In the Sugar Bowl, you have a team in Louisville led by the strong-armed Teddy Bridgewater who can throw the ball all around the joint and running back Jeremy Wright up against a team in Florida that possesses one of the best defenses in the nation to go along with dual-threat quarterback Jeff Driskel and hard-nosed running back Mike Gillislee.

While the possibility exists that this game could turn into a shootout, the more realistic scenario involves a close-to-the-vest contest where the defenses dominate.  On the year, Florida ranks 3rd nationally in giving up the fewest points per game at 12.9 per game while Louisville ranks 36th only giving up 23.8 points per game.  No matter how the game turns out, the Sugar Bowl will feature two contrasting styles of offense.  Louisville favors a spread-you-out throw it down the field style of game while Florida prefers to pound the ball on the ground.  Louisville comes into the contest ranking as the 23rd best passing team averaging nearly 300 yards per game through the air, while Florida comes into the game ranking 34th nationally in rushing yards per game at 194.1 yards.  In the end, it should be an exciting game that comes down to the fourth quarter

Sugar Bowl

Louisville is a clear underdog in the Sugar Bowl, but the Cardinals can already claim one major victory over an SEC team this postseason.

Charlie Strong’s decision to stay with the school also sets up an intriguing reunion Wednesday in New Orleans.

The former Florida defensive coordinator leads No. 22 Louisville against the fourth-ranked Gators, who are looking for their fifth straight win in a BCS bowl.

Strong’s success at Louisville (10-2) made him one of the hot names in this year’s coaching carousel, but he turned down an offer from Tennessee to stay with the Cardinals, who are moving from the Big East to the ACC in 2014.

Strong helped Florida (11-1) remain among the nation’s best programs in recent years. He’s had four different stints on the Gators’ staff, most significantly running their defense from 2003-09 – a stretch that included a pair of BCS titles.

Louisville took a circuitous path to this game, starting 9-0 before dropping back-to-back contests to Syracuse and Connecticut, but they recovered to their final game to earn a share of the Big East title and the conference’s BCS bid.

A month off could get Big East offensive player of the year Teddy Bridgewater back to full health. The sophomore quarterback completed 69.0 percent of his passes for 3452 yards and 25 touchdowns, but he didn’t start and couldn’t take snaps under center against Rutgers due to a broken wrist and a sore ankle.

That didn’t stop the Florida native from coming off the bench and going 20 of 28 for 263 yards and a pair of TDs to rally the Cardinals.

The Gators won both previous meetings with Louisville in 1980 and 1992, both in Gainesville.

How They Got Here

Lousiville Cardinals

September 8, 2012; Louisville, KY USA; Louisville Cardinals cheerleaders perform during the second half of play against the Missouri State Bears at Papa John

The Louisville Cardinals played into the second week of November with the idea that they could be a national title contender.  They were undefeated and attained a BCS rank of #9.  In those first nine wins, Lousiville beat the likes of Kentucky, North Carolina, Pittsburgh, South Florida, Cincinnati, and Temple.  After their win at Temple, many thought that the Cardinals had smooth sailing to the end of the year.  That is, until week 10 when Louisville went to Syracuse to take on the pesky Orange.  Syracuse pushed all of the right buttons that day as they man-handled the Cardinals 45-26.  The hangover lasted another week as Lousiville dropped their next contest to Connecticut 23-20 in 3OT.

To earn their BCS trip, Louisville had to defeat Rutgers in the final week of the season.  After once seemingly having the Big East wrapped up, the Cardinals needed one more gutsy effort.  They got that effort as they went to Piscataway, NJ and defeated Rutgers by the score of 20-17.

They technically tied for the league title with Cincinnati and Rutgers, all going 5-2 in the confernce, but because Louisville was the highest ranked team in the BCS, they earned the automatic invite to the Sugar Bowl.  They couldn’t be prouder to accept the invitation.  Lousiville knows that they have something to prove.  After losing two of their last three games, many believed that Louisville did not belong in a BCS game and would be overmatched against any team they would face.  Pitting them against Florida gives them one final opportunity to prove that they do indeed belong with the upper tier of teams.

Florida Gators

Sep 8, 2012; College Station, TX, USA; Florida Gators cheerleader performs against the Texas A

The Florida Gators were a team that many football pundits believed was at least another year away from contending.  Head coach Will Muschamp though beleived in his team and challenged them to rise to the level he knew they were capable of.  After defeating Ohio State in last year’s Gator Bowl, preparation were made in earnest to “go for it” in 2012.

