• Penn State (-4) vs. Syracuse – In short: STAY. AWAY. I like PSU’s chances in this one, but with both teams breaking in new quarterbacks, and the Orange featuring a new head coach as well, there are just too many unknowns for me, especially over 100 days before the game.
• Florida State (-6.5) at Pitt – If you follow me on Twitter (and you really should), you already know my thoughts on this one:
  

  //bets mortgage on Florida State -6.5 over Pitt

  — Matt d (@PSUMatt2005) May 20, 2013

  In short, I don’t see any possible way Pitt keeps this close. Florida State just has more talent at every conceivable spot.

• UMass at Wisconson (-45) – I think I like the Minutemen in this one.  Sure, Wisconsin is a vastly superior team, but 45 points is a lot, and the Badgers don’t exactly have a dynamic offense, even if new coach Gary Andersen is a miracle worker on the offensive side of the ball.
• Alabama (-15.5) vs. Virginia Tech – Can anyone give me a reason to think VT has any chance of covering the 15.5 points here?  An Alabama team with many of the same parts, especially at key spots, systematically picked apart Notre Dame, who is much better than the Hokies, with weeks to prepare.  What is Saban going to do with an entire summer, and presumably some slight weakness to harp on to his team for all that time?
• Georgia vs. Clemson (-1) – Give me just a minute to stop drooling over this one…..OK.  Seriously, how great of a match up is this, and in week 1, no less.  Add in the Death Valley (the Clemson one) crowd under the lights, and you’ve got the recipe for a fantastic college football game.  As for who I like? I have no idea.  Clemson has the home crowd, but using Vegas’ 3 points for home field, they think Georgia is 2 points better.

Follow VBR Lead Editor Matt de Bear on Twitter for the latest on Penn State and suspect betting advice.

Not surprisingly, the two time defending champion Crimson Tide lead the way at a healthy 5/2, and why wouldn’t they be?  They have been the dominant program in the country of late, and have shown a remarkable ability to oversign reload under Nick Saban.  Oh, and they have some pretty damn good players coming back, lead by Heisman candidate A.J. McCarron at QB.  You may not even be surprised to see who was the consensus second favorite, our conference pals over at Ohio State at 6/1.  They return nearly every key piece from last year’s 12-0 team, including their own Heisman candidate at quarterback, Braxton Miller.  If you’re looking for my expert opinion (and you really shouldn’t be if you saw my luck at the tables), neither of those would be a bad bet.

But everyone is always most intrigued by the 2nd or 3rd tier teams that could rise up.  By which I mean, the teams that can make you, the gambling public, the biggest return on your investment.  Louisville comes in at 25/1, and with Teddy Bridgewater back, and a (very) favorable schedule.  Perhaps the biggest question for the Cardinals is whether they get enough breaks from other top teams to turn that advantageous, but very weak, schedule into a title game berth.  But after seeing what Bridgewater and Louisville did to a very good Florida defense in the Sugar Bowl, they could very well hang with a perceived superior team.

What if you want a long shot to throw a couple bucks at?  How about Boise State at 100/1?  The schedule comes into play here again, but Boise has been among the most consistent programs in the country for the better part of a decade, and if they get a break or two, much like Louisville, and get to Pasadena, 100/1 doesn’t look so bad.

I’ve also found myself trying to guess where Penn State would fall, were they eligible.  I see a team returning several key pieces on the offensive line, and at the skill positions, but losing a record setting QB, their talented leaders on defense, and a schedule that is not exactly prime for a run to the title.  Teams like Michigan State, Virginia Tech, and Wisconsin all have significant questions to answer, much like PSU, and all three of those programs sit at 100/1 as well.  Let’s just slot the Lions in there as well.

Follow VBR Lead Editor Matt de Bear on Twitter for bad gambling advice, and the latest on Penn State

How They Got Here

Alabama

Jan 9, 2012; New Orleans, LA, USA; Alabama Crimson Tide drill team cheers against the LSU Tigers during the second half of the 2012 BCS National Championship game at the Mercedes-Benz Superdome. Mandatory Credit: Matthew Emmons-US PRESSWIRE

Alabama began their title defense in emphatic fashion, and in a way that likely brought joy to many PSU fans.  The 41-14 season opening blowout against Michigan was the first of 9 straight wins to start the season for the Crimson Tide, including a thrilling 21-17 come from behind victory in Baton Rouge against LSU.  Alabama returned home a week later to face Texas A&M, and fell 29-24 in what would be their only loss of the season.  The win over LSU gave Alabama the SEC West title, and a date with Georgia in the SEC Championship, where the Tide scored late on an A.J. McCarron to Amari Cooper touchdown pass, then held on to beat the Bulldogs and return to the title game

