived up to that glimpse, throwing for 3,000 yards and 25 touchdowns, solidifying himself as the best pro-style quarterback in the conference. Has not been as successful this year.

RB #45 Mark Weisman: Started the season as a back up fullback, but  due to the AIRBHG, he has been forced into a ball-carrying spot. Weisman has made the most of his opportunity and has been the team’s best offensive player to this point. He’s carried the ball just 100 times, but has 631 yards and 8 touchdowns through the first 6 games.

LB #31 Anthony Hitchens: One of just a few players in the Big Ten averaging 10+ tackles per game, Hitchens is a beast in run support. He has 63 tackles on the year including 3 tackles for loss and will hear his name called often this Saturday.

SUMMARY:

The 2012 version of the Iowa Hawkeyes hasn’t been exactly what you’ve come to expect from Kirk Ferentz. Losses to Central Michigan and Iowa State highlight the deficiencies in this year’s team.

However, Iowa had their bye a week ago and may have used that time to regroup. They came out last Saturday and beat a solid Michigan State team in East Lansing, despite scoring just one touchdown.

Unlike last week, this is a team that Penn State is simply better than, offensively. I expect Bill O’Brien and Matt McGloin to give Iowa a steady dose of the hurry-up, “NASCAR” offense. If they can get the Hawkeyes on their toes, they have a chance to put this game away early.  However, Iowa is still a Kirk Ferentz-coached team so they are going to play hard for 60 minutes.

I expect a low scoring game but if Penn State can get up and neutralize the Iowa rushing attack, they could pull away. The Iowa rushing game and defense sort of mirror Penn State’s. The X-Factor, if you will, will be Matt McGloin, who is having a better season than any of the quarterbacks Iowa has faced this year.

Fun Facts:

• In 2011, James Vandenberg threw 25 TDs on 404 attempts. In 195 attempts this year, he has just 2 touchdowns.
• Iowa has won three of the last four against Penn State.
• Penn State and Iowa’s leading rushers were both backup fullbacks with zero carries coming into spring practice.
• Iowa has the 21st ranked scoring defense, allowing just 17.2 ppg, but just the 100th ranked scoring offense, with 22 ppg.
• Penn State is 1-2 following their last three byes, including a 1 point loss to Iowa in 2008.
• Penn State opened as a 1.5 point underdog in this year’s matchup.

For all of the latest on the Penn State Nittany Lions, follow VBR Lead Editor Tim Tolley on Twitter.

Georgia 7 at South Carolina (-2) 35

Matt – Georgia (L)

Tim – South Carolina (W)

Craig – Georgia (L)

Corey – Georgia (L)

West Virginia 48 at Texas (-6.5) 45

Matt – Texas (L)

Tim – West Virginia (W)

Craig – West Virginia (W)

Corey – Texas (L)

Nebraska 38 at Ohio State (-3) 63

Matt – Ohio State (W)

Tim – Nebraska (L)

Craig – Nebraska (L)

Corey – Ohio State (W)

LSU (-2.5) 6 at Florida 14

Matt – Florida (W)

Tim – Florida (W)

Craig – LSU (L)

Corey – Florida (W)

Michigan (-3) 44 at Purdue 13

Matt – Purdue (L)

Tim – Purdue (L)

Craig – Purdue (L)

Corey – Purdue (L)

This week’s point spreads are from Monday evening.