The Gators started the year facing Bowling Green.  It was a lackluster game, but eventually Florida was able to pull through.  Their second game placed the Gators at Klye Field in College Station, Texas to faceoff with the Texas A&M Aggies in their first-ever SEC game.  At the time, no one knew how special Johnny Manziel would be for the Aggies, but at halftime, the Gators made adjustments in their defensive scheme and were able to contain him and the rest of the Aggies.  as a result, Florida won 20-17.  The following week, Florida continued their superlative play by going on the road to Knoxville, TN and defeated then-#23 Tennessee Volunteers.

Florida would go on to win four more games after that including showdowns with top-10 teams the LSU Tigers (14-6) and the South Carolina Gamecocks (44-11).  After their win over South Carolina, Florida was sitting 7-0, 6-0 in the SEC East and were at #2 in the polls.  Then came the annual rivalry with Georgia played in Jacksonville, FL.  Georgia came ot with a chip on their shoulder and took it to the Gators, defeating them by a score of 17-9.  That would be the one and only loss Florida would suffer during the regular season.  They had other close games including one against Sun Belt member UL-Lafayette that took a last minute TD and special teams TD to avoid the upset.  They also defeated the arch rival Florida State to close out the regular season.

Because Florida was shut out of the SEC title game, as Georgia represented the SEC East, the Gators had to await their fate on Sunday Dec. 2nd when the BCS matchups would be announced.  Florida was ranked #3 and were invited to play in the Sugar Bowl.  The Gators hope to use this game to springboard them into a 2013 season that the Gainesville-hopeful believe will turn into a national title run.

Key Matchups

The Florida Running Game (Mike Gillislee, Trey Burton, and Jeff Driskel) vs. The Lousiville Run Defense

As was mentioned earlier, Florida ranks 34th nationally in rushing yards per game.  They use a read-option style of offense led by quarterback Jeff Driskel.  The primary running back is Mike Gillislee and the Wildcat back is Trey Burton.  Why this matchup could be so appealing  is because it is the biggest mis-match of the game.  While Florida is extremely adept at runnning the ball, Lousivlle gave up the second most rushing yards to opposing teams in the Big East (151.08 ypg).  If Florida is successful running the ball, they can stick with their strength, shorten the game by keeping the clock moving, and leave Teddy Bridgeater and the Cardinals offense on the bench.

Nov 24, 2012; Tallahassee, FL, USA; Florida Gators running back Trey Burton (8) carries the ball against the Florida State Seminoles during the second half at Doak Campbell Stadium. The Gators won 37-26. Mandatory Credit: Kevin Liles-USA TODAY Sports

On the year, senior Mike Gillislee was able to rush for over 1100 yards and scoring 10 times.  He also added 15 receptions for nearly 150 yards and 1 score.  As a read-option quarterback, Jeff Driskel ran the ball 108 times for 404 yards, and he punched it four times.  Try Burton ran the Wildcat formation for the Gators.  The junior ran for 166 yards and 2 scores, but his speed forced defenders to respect his ability.  And, just to keep opposing defense honest, Burton threw the ball 4 times with 3 completions.

If you’re Louisville, and you nearly have the worst rush defense in the Big East, how are you going to stop one of the best rushing offense in the country.  The answer is to stack the line of scrimmage; put 8 or 9 guys in the box and sell out to stop the run.  Look for not only Louisville’s linebackers to move close to the line of scrimmage, but also in certain packages, thehir defensive backs.  Linebacker Preston Brown was the leading tackler for the Cardinals, but defensive back, Calvin Pryor was right behind him.  Pryor was one tackle shy of the Big East lead for tackles by defensive backs in the Big East.  Also, keepy our eye on Hakeem Smith in the secondary as well.  If Louisville can overload the line of scrimmage and slow down the Gators rushing attack it will force the Gators and Driskel to go to the air.  Florida has one of the lowest passing yards per game averages in college football while Louisville had the best pass defense in the Big East.

The tide and momentum of this game will hinge on which team is able to stop the other.  If Florida can be successful with their bread-and-butter, the running game, they will likely be able to wear down Louisville by the second half and the game could get out of hand.  On the other side, if Louisville is successful in slowing down the Florida running game and forces the Gators to the air where Louisville is one of the better teams in the Big East, they could potentially pull the upset.

Teddy Bridgewater vs Florida Secondary

Nov 29, 2012; Piscataway, NJ, USA; Louisville Cardinals quarterback Teddy Bridgewater (5) warms up prior to the game against the Rutgers Scarlet Knights at High Point Solutions Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jim O

Will Muschamp’s Florida defense, though, could provide a challenge unlike anything Bridgewater has seen. Led by first-team All-America safety Matt Elam, the Gators rank third nationally in points allowed (12.9 per game), and they’ve given upjust five passing touchdowns while making 19 interceptions.

Their opponents completed 51.2 percent of their passes for just 186.0 yards per game. Florida held eventual Heisman Trophy winner Johnny Manziel to a season-low 173 passing yards in beating Texas A&M in September.