Notre Dame

December 29, 2011; Orlando, FL, USA; Notre Dame Irish cheerleaders on the sideline against the Florida State Seminoles at the 2011 Champs Sports Bowl at Citrus Bowl. Mandatory Credit: Brad Barr-USA TODAY Sports

The Irish opened the season unranked, and on the road, in Ireland, against Navy. Notre Dame won that game 50-10, and was on their way.  Defense first, mistake free football would become the calling card for Brian Kelly’s team, as they rattled off close win after close win.  There was the game winning field goal drive by Tommy Rees against Purdue, and the 5 turnovers forced against Michigan in a 13-6 victory.  Notre Dame came from behind to beat Stanford 20-13 in OT, although the Cardinal appeared to have scored a game tying TD on 4th and goal in OT.  They also needed 14 4th quarter points to force OT against unranked Pitt at home, and won in the third extra session.  The 22-13 win at rival USC capped the 12-0 season, and sent Notre Dame to Miami.

Key Matchups

Rushing Offenses vs. Defenses

November 24, 2012; Los Angeles, CA, USA; Notre Dame Fighting Irish linebacker Manti Te

Both teams rely on their running game on offense, and they will be going up against two of the top front sevens in college football.  Notre Dame’s Cierre Wood, Theo Riddick, and even quarterback Everet Golson are going to be challenged by the Crimson Tide front, lead by Butkus finalist, linebacker C.J. Mosley.  On the other side, T.J. Yeldon and Eddie Lacy face Te’o, a likely top 5 draft pick, Louis Nix III and the rest of a very good Irish defense. All told, the Irish defense ranks 1st in the country with Alabama second, each giving up just over 10 points per game this season.

Brian Kelly vs. Nick Saban

Jan 6, 2013; Fort Lauderdale FL, USA; Notre Dame head coach Brian Kelly (left) shakes hands with Alabama Crimson Tide head coach Nick Saban during a press conference for the 2013 BCS National Championship game at Harbor Beach Marriott Resort

One has been here, the other has not.  Brian Kelly has done a masterful job returning Notre Dame to the elite of college football in just his third season in South Bend.  Nick Saban took on a similar challenge when he arrived at Alabama in 2007, and has already cemented his legacy in Tuscaloosa alongside Bear Bryant.  Kelly’s challenge will be matching wits with a coach who is appearing in his 5th national championship game.

Prediction

Anyone who expects Notre Dame to get run out of the stadium is going to be very disappointed.  The Irish defense is as good as advertised, and they are not exactly facing a prolific offense from Alabama.  With that said, Alabama is going to be, quite easily, the most talented team that the Irish have seen this year.  The physical Alabama rushing game will mimic what they saw from Stanford, but the difference will be the quarterback and receiver play that the Tide will bring to the table.  It will not be a blowout, and the Irish will put a scare into Alabama, but in the end, Alabama goes back to back.

Notre Dame 16

Alabama 23

Follow VBR Lead Editor Matt de Bear on Twitter for all the latest on Penn State

We have asked our staff to share their thoughts on the game, including former Lead Editor Tim Tolley.

Matt de Bear

You can read more of my thoughts in my preview from yesterday, but I expect this to be a very close game.  You have the top 2 scoring defenses in the country going head to head, and it’s hard to imagine either offense doing too much.  In the end, I think Alabama just has too much talent and wins 23-16.

Tim Tolley

It seems as though the SEC allure has the nation captivated again as 12-1, 2nd ranked Alabama is almost a double-digit favorite over their undefeated, higher ranked opponent, Notre Dame. Problem is, the almighty SEC wasn’t on par with recent history and ND played an equally strong schedule, from start to finish. Neither team is going to wow you offensively but neither is prone to mistakes. The difference will be the Notre Dame front seven, particularly in the trenches. Those who don’t know the names Nix and Tuitt will by the time the clock hits zero. Notre Dame 17, Alabama 16.

Eric Sion

The match up that headlines this game is Alabama’s offensive line vs. Notre Dame’s defensive front. Both of those units are arguably the best of their respective kind. Expect lots of physical defense from both teams and whoever establishes their running game faster will surely have the advantage. The key will be which quarterback can make the big time throws in critical situations and I believe that A.J. McCarron is more likely to do that because he has the championship game experience. Alabama 20-14.