South Carolina 17 (-7) at Vanderbilt 13

Matt – South Carolina (L)

Tim – South Carolina (L)

Craig – South Carolina (L)

Corey – South Carolina (L)

Chris – South Carolina (L)

Boise State 13 at Michigan State (-7) 17

Matt – Michigan State (L)

Tim – Michigan State (L)

Craig – Michigan State (L)

Corey – Michigan State (L)

Chris – Michigan State (L)

Notre Dame 50 (-16.5) at Navy 10

Matt – Navy (L)

Tim- Navy (L)

Craig – Navy (L)

Corey – Notre Dame (W)

Chris – Notre Dame (W)

Ohio 24 at Penn State 14 (-6)

Matt – Penn State (L)

Tim – Penn State (L)

Craig – Penn State (L)

Corey – Penn State (L)

Chris – Penn State (L)

Michigan 14 at Alabama 41 (-12.5)

Matt – Alabama (W)

Tim – Alabama (W)

Craig – Michigan (L)

Corey – Michigan (L)

Chris – Alabama (W)

Now, onto Week 2.  Chris celebrated his “not nearly as bad as the rest of us” Week 1 a little too hard, and will not be appearing this week.  As a reminder, spreads are as of Tuesday morning.

As usual, it wasn’t pretty, but on Saturday afternoon, Penn State pounded their way to their second win of the Big Ten season with a 13-3 victory over Iowa. After being stunned by the Hawkeyes in 2008 and 2009, and then thoroughly trounced last season, it was good for Penn State to finally defeat a team that had been bothering them for so long. However, the win was even more important because it showed State could still play excellent defense even without some key pieces. We also may have gotten a teensy weensy bit closer to just maybe settling on one starting quarterback. Let’s hit it.

Just run it up the middle

I just love writing about which quarterback Penn State should play, but on Saturday that weird situation took a backseat to the rushing offense. The Nittany Lion offensive line of Quinn Barham, Johnnie Troutman, Matt Stankiewitch, DeOn’tae Pannell and Chima Okoli dominated the game while opening up plenty of holes for Silas Redd and Curtis Dukes to run through. Stephfon Green actually saw very limited action in this game as well, but his presence should continue to be mitigated by how well Redd and Dukes are playing. Redd handled most of the action with 28 carries for 142 yards, while Dukes had 60 yards for himself on just nine carries.

On Penn State’s only touchdown drive early in the fourth quarter, they ran the ball for 10 plays in a row before finally cashing in on a play action pass from Matt McGloin to Kevin Haplea. It’s not a stretch to say that PSU imposed their will on Iowa in the second half of this game.

About those quarterbacks

Penn State actually had a chance to take a 10-point lead one possession earlier than they actually did. Late in the third quarter, the Nittany Lions drove all the way from their own 4 yard line to the Iowa 6 before Matt McGloin threw an interception in the corner of the endzone. It was McGloin’s first interception of the season, and it certainly could have been thrown better, but overall McGloin was a positive for the Penn State offense. Iowa had the middle of the field covered well the whole game, save for the time McGloin found Devon Smith on a crossing route for 21 yards. Mostly McGloin had success working the sidelines with Derek Moye and Justin Brown. Brown in particular showed some nice footwork while keeping himself in bounds. On his 19 passes, McGloin completed 12 for 133 yards. That’s not spectacular, but it was just fine for a day in which Penn State’s running game took the reins of the offense. (more…)

Saturday’s 16-10 Penn State victory over Indiana wasn’t without its bumps and bruises. The Daily Collegian does a great job keeping up with the various maladies suffered here and there. It turns out that cornerback Stephon Morris hurt his ankle during the game and sat himself out for most of the second half. Defensive end Sean Stanley made it sound as though Morris could have came back in the game, but he decided not to chance it because his back-up, freshman Adrian Amos, was filling in so admirably.

Defensive end Sean Stanley said Morris, who broke up four passes before leaving, had a boot on during and after the game, but it may have been precautionary.

Stanley said Morris may have been able to reenter, but Amos stood tall and held his own in the game’s waning minutes.

“He could’ve played, but [Amos] wasn’t doing a bad job,” Stanley said. “So why not leave him out there?”

Defensive coordinator Tom Bradley also thinks that Morris could have played in the second half if he really needed to. I’m thinking that when Morris took himself out of the game and into a boot, he didn’t expect Indiana to be within six points with two minutes left. (more…)