Prediction

Look for Florida to come out of the gates a little sluggish, not because they won’t be motivated to play in the game, rather its because that is their MO during the year.  Sometimes that sluggishness has nearly cost them the game (i.e. Missouri or UL-Lafayette).

For Louisville, they will be fired up and looking to prove that they belong with the best in the country.  The game will likely be placed squarely on the shoulders of RB Jeremy Wright and QB Teddy Bridgewater.

I see this game being close (within 1 score) at the half.  At the half, the Florida defensive staff will make some adjustments that will confuse Bridgeater and force him into a pivotal interception.  Florida will menthodically move the ball down the field chewing up clock and punch it into the end zone.  Florida will then force a 3-and-out and once again eat up time by driving down the field for another score.

Bridgewater will valiantly try to rally the troops but Florida’s superior defense will be too much for him and the rest of the Cardinals to overcome.  The Gators will run out the clock and win the game leaving them as either the #2 or #3 team in the country.

Louisville – 13

Florida – 27

Jan. 1, 2013; Miami, FL, USA; A Orange Bowl logo is seen before a game between the Northern Illinois Huskies and the Florida State Seminoles at Sun Life Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Steve Mitchell-USA TODAY Sports

Welcome back folks!  Have you had your fill of college football today?  Well, lets put a cherry on top of the bowl sundae by previewing the nightcap, the Discover Orange Bowl.  This game pits what may be the ultimate David vs Goliath match-up of any of the bowls – MAC champions Northern Illinois Huskies vs ACC champs the Florida State Seminoles.  While many suggest that NIU playing in a bowl game seems farcical and perhaps a slap in the face to other BCS teams like Oklahoma, recent history suggest otherwise.  Since the inception of the BCS bowls, non-AQ teams have participated in six previous BCS Bowls and won five times.  Here are the previous BCS bowls that included no-AQ teams and their results:

• 2005 Fiesta Bowl – UTAH (MWC) defeats Pittsburgh (Big East) 35-7

• 2007 Fiesta Bowl – Boise St (WAC) defeats Oklahoma (Big 12) 43-42 OT

• 2008 Sugar Bowl – Hawaii (WAC) lost to Georgia (SEC) 41-10

• 2009 Sugar Bowl – Utah (MWC) defeats Alabama (SEC) 31-17

• 2010 Fiesta Bowl – Boise St (WAC) defeats TCU (MWC) 17-10

• 2011 Rose Bowl – TCU (MWC) defeats Wisconsin (Big Ten) 21-19

Looking at that list, many people felt that those non-AQ teams did not belong on the same field with their brethren only to see that that wasn’t true.  Could tonight’s Orange Bowl be another chapter in the epic legacy of the non-AQ team in a BCS Bowl?

Orange Bowl

Nov 19, 2011; Tallahassee, FL, USA; A Florida State Seminoles cheerleader in the first quarter of their football game against the Virginia Cavaliers at Doak Campbell Stadium. Virginia won 14-13. Mandatory Credit: Phil Sears-USA TODAY Sports

A year after defeating Notre Dame in the Champs Sports Bowl, many pegged Florida State as team to watch to play for the national title.  They were well on their way until they stumbled against NC State.  While they aren’t playing for the title, they did win the ACC Conference Title and are playing in a BCS bowl.  If you are person looking for positives, then the Seminoles are getting better each year and perhaps the 2013 football season will be the year they will be in the title game.  Until then they must settle for playing the MAC champion Northern Illinois Huskies, BCS crashers for this year.

Believe it or not, the Northern Illinois Huskies are tied with Ohio State for the longest current winning streak in the country – 12 games.  It will be interesting to see if NIU an extend that streak to 13 games.  If they can, it will mark one of the most improbable season’s in quite some time!  To win the Orange Bowl, NIU is going to have to do so without the man that lead them all the way to the MAC title and a #15 BCS ranking – Dave Doeren.  Doeren accepted the head coaching position at North Carolina State and will not be on the sidelines for the Huskies tonight.  Instead, NIU will be lead by Rod Carey who has also been installed as their permanent head coach.

While the head coaching position at NIU has garnered some attention, Florida State is also going through some coaching transitions.  Defensive coordinator Mark Stoops accepted the head coaching position at Kentucky.  While he was trying to wear both hats, he found that he was unable to do so.  That leaves DEs coach D.J. Eliot and Sal Sunseri as left in charge of running the defense for tonight’s game.  How will the change in coordinators affect the Seminole defense and their preparation for NIU’s Jordan Lynch, only time will tell!

Las Vegas has installed Florida State as two touchdown favorites, but those that have followed college football closely know that the game could be much closer than that.  Both teams have a lot to play for, and getting up to play in this game should not be a problem for either team.