Scott Anderson

Notre Dame has a very strong defense, but they haven’t faced an offense like Alabama’s.  Notre Dame’s offense won’t be able to keep up, and the game could get ugly if ND’s defense doesn’t play their best game of the season Monday night.  Alabama wins 31-13.

Chuck Reynolds

This prediction is most definitely biased. I have despised Notre Dame from my childhood (I was born in 1959) and I have heard from my friends @Rowlffdogg and @kellieguinan how poorly they were treated by the ND fans in 2006. As for the game itself ND’s offense will not be able to move the ball. Alabama 27 Notre Dame 10.

The Big 10 is in Bad Shape

Dec 3, 2011; Indianapolis, IN, USA; Wisconsin Badgers head coach Bret Bielema hoists the Big Ten Championship trophy after defeating the Michigan State Spartans at Lucas Oil Stadium. Wisconsin won 42-39. Mandatory credit: Michael Hickey-USA TODAY Sports

OK, this is nothing new, but as I look through the conference’s slate of 7 bowl games, I don’t see much good news for the league.  It’s certainly worth mentioning that the best team in the league, Ohio State, is stuck at home due to the sins of coaches and players past, and we all know about Penn State’s situation.  In a season that the Big 10 would have sent 9 teams bowling, and likely only 1 to the BCS, they have instead ended up with an 8-5 Rose Bowl representative, and just about every other school playing up a rung or two on the Big 10 bowl ladder.  Minnesota and Purdue appear to be utterly outclassed by Texas Tech and Oklahoma State respectively.  Given Nebraska’s performance, or lack thereof, against Wisconsin’s running game, I can only imagine Bo Pelini wakes up in the middle of the night, terrified of what Todd Gurley from Georgia is going to do to his defense.  I think Wisconsin can keep it close with Stanford, but I just don’t think they’re good enough to pull it out. Michigan will need to do something no one did this year, find a way to slow down Jadaveon Clowney.  I wouldn’t be surprised to see Sparty and Northwestern get wins, but I’m also not betting on it.  Bottom line, expect more of the same from the Big 10 in the next few days.

I think the majority of the nation would agree that if Alabama wins their remaining games (Texas A&M, West Carolina, Auburn, SEC title game), they are as much of a lock to go to Miami as any of the unbeaten teams.  Alabama survived a scare in Death Valley this past weekend, only to see the finish line in front of them.  They need to be careful though because Texas A&M and their super freshman Johnny Manziel could present a bit of a problem for a defense that was definitely worn down by games end last week.  Assuming Alabama gets past the Aggies, I would expect smooth sailing until the reach the SEC title game, most likely against Georgia.  In the end, it would seem the number-1 team in the country controls their own destiny to get to the title game.

Oregon would now seem like the most likely partner for Alabama in the title game.  Chip Kelly’s squad is an offensive juggernaut to say the least.  I’m not even sure video games set on the easiest level could match the offensive output that the Ducks are capable of getting.  Oregon literally outscored USC Saturday night in the Coliseum.  USC really didn’t play that bad of a game yet they lost by double digits and gave up 62 points.  In fact, Oregon has scored at least 42 points in every game they have played thus far (Oregon leads the nations in average points scored per game with 54.3).  The remaining games for the Ducks include @ Cal, Stanford, @ Oregon State, Pac-12 Title game.  Of the undefeated top-5 teams, Oregon has the toughest remaining schedule, but winning out will also improve their strength of schedule enough that they should be able to leapfrog Kansas State in the BCS rankings.  At this point, some wagering sites have listed Alabama as a 4-point favorite over Oregon right now.  Interesting!

Kansas State is playing some of its best football right now.  Wildcats quarterback Collin Klein, nicknamed Optimus Klein, has not only given his team a shot at the national title, but also he has given himself a chance at the Heisman Trophy.  Klein left Saturday night’s game against Oklahoma State with what is believed to be concussion-like symptoms.  Early reports out of Manhattan say he is doing well and is likely to play this weekend.  Kansas State plays a tough schedule to end the year @ TCU, @ Baylor, Texas).  The bonus / problem for Kansas State is that there is no Big 12 title game.  Many teams, especially those in conferences like the Big Ten prior to last year, used to loathe the fact that their season was over in November while other teams played either into December or had conference championship games with which to impress voters.  Kansas State will essentially be done at the end of November.  So, while the Wildcats only have to win 3 more games to finish unbeaten, they also won’t have a chance to impress voters after that either.  It would seem that unless either Oregon or Alabama loses or has a poor showing, Kansas State will be left out of the national title picture.

Finally, Notre Dame would present the longest odds of making the title game out the four top-rated undefeated teams.  The Irish have been a breath of fresh air this season as their magical run to an unbeaten season continues.  The Irish were fortunate to remain without a loss after a 14-point come-from-behind victory over Pittsburgh this past weekend.  Notre Dame took advantage of the Panthers miscues and made the plays they had to in order to come out on top.  Unfortunately for Notre Dame and their fans, the Irish’s strength of schedule, compared to the other top teams is likely to go down.  Notre Dame’s remaining schedule looks like this: @ Boston College, Wake Forest, @ USC.  Most certainly voters will be tuning in to see how the Irish are able to do out in SoCal, but they are in a no-win spot by playing Boston College and Wake Forest.  If they win by large margins, well, they were supposed to do that.  If they lose, that’s even worse.  Close games are also no good for a team that really needs to impress voters.  While Notre Dame has had a remarkable season, one that many outside the program did not think was possible this year, I just don’t see how Notre Dame makes the title game without both Oregon and Kansas State losing a game along the way.

Some other teams that have title game aspirations would be the Georgia Bulldogs and Ohio State Buckeyes.  For Georgia its clear that their only shot at getting to the title game is to win the SEC title over an undefeated Alabama team as well as having two of the three other unbeatens (Kansas State, Oregon, Notre Dame) lose a game.  While that is not impossible, it does seem like a stretch.

Ohio State presents an interesting case because they are under NCAA sanctions.  As such, they are ineligible to participate in a bowl game as well as assume a ranking in the USA Today Coaches Poll and BCS rankings.  How can Ohio State win the national title then?  Well, they are still ranked 5th in the latest AP poll and if Alabama, Oregon, Kansas State, and Notre Dame all lose prior to the bowl games, it could be possible an undefeated Ohio State team gets the nod as national champion.  It seems unlikely a split national champion would be crowned, but that is why college football is unique and exciting.

So, with the college football’s regular season winding down, the intrigue and the excitement is just heating up.  Time and time again I hear about November games are what separate the title contenders from the pretenders.  It seems like this year is just another example where that adage is proven correct.  I can’t wait to see what’s going to happen as we come down the stretch.

OK, before we take a look at the games we have on tap for week #11, let’s quickly take a look back at how my “prime-3″ games and extra points picks for week#9 fared (Sorry I missed last week!).

For Full Disclosure:

“Prime-3″ Picks from week #9 – 1-2 ATS, 0-3 SU.  On the season, my record stands at 13-14 ATS, and 14-13 SU.

Extra Points Picks (ATS) from last week – 12-10-0.  On the season, my record stands at 82-61-2.

…As always, I will try and do better this week!

“Prime-3 Games”:

In this week’s installment of “prime-3″, we will turn our attention to the number-1 team in the country and see how they fare after their emotional win last week.  We will then look at a game pitting two Pac-12 North teams, and finally we delve into a Big Ten match-up that will have Legend’s Division title implications.

We start with a look at some key match-ups involving the #15 Texas A&M Aggies and #1 Alabama Crimson Tide.  We then shift our focus out west as Pac-12 teams #11 Oregon State and #14 Stanford duke it out for 2nd place in the Pac-12′s Northern Division. Finally, we look at a Big Ten tilt that has Legend’s Division ramifications.  The Penn State Nittany Lions travel to Lincoln to do battle with the #16 Nebraska Cornhuskers.

And, without further ado, let’s get to the “Prime-3″ games!

Also, picking Oregon over USC was the easiest pick I had all year.   I said earlier that I held no hard feelings on Redd, but Kiffin has only slowed his progress, much like he does with anyone that is unfortunate enough to play for him.  Check out VBR’s article earlier this week on that subject.

Texas A&M (+16) at Alabama

If Bama loses to a once Big 12 team,  the South will cease to exist.  Luckily for them, that will not happen.  A&M has officially been my Achilles heel all year , but there is no way they are beating Bama…. Right?

Alabama 33 Texas A&M 16

West Virgina (+8) at Oklahoma State

WVU beat Baylor in the ridiculous game and people actually mentioned them as a National Championship contender.   This team is so soft and their coach is so overrated that it is starting to bother me.  Here comes their 4^th straight loss.

Oklahoma State 47 WVU 43

Oregon State (+5.5) at Stanford

Another game that is decent, but not great.  Oregon State had that great start, but Stanford and their uber-conservative coach vs. ND will prevail.

Stanford 28 Oregon State 21

Kansas State at TCU (No Line)

If Klein plays, KSU should win, but that seems very uncertain right now.  TCU just beat that overrated WVU team, but they will catch KSU sans Klein and a pumped up crowd to take down #2.