How They Got Here

Northern Illinois

The year in Dekalb, IL got off to an inauspicious start as the Huskies lost a tight game to Iowa 18-17.  When many felt like the Huskies played the Hawkeyes very well, no one thought it was or could be a harbinger of things to come.  After the extremely close loss to Iowa, Northern Illinois would regroup and go on to win all of their remaining games, including the MAC title.  Among those 12-consecutive victories were wins over Kansas, Army, Central Michigan, Ball State.  In the MAC title game against #24 Kent State, NIU needed double OT to come away with the win.  After the exciting MAC championship, they had to wait to see what their fate would be.  When the BCS ranking were announced on Dec. 2, NIU was in the top-15 and were selected for the Discover Orange Bowl.

Nov 30, 2012; Detroit, MI, USA; Northern Illinois players celebrates after defeating Kent State Golden Flashes 44-37 in double overtime to win the 2012 MAC Championship at Ford Field. Mandatory Credit: Andrew Weber-USA TODAY Sports

Now the Huskies face their biggest challenge of the year as they face the #2-rated defense in all of college football.  Not to sell Northern Illinois short, they have the 9th best rushing offense in the country averaging over 250 yards per game and have scored over 40 points per game, 8th in the FBS.  And, while many will talk about the Seminoles defense, and for good reason, the Huskies also boast a defense that can compete with anyone.  On the year, the Huskies D has averaged giving up only 19 points per game, good for 18th nationally.  Will Jordan Lynch and the Huskies, after making some strong statements in the press, be able to make good on their promise to shock the world?  It will be interesting to watch.

Florida State

The Seminoles entered the 2012 campaign with their sights set on playing for the national title, and for the first five games, they looked like a team that very well may play for the title.  As they raced out to a 5-0 mark, the Seminoles made a statement with their 49-37 over #10 Clemson.  The Tigers were loaded with speed and talent, players like DeAndre Hopkins, Andre Ellington, and Tajh Boyd, but the Seminoles ultimately wore them down late in the third quarter and into the fourth for the win.

Perhaps the win took something out of Florida State as they seemed to go flat in their next game at North Carolina State.  A late TD drive by the Wolfpack saddled the Seminoles with a 17-16 defeat, their first of the year.  Many pundits then wrote off the Seminoles as just another team that should contend but were merely pretenders.  Well, Florida State picked themselves up off of the mat, and went on to win their next five consecutive games including wins over Virginia Tech, Miami, and Duke.

As the Seminoles entered the final week of the regular season, only a grudge match against their long-time rival Florida Gators stood in the way of the Seminoles making a case as being a team that should play for the title.  In the end, the #4 Gators proved to be too much for Florida State and they came up short, losing 37-26.  The following week, avoiding a letdown, the Seminoles took care of business in the ACC title game by defeating Georgia Tech to earn a BCS bowl berth in the Orange Bowl.

Florida State brings the 12th-leading scoring offense into the game, averaging 39.9 points per game, and they boast the nation’s #2 defense as well.  They are looking to show NIU that although they had a good season, they haven’t played a team quite the caliber of Florida State.  I suspect that Florida State will come out fired up, ready to prove that they belong in the same conversation with the Alabama’s and the Notre Dame’s of the country.

Dec 1, 2012; Waco, TX, USA; Oklahoma State Cowboys cheerleaders poser for a photo during the second half against the Baylor Bears at Floyd Casey Stadium. The Bears defeated the Cowboys 41-34. Mandatory Credit: Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports

Happy New Year everyone!! If you are reading this, you made it over the football cliff!  On New Year’s Day we have a plethora of football games with most involving Big Ten Teams.

To start the day, I will be taking a look at the Heart of Dallas Bowl.  Penn State fans may remember last year this bowl was called the TicketCity Bowl.  This year Purdue will be taking on Oklahoma State.  At the same time, Northwestern will be taking on the Mississippi State Bulldogs out of the SEC. Check out Matt de Bear’s Big Ten preview of the Outback Bowl and the Capitol One Bowl and contributing writer Eric Sion’s Rose Bowl preview.

So, sit back, relax, get the remote control and the popcorn ready, and have yourself a little bit of sauerkraut and hot dogs while we here at VBR provide you with a little college football preview for the New Year’s Day Bowl games.

Gator Bowl

TEAMS:  Northwestern (9-3, 5-3 Big Ten Conference) vs. Mississippi State (8-4, 4-4 Southeastern Conference)

TIME:  January 1st, 12:00 p.m. EST

TV:  ESPN2

LAS VEGAS LINES:  Northwestern -2; Over/Under 54 points

Jan 12, 2012; Starkville, MS, USA; Mississippi State Bulldogs cheerleader Meagan McNeil entertains the crowd during a break during the game against the Tennessee Volunteers at the Humphrey Coliseum. Mississippi State Bulldogs defeated Tennessee Volunteers 62-58. Mandatory Credit: Spruce Derden-USA TODAY Sports

The Gator Bowl will pit Northwestern out of the Big Ten against Mississippi State from the SEC.  Many people around the country have their eye on this game to see how the middle of the Big Ten is able to match up with the middle of the SEC.  This game features two teams that are fairly evenly matched.  In fact, both teams are in the top-11 nationally in turnover margin.  Mississippi State was +17 in the turnover ratio while Northwestern was +13 in the category.  Since both teams protect the ball and don’t turn it over, it will be imperative for the team that is able to generate a turnover to do something with it.