TCU 24 Kansas State 16

Minnesota (-2.5) at Illinois

Ron Johnson’s alma mater vs. Tim Beckman in an all time Idiot Bowl.  These teams are so bad that I am pretty sure anyone who watches this will become depressed and swear never to watch football again.  Beckman will punt with :04 seconds left in the game to preserve the one point loss / moral victory.

Minnesota 10 Illinois 9

Upset Special

Louisville (-3) at Syracuse

BOB’s good buddy Doug Marrone will have the Carrier Dome so loud…. well, just kidding, but they will be pumped to knock off undefeated Louisville and really upset the powers that be of the Big East.

Syracuse 24 Louisville 22

Season Record 38-21(5-5 on Upset Specials)

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EVIL BILL O’BRIEN IS IN NO WAY AFFILIATED WITH PENN STATE UNIVERSITY OR HEAD COACH BILL O’BRIEN

We’ll start with the day games:

• I once voted Florida as the number one team…this year. I loved the schedule they had played and was driving the Jeff Driskel bandwagon. I’ve since done a swan dive off of that train and Florida is probably not as good as I had thought.
• Clemson is a sneaky 8-1, whose only loss came to Florida State. Not sure why they aren’t ranked higher. That’s a BCS-caliber team.
• Texas A&M might be the third best team in the SEC and Johnny Manziel is my favorite player who doesn’t wear blue. They’ll battle Alabama next week closer than people will expect.
• Louisville is probably pretty good. And not just because they beat Temple by 30 like everybody else does. Because they beat everybody else, too. The season ender against Rutgers should be a good one.
• West Virginia is now 5-3 and they still have to play Oklahoma, Oklahoma State and Iowa State. They have the 119th ranked scoring defense. Sad to waste a talent like Geno Smith with a defense that doesn’t exist.
• I’m not going to kill Notre Dame for barely beating Pitt even though they probably didn’t deserve to win. They’re still undefeated and that’s going to come with hiccups. However, the team that showed up yesterday can’t expect to beat USC. They better get it together.
• Kansas State is really good but Klein’s injury is bad news.
• Iowa is terrible.
• USC can beat Oregon. I know…they didn’t…but if they get a rematch, and Monte Kiffin can figure out a scheme to just force a couple punts or a turnover, Oregon didn’t really stop USC either. USC has yet to play their best football. Plus, all the pressure will be on Oregon.
• Zach Mettenberg earned respect last night. He played his best game against the best competition they’ll see.
• Kudos to Bama for being able to win that kind of game. I don’t want to pile on McCarron but he has beat this team…in the National Championship. Why was he crying last night?
• Oregon State is going to beat up somebody in a non-BCS bowl. They’re a heckuva team.
• Yesterday’s 5 team parlay winner: Akron +22, Miami (OH) +4, Georgia Tech -8, Texas A&M -3, Oregon State -6.

For all of the latest on the Penn State Nittany Lions, follow VBR Lead Editor Tim Tolley on Twitter.

Cincinnati 31 at Louisville (-4) 34 (OT)

Matt – Louisville (L)

Tim – Louisville (L)

Craig – Louisville (L)

Corey – Cincinnati (W)

Mississippi State 7 at Alabama (-23.5) 38

Matt – Alabama (W)

Tim – Alabama (W)

Craig – Mississippi State (L)

Corey – Mississippi State (L)

Florida (-6.5)  9 vs. Georgia 17

Matt – Georgia (W)

Tim – Florida (L)

Craig – Florida (L)

Corey – Florida (L)

Notre Dame 30 at Oklahoma (-10.5) 13

Matt – Oklahoma (L)

Tim – Oklahoma (L)

Craig – Oklahoma (L)

Corey – Notre Dame (W)

Michigan 9 at Nebraska (-2.5) 23

Matt – Michigan (L)

Tim – Michigan (L)

Craig – Michigan (L)

Corey – Nebraska (W)

A new week and a generally uneventful week as usual.   Away we go to a 6-0.

Alabama (-7) at LSU

These teams are so great blah blah blah. These teams are good, but they play the worst football games.   I am sure if I had a rooting interest, I would think otherwise, but I don’t.  LSU will give Bama it’s 1^st real test, but that being said, this will be a smackdown. Not sure if LSU will resort to Bolden to throw for a TD since he does have some experience doing so vs. Bama. I can see Alabama struggling for a ½, but they will pull away in the end.

Alabama 24 LSU 7

Oklahoma State (+7) at Kansas State

Bill Snyder is a magician with his ability to coach.  If Mike Gundy was a man at 40, what does that make Snyder at 73? KSU big.