On the year, Mississippi State can be described as a tale of two halves!  In the first part of the year – the first seven games – the Bulldogs were unbeaten having beaten teams like Auburn, and Tennessee.  The remainder of the season the Bulldogs 1-4 as they hit the meat of their schedule.  They lost to Alabama, Texas A&M, LSU, and their year-end rival Ole Miss in the Egg Bowl.  Mississippi State is looking for their first win since Nov 17th when they defeated Arkansas 45-14.

The Bulldogs have lost much of the momentum that they built up early in the season, and it will be up to head coach Dan Mullen to help get it back.  A win over a Northwestern aquad that was in an out of the top-25 for much of the year would be a nice way to cap off the year and propel them into 2013.

The Wildcats of Northwestern are a few fourth quarter collapses away from playing not only in the Big Ten title game, but also possibly the Rose Bowl.  They lost 4th quarter leads at Penn State, against Nebraska, and at Michigan.  Northwestern started the year with impressive wins at Syracuse and at home against Vanderbilt.  They continued their success with wins over Boston College, South Dakota, and Indiana to start the Big Ten slate.  Then came their first of three blown fourth quarter leads.  This one came at the hands of Penn State after the Wildcats had just entered the top-25.  Northwestern would then trade wins and losses for the next four weeks before closing out the 2012 campaign with back-to-back wins over Michigan State and Illinois.  A bowl victory over Mississippi State would give the mid-Big Ten a little bragging rights over the mid-SEC.

Jan 29, 2011; Evanston, IL, USA; A Northwestern Wildcats cheerleader performs during the second half against the Ohio State Buckeyes at Welsh-Ryan Arena. OSU won 58-57. Mandatory Credit: Tommy Giglio-USA TODAY Sports

For Northwestern and head coach Pat Fitzgerald, the Wildcats  are looking for a 10th win for the first time since the 1995 season when they went to the Rose Bowl.  The Wildcats have some explosive players like QB/WR Kain Colter and RB Venric Mark.  However, the offense is not very balanced.  The Wildcats are predominantly run-heavy and rank near the bottom of the FBS in passing yards.  They will need to count on both aspects of their offensive game if they are going to beat Mississippi State.

PLAYERS TO WATCH

Oct 27, 2012; Little Rock, AR, USA; Ole Miss Rebels quarterback Bo Wallace (14) hands off to running back Jeff Scott (3) during the game against the Arkansas Razorbacks at War Memorial Stadium. Mississippi defeated Arkansas 30-27. Mandatory Credit: Nelson Chenault-USA TODAY Sports

Mississippi State’s junior quarterback Tyler Russell is one of the most prolific passers in the SEC.  He was 6th in the conference in passing yards with nearly 233 yards per game for a total of 2791 yards.  His 22 TDs were good for 5th in the SEC.  To put it mildly, Russell is a main cog in the Bulldogs offense.  While not generally thought of as an elite SEC quarterback, Russell did produce a  very solid season and his statistics back that up.  As a whole, the Bulldogs have a passing offense that ranks 6th in the SEC at nearly 250 yards per game.  In Russell’s last three game he has thrown for at least 250 yards and a combined 6 TDs and only 3 INTs.

He is looking for another stellar performance as he goes up against a Northwestern defense that ranks last in the Big Ten in passing defense giving up almost 263 yards per game.  I will not be surprised to see Mississippi St put the ball in the air at least 30-35 times in the game.  Northwestern has been very porous against the pass, and Dan Mullen’s team will likely look to take advantage of that fact.

When Russell does drop back to pass he will be looking for one of the biggest receiving threats in the SEC, Chad Bumphis.  The senior receiver led all of the SEC with 12 TD receptions.  Look for Mississippi St to get him involved early in this contest.  Chris Smith is another receiver that Russell likes to target.  Smith was second on the team in receptions (45) and receiving yards (540).  When the Bulldogs enter the red zone, they also like to target their 6-1 TE Marcus Green.  Green hauled in 19 passes for 215 yards, but of those 19 pass receptions, 6 of them went for scores.

On the ground, the Bulldogs will try to get LaDarius Perkins going.  The junior RB sits just 60 yards shy of reaching 1000 yards for the first time in his collegiate career.  In his last 4 contests, Perkins has been held below 100 yards rushing and has not found the end zone.  The ability of Mississippi St to run the ball will be key because it will not only keep the high-octane Wildcats offense on the sidelines, but it will also keep the Northwestern defense from loading up on QB Tyler Russell.

The Bulldogs secondary was one of the top defensive groups in the SEC.  They were second in the conference with 30 INTs, but over their past 5 games they only recorded four picks.  In order to get back to the level that they started the season, Jim Thorpe Award winner (Top defensive back in the country), Johnathan Banks and crew will need to start playing up tho their ability.  Over their last five games, the Bulldogs gave up 273.4 yards per game and 12 TDs.  That type of performance will not get it done against a Wildcats offense that is averaging 31.5 points per game.

Look for Mississippi St to try and force Kain Colter and Trevor Siemian to stay in the pocket and throw the ball downfield.  Northwestern ranks among the worst team in the FBS in passing offense at just under 167 yards per game.  If Mississippi State can generate and maintain a lead deep into the fourth quarter, it should have the upper hand in forcing Northwestern to a predominantly pass-heavy attack although the Bulldogs have had trouble generating a pass rush this season.

November 17, 2012; East Lansing, MI, USA; Northwestern Wildcats player Kain Colter (2) runs the ball against the Michigan State Spartans defense during the 2nd half at Spartan Stadium. Northwestern won 23-20. Mandatory Credit: Mike Carter-USA TODAY Sports

For Northwestern to be successful, they are going to need a sterling performance from quarterbacks Kain Colter and Trevor Siemian.  Colter is the dual-threat playmaker that those who follow the Big Ten know can frustrate opposing defenses while Siemian is the drop back passer.  Both are talented in their respective craft, but Colter is the player more likely to be on the field either as a quarterback or as a receiver.  On the year Colter only threw for 796 yards, but he did throw for 8 TDs against only 2 INTs.  For Siemian, he was the team’s leading passer with nearly 1200 yards, 6 scores and 2 picks.

Along with Colter being elusive with his rushing ability, the offensive MVP for the Wildcats would be RB Venric Mark.  Mark provided a jolt of offense rushing for 1300+ yards, 3rd best total in the Big Ten behind Le’Veon Bell and Montee Ball, and 11 scores, and he was very fruitful as both a punt and kick returner.  There is no doubt he was able to change the tide of many games with a big run or return throughout the course of the year.

As mentioned earlier, Kain Colter is another tough rusher to bring down.  He was second on the team with 820 rushing yards and he led the team in rushing TDs with 12.  As a pass catcher, Colter hauled in 16 catches for 169 yards.  Couple Mark and Colter together, and they become Northwestern’s two most vitale offensive weapons that head coach Pat Fitzgerald must find a way to get involved early and often in the game plan.

If the game comes down to a last-second field goal, the Wildcats have the most accurate placekicker in the Big Ten and second most accurate in the country in Jeff Budzien.  On the year Budzien made 18 of 19 kicks and made all 46 of his PAT attempts.  Budzien was a perfect 17-17 on the season from 49 yards and in.

Defensively Damien Proby and David Nwabuisi are two of the most prolific tacklers in the Big Ten.  Combined the two recorded 198 tackles.  They will need to be steady and make open-field tackles to prevent Mississippi State from making big gains out of smaller plays.  Look for Tyler Scott, who ranks fourth in the Big Ten with 7 sacks, to generate pressure on Tyler Russell.

PREDICTION

Northwestern – 27

Mississippi State – 17

The first game takes us to Nashville, TN as the NC State Wolfpack do battle against the Vanderbilt Commodores in the Franklin American Mortgage Music City Bowl.  From there we travel to El Paso, Texas as those Southern California Trojans try to end their season on a bright note as they face off against the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets.  While that game is going on, we will quickly jetset back to Memphis, TN as AutoZone Liberty Bowl features the Iowa State Cyclones out of the Big 12 against the Tulsa Golden Hurricane, winners of Conference USA.  Finally, the last game of the evening may be the most intriguing from a match-up perspective.  The LSU Tigers will go up against the Clemson Tigers in the Chick-fil-A Bowl in Atlanta, GA.

These games should be an interesting appetizer to the New Year’s Day bowl games that feature six games, five of which include Big Ten teams.  A New Year’s Day Bowl Preview featuring Big Ten teams will be coming your way prior to the first New Year’s Day game so keep your eye out for that one.  We will ave commentary and previews from many of our football writers, lead editor Matt de Bear, staff writer Eric Scion, staff writer Chuck Reynolds, and myself.

Without further ado, let’s take a sneak peek at the New Year’s Eve Bowl Games starting with the Franklin American Mortgage Music City Bowl.  Enjoy your New Year’s Eve celebrations, be safe, and get ready for what hopefully will be a blessed 2013 including another great season for Penn State football…WE ARE…PENN STATE!!