Kansas State 47 Oklahoma State 21

Texas A&M (-2.5) vs. Mississippi State

Texas A&M has ruined a lot of Evil Bill’s picks so far this year so now it is time for them to pay.  Mullen and his Penn State loving dad will prevail vs. this overrated A&M team.

MSU 31 Texas A&M 15

Texas (+2.5) vs. Texas Tech

How Texas is ranked is beyond me.  That is soon to change and the heat on Mack Brown will intensify with a bad defensive effort combed with a poor offensive showing.

Texas Tech 33 Texas 12

Oregon (-6) at USC

Kiffin in a game that he shouldn’t win, will not let me down.  I just hope he’s embarrassed and then eventually gets fired and disappears from my TV forever.

Oregon 53 USC 32

Upset Special

Clemson (-14) at Duke

I really have no feel this week so I am going big.

Duke 27 Clemson 26

Season Record 35-18 (5-4 on Upset Specials)

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Evil Bill O’Brien is in no way associated with Penn State University or head coach Bill O’Brien.

Here are last week’s results:

Oregon 43 (-9) at Arizona State 21

Matt – Oregon (W)

Tim – Oregon (W)

Craig – Oregon (W)

Corey – Arizona State (L)

Michigan State 10 at Michigan 12 (-10)

Matt – Michigan State (W)

Tim – Michigan State (W)

Craig – Michigan State (W)

Corey – Michigan (L)

Kansas State 55 at West Virginia 14 (-3)

Matt – Kansas State (W)

Tim – West Virginia (L)

Craig – West Virginia (L)

Corey – Kansas State (W)

South Carolina 11 at Florida 44 (-3)

Matt – Florida (W)

Tim – South Carolina (L)

Craig – Florida (W)

Corey – Florida (W)

LSU 24 (-3.5) at Texas A&M 19

Matt – LSU (W)

Tim – LSU (W)

Craig – LSU (W)

Corey – LSU (W)

Penn State has a big game this week, but we found 5 more to take a shot at.  Point spreads are as of Monday evening.

With four weeks in the books, I wanted to take a long, hard look at the college landscape because we know a little more about these teams than we did in the preseason. No more living off of expectations (Michigan) or that one win that one time against Nebraska (UCLA). It’s show time!

1. Alabama – Easy.
2. Oregon – Arizona probably isn’t as good as people once thought, but it’s evident that this Oregon team has a strong defense to go with their regular, explosive offense.
3. Florida State – FSU has been hyped for a few years, this could finally be the one. Big win over Clemson.
4. LSU - I’m not sure what the win over Washington means and they need to beat teams like Auburn more convincingly. This is not the 2011 Tigers. I feel out on a limb here.
5. Florida –  Wins at Texas A&M and Tennessee followed by a shutout against some basketball school have me impressed. So does Jeff Driskel
6. Georgia – Four SEC teams in the top 6. Ugh.
7. Notre Dame – Wins over Michigan State, Michigan and Purdue make Notre Dame the best team that should be in the Big Ten.
8. West Virginia – I’m eager to see them play a quality opponent, but Geno Smith looks like a legitimate Heisman contender.
9. Kansas State – It doesn’t always look pretty, but that win in Norman was big.
10. South Carolina –  Marcus Lattimore is back and Connor Shaw is figuring it out. I really like USCe.
11. Stanford – They have a real chance to climb this poll in the near future. Early win over USC was enormous.
12. USC –  I still think the Trojans are one of the two most talented teams in the country, but they’re not playing like it.
13. Texas – Defense looks borderline great…but against nobody.
14. TCU –  Their ranking won’t really matter until November when the schedule gets brutal.
15. Oklahoma – Big Game Bob strikes again, to the dismay of Sooner fans.
16. Oregon State – Only two games played, but wins over Wisconsin and at UCLA are quality.
17. Rutgers – Three road wins in this young season.
18. Ohio State – Really eager to see Buckeyes this week. Braxton has been amazing. Nothing else has been.
19. Clemson – Clemson is really good and had a halftime lead over Florida State. They’ll bounce back.
20. Louisville – Ummm peer pressure? Can’t remember what I was thinking here.
21. Baylor – This is going to sound like a joke, but I like that win at ULM. Now if they just don’t get blown out by WVU this weekend…
22. Tennessee – They had a little trouble against Akron and head to Georgia this week. Don’t get used to them being here.
23. Northwestern – They beat 3 AQ teams in the first three weeks and now get Indiana…I smell 5-0!
24. Ohio – The Bobcats of Athens are undefeated with wins at Marshall and at Penn State.
25. Purdue – I like them more than this and they deserve better. Would like to swap Purdue and LVille if I could do it again.