Franklin American Mortgage Music City Bowl

TEAMS:  Vanderbilt (8-4, 5-3 Southeastern Conference) vs. North Carolina State (7-5, 4-4 Atlantic Coast Conference

TIME:  December 31st, 12:00 p.m. EST

TV:  ESPN

LAS VEGAS LINES:  Vanderbilt -7.5; Over/Under 51.5 points

In this preview we look at the Music City Bowl featuring North Carolina State out of the ACC conference taking on the Vanderbilt Commodores from the SEC.  This game is a veritable home game for Vanderbilt as their campus is in Nashville, TN and the Music City Bowl is in Memphis, TN, about a 3.5 drive.  Look for Vanderbilt to have a bevy of its fans at the game to create a home-game atmosphere!

Oct 01, 2011; Raleigh, NC, USA; North Carolina State Wolfpack cheerleaders on the sidelines in their game against the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets at Carter-Finley Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Mark Dolejs-USA TODAY Sports

The NC State Wolfpack enter the Music City Bowl as a bit of an enigma, they had some big wins including handing Florida State their only ACC loss, but the Wolfpack couldn’t sustain any momentum.  As big as the Florida State win was, the Virginia loss was just as bad.  On the whole, the Wolfpack started the season with some publications even including them in their preseason top-25.  However, an opening game loss to Tennessee quickly undid the high hopes that the Raleigh-faithful had.  The Wolfpack would rebound and win their next 3 games before dropping their ACC opener to Miami.  NC State didn’t stay down for long as they beat Florida State the following week and followed it up with a win over Maryland before dropping their next two in a row.  They ended the season by winning two of their last three games including a season-ending triumph over Boston College.

The question that everyone would like to know is what NC State team is going to show up an play Vanderbilt?  Will it be the team that held things together to beat Florida State, the ACC’s best team, or will it be the team that laid an egg against one of the ACC’s worst teams, Virginia?

Predominantly the NC State offense runs through their passing game.  The Wolfpack finished the regular season throwing for an average of 304.0 yards per game which was good for not only second in the ACC behind Clemson, but also 20th nationally.  While those numbers were impressive, their rushing statistics were just as putrid.  The Wolfpack rushed for nearly 117 yards per game which was good for 9th in the ACC but 108th nationally.  Teams were able to key on quarterback Mike Glennon and the Wolfpack receivers and place very little emphasis on the running attack.  If NC State hopes to win this contest, they will have to be on their game offensively because Vanderbilt maintains one of the best defenses in the SEC, a conference with defensive stalwarts like Alabama, LSU, South Carolina, and Florida.  In fact, Vanderbilt gave up the fewest yards of any team in the SEC (2110 yards).  It should be an interesting chess match to see how the NC State passing game will matriculate down the field against the Vanderbilt defense that doesn’t allow many passing yards.

NC State will be playing the game with a new coach.  Northern Illinois’s Dave Doeren was hired at the beginning of the month to replace Tom O’Brien.  Even though the Wolfpack finished the regular season with a winning record, university officials felt as though the program had grown state and a new voice was needed to restore the program to its once lofty status among ACC elites.  Coach Doeren will not be coaching the team in the bowl game.  That task will fall to offensive coordinator Dana Bible.

Vanderbilt, playing just a short drive from their campus will be looking for the program’s 9th victory for the first time since 1915!  Their 8 regular season wins are the most for a Commodore’s squad since 1982.  Many had written this team off once it started 2-4 with losses to South Carolina, Northwestern, Georgia, and Florida.  However, Vanderbilt went on to win their remaining six games to enter their bowl as one of the hottest team in the country.  This team possesses a lot of firepower and are led by a dynamic running back Zac Stacy.  Most would consider Vanderbilt a mediocre offense ranking in the middle of the pack nationally in terms of both rushing and passing the football.  What isn’t suspect is the Commodores defense.  Vanderbilt ranks 18th nationally in total defense allowing just over 326 yards per game.  Their defense is also only allowing a 14th best nationally 18.3 points per game.  If the game remains close, Vanderbilt also sports the most accurate kicker in the SEC, junior Carey Spear having made 19 of 22 FGs this season.

Dec 31, 2011; Memphis, TN, USA; Vanderbilt Commodores cheerleaders during the game against the Cincinnati Bearcats at the Liberty Bowl Memorial Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Spruce Derden-USA TODAY Sports

The Commodore’s head coach, James Franklin, once thought to be a candidate for the Penn State head coaching job before Bill O’Brien was hired, has a two-year record of 14-11 as they head into the bowl game.  While that may not seem like an overly impressive mark, consider, the 14 wins by a Vanderbilt coach over his first two years at the school is the best since Steve Sloan won 12 games in 1973-74.  Coach Franklin has this Commodore program headed in the right direction.  A few more impact recruits, and this team could be a force to be reckoned with in the SEC East.  The five conference wins tied the most wins Vanderbilt ever had in the SEC with the 1935 squad (only their fourth year in the SEC!).