There you have it! Full disclosure and a little glimpse into the madness. Don’t expect this every week. I hate confrontation.

For all of the latest on the Penn State Nittany Lions, follow VBR Lead Editor Tim Tolley on Twitter.

Let me say, this is difficult to do this early in the season before teams have played more than one (in some cases, zero) meaningful games. Michigan is probably a top 15 team, talent-wise, but they’re 1-1 and held on to beat Air Force at home. How do you rank that? Florida State is a convincing 2-0, but have played two dismal opponents. How good are they? Bring on conference play!

TIM

1. Alabama
2. USC
3. LSU
4. Oklahoma
5. Oregon
6. Florida State
7. South Carolina
8. Georgia
9. Michigan State
10. Texas
11. West Virginia
12. Va Tech
13. Clemson
14. Kansas State
15. Florida
16. Michigan
17. Notre Dame
18. Ohio State
19. UCLA
20. TCU
21. Stanford
22. Louisville
23. Oregon State
24. Arkansas
25. Ohio

MATT

View last week’s polls HERE!

Sep 1, 2012; Arlington, TX, USA; Alabama Crimson Tide running back T J Yeldon breaks a tackle during the fourth quarter of the game against the Michigan Wolverines at Cowboys Stadium. Alabama beat Michigan 41-14. Mandatory Credit: Tim Heitman-US PRESSWIRE

Alabama Is Good.  Really Good.

A lot of the focus has gone on Michigan in the aftermath of the opening game blowout in Dallas.  Yes, Michigan struggled, and they were in way over their heads against the defending national champs.  But, credit an Alabama team that appears to have reloaded yet again.  T.J. Yeldon, Jalston Fowler, and Eddie Lacy accounted for 209 yards on the ground and 2 touchdowns.  Dee Millner moved from nickleback to starting CB and was dominant on Roy Roundtree all night, including 1 interception.  The Tide’s front 7 was all over the place and never let Denard Robinson get anything going on the ground, turning him into a passing quarterback.  It’s just one game, and we still don’t know just how good this Michigan team is, but it would appear that Alabama is not going to miss a beat in their bid to win a third title in four years.

Each week I will preview 3-4 “high profile” games for the upcoming weekend.  I will briefly explain what I will be watching from both sides during the game, an intangible or two, and who I think will win the game.  Hopefully this will generate a bit of discussion.

Week #1 CFB Preview:

Game #1: ^#24 Boise St. at ^#13 Michigan State (Aug. 31)

photo by Mark J. Rebilas-US PRESSWIRE

The Skinny: What a good early game the college football gods have given us!  This game could easily become an “Instant Classic”!  No more is this a David vs. Goliath match-up.  Boise St. has cemented its national reputation with top-10 finishes each of the past 3 seasons.  Both teams are coming off impressive bowl victories, but they have lost key members of their 2011 squads.  Which team will be able to find the right complement of players to offset key losses?  The answer will go along way in determining who will win this game.

What to Watch For [W2W4] (Michigan State):  Michigan State returns some of the Big Ten’s best players on defense.  In fact, they return 8 starters from a team that ranked 6th nationally in total defense.  The defense is led by All-Big Ten candidate DE William Gholston, who could very well be on his way to the Ted Hendricks Award (given to the top DE in CFB) in 2012.  The defense will have to be stout to give the young offense a chance to go through some early growing pains.

W2W4 (Boise State):  Boise State will feature 4 returning starters on an offensive line that allowed a nation-low 8 sacks last season, and allowed Kellen Moore and company to put up the 5th most points per game in college football (44.2 ppg).  The cohesiveness the line brings to each game will be a big help to junior QB and first-year starter Joe Southwick who has only thrown for 400 yards and 2 touchdowns in his career.  Also returning to help take the pressure off of Southwick is senior RB DJ Harper.  Now the featured back, Harper can look to improve on last season’s campaign where he rushed for 557 yards and scored 9 TD’s.

Game Intangible:  Weather could certainly be a factor in this game.  Late August in East Lansing can be racked with heat and/or humidity, and the players could be sapped of energy (think back to TCU vs Baylor last season) late in the ballgame.  Which team has used the preseason to help prepare them for the rigors of late August / early September games?

US Presswire

Prediction: Look for Michigan State and Le’Veon Bell to run the ball between the tackles and wear down the Broncos interior line.  This should give first-year starter Andrew Maxwell enough time and comfort to get the ball down the field to Tennessee transfer DeAnthony Arnett and converted corner back Tony Lippett.  The Broncos should be able to keep the game close, but as the fourth quarter arrives, expect the Spartans to dominate on the ground and time of possession forcing Boise St into throwing the ball more often then they would like.  This will lead Southwick to throw a few INT’s and allow Michigan St. to pull away late.  Sorry Broncos fans, I don’t see the underdogs pulling off the upset in this one!

Score:

Michigan St (-8) – 27

Boise State – 13

 Next: Clemson at Auburn 

The Predictalator is the most advanced sports forecasting software available today. The technology has the ability to account for all of the statistical interactions of the players (playing or not playing/injured), coaches, officials, fans (homefield advantage) and weather in each game. The Predictalator plays every game 50,000 times before it’s actually played. This provides PredictionMachine.com the ability to assign probabilities to the likelihood of just about any outcome occurring in any event as well as to project individual statistics and more including straight-up, against-the-spread and over/under pick percentages for each game.

So how does the Predictalator see Penn State’s 2012 season going? On average, Penn State wins 5.9 games and loses 6.1. That’s just a shade better than the 5.5 Over/Under win total floating around from Vegas.

PM breaks down every conference, going as far as predicting that Alabama will beat USC in the national championship, 56.5 percent of the 50,000 games, by an average score of 26.5-20.2

In the Big Ten, they have both Michigan and Ohio state winning 9.3 games, but with OSU ineligible for post season play, they predict Michigan to beat an 8.6 win Wisconsin team before losing to Oregon in the Rose Bowl, by a score of 41-33.

What does this mean? Well, the games still have to be played, but take a look at the stats:

Since launching in January 2010, this remarkable technology is over 60% against-the-spread with football Locks of the Week, over 60% ATS with Paul’s Picks in the NFL, college football and the NCAA Tournament, over 57% with “normal” or better picks all-time in the NFL, NBA and MLB combined and over 53% with all playable picks. And finally, with a perfect 2011 postseason, the Predictalator is now 20-3 against-the-spread in NFL playoff games. In 2011, college football “normal” or better O/U win total picks went 11-6 (65% O/U), while all ‘normal” or better O/U for games during the season went 74-48 (61% O/U).

Be sure to check back next week when the VBR staff makes our own predictions on the season, without the help of some fancy-smancy computer!

For all of the latest on the Penn State Nittany Lions, follow VBR Lead Editor Tim Tolley on Twitter.

For the most part about 90% of the Penn State fanbase is expecting the Lions to go into Tuscaloosa and lose to Alabama. It isn’t entirely unreasonable. A new quarterback playing on the road against the defending national champs and a Heisman winner doesn’t exactly make you feel great about things. On the surface a casual fan sees Alabama as the same team they saw beat Texas, a powerful team on both sides of the ball with few flaws.

This however isn’t entirely the case, and while Penn State is facing a steeper uphill battle, the Tide aren’t going to have it as easy as many fans are predicting. Lets go inside the numbers and look at what could be a very competitive game. (more…)

“That’s probably something the athletic director thinks about in the back of his mind from time to time.”

-Penn State President Graham Spanier

If you couldn’t tell by the title, that “something” mentioned in the quote by magician/Penn State president Graham Spanier is about the end of the coaching career of the one and only Joe Paterno. This is something that most Penn State fans have thought about as well and something that most have strong opinions about (including the person writing this right now). The quote was part of a 3-minute video that I found while sitting on my computer in this 100 degree heat in which Spanier discusses what may or may not happen when Joepa is done coaching. It reminded me of a conversation I had with my grandpa a few days ago about this very subject.

Most people (including my grandpa) assume that once Joe leaves, Penn State will hire or promote from within the program. Graham Spanier does nothing to refute this thought by saying in the interview:

We’re not going to pay somebody 4 or 5 million dollars. I’m sorry. I don’t care who it is. It’s just not going to go over well at Penn State….There are, I assure you, a lot of people who would be thrilled, a lot of very talented people, who would be thrilled to be the head coach in any sport at Penn State.

In fact that mirrors exactly something my grandpa said and the sediment that most seem to think will drive an in-program promotion: money. Penn State will not be willing to pay Nick Saban type money to the next head coach at Penn State. In my opinion and in the opinion of most others that thinking would point towards the promotion of either Tom Bradley or Galen Hall. Hall has done a great job with the offense and running backs over the past 17 years and Bradley has done a spectacular job with the defense over the past 11 years he has been in charge of it.

More about Joepa after the jump!

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