Both teams enter this game with much to play for.  For NC State, they want to finish the season on a high note and head into the 2013 campaign with new head coach Dave Doeren riding a positive note.  For Vanderbilt, a 9th win would mean so much for a program that has been synonymous with mediocrity for so long.  Look for both teams to come out with a lot of emotion in this one!

PLAYERS TO WATCH

Vanderbilt revolves their offense around senior Zac Stacy.  On the year, Stacy ran for 1034 yards, accounting for over 50% of the Vanderbilt rushing yards.  Along with his 1000 yards rushing season, Stacy also posted a team-high 9 TDs as well as catching nine passes for 193 yards.  He is certainly the player to watch for Vanderbilt.  To be certain, Earl Wolff and Brandan Bishop, NC State’s leading tacklers, will have to keep one eye on Stacy.

When Vanderbilt isn’t running the ball, senior Jordan Rodgers, the younger brother of Green Bay Packers Aaron Rodgers, is slinging the ball.  On the year Rodgers threw for 2431 yards and 13 TDs while only throwing 5 INTs.  He has the knack for protecting the ball.  Rodgers has thrown for at least 200 yards in all but three games this season (one of which he was inactive).  Don’t be surprised to see Vanderbilt throw the ball in the neighborhood of 20-25 times.  The ability of the Commodores to vary their offensive play-calling is one reason they have been successful this year.  Both Rodgers and Stacy have the prowess and maturity to be vocal leaders for this Vanderbilt offensive squad.

On defense, Vanderbilt is led by Javon Marshall and Kenny Ladler, both of who are in the defensive secondary.  Normally it doesn’t bode well when your leading tacklers are from the defensive backfield, but these two are different from the average players.  Both are extremely active all around the field.  In fact, both are in the top-10 in solo tackles.

Vanderbilt’s leading sack man is junior linebacker Chase Garnham who had 5.5 sacks.  The Vanderbilt linebackers are extremely athletic.  They can rush the passer, something Garnham likes to do, or they can drop into coverage.  While Vanderbilt has only registered 28 sacks on the season (7th in the SEC), they are able to place enough pressure on the quarterback to force them into bad decisions.  The Commodores rank first in the SEC with 93 tackles for loss (tackles behind the line of scrimmage including sacks).  This just shows how fast and versatile the defensive lineman like senior Rob Lohr and junior Walker May have been this year.  Look for Vanderbilt to continually hound Wolfpack quarterback Mike Glennon all evening.

Speaking of Mike Glennon, the NC State Wolfpack quarterback, he led the ACC is passing yards per game with 304.  Not only did he lead the ACC in passing yards per game, but he also led the ACC in passing yards with 3648.  He ranked second in the conference to Clemson’s Tajh Boyd in TD passes with 30.  Suffice it to say the Wolfpack passing attack is what drives the offense.  Glennon has thrown for over 400 yards three times this season, remarkably, all in defeats.  Also, he has thrown four or more TDs in a game three times and those were defeats as well.  And, in all but one game he has managed to throw for at least 200 yards.  How Vanderbilt tries to counteract his throwing ability will be one of the game’s interesting little twists.

If Glennon is wracking up all of those passing yards, that means someone has to be be catching the passes.  For NC State, the primary receivers for Glennon are Quintin Payton who led the team in receptions (48) and yards (761 yards), Tobais Palmer who was second on the team in receptions (46), yards (670), and TD receptions (6), and Bryan Underwood who led the team in TD catches with 10.  TE Mario Carter has also been a favorite receiver of Glennon’s.  On the year, he made 31 catches for 333 yards and 2 scores.  Look for him to be more involved in the passing game as the Vanderbilt DBs will be trying to blanket the Wolfpack receivers.

As was mentioned earlier, the Wolfpack were led in tackles by two defensive backs, Earl Wolff and Brandan Bishop.  Both registered 99 or more tackles and were two of the top-3 tackling defensive backs in the ACC.

On the defensive line look for Darryl Cato-Bishop and Art Norman to impose their will on the Commodore offensive linemen.  Both men combined for 12 sacks on the year to lead the team.  T.Y. McGill also added 4 sacks.  The pressure that the DL are able to bring allowed the defensive backs to play more aggressively on the wide receivers.  As a result, NC State led the ACC in interceptions (16).  In fact, David Amerson was tied for the conference lead in INTs with 5.  Bishop and Justin Burris both had 3 INTs each.  Look for the secondary of the Wolfpack to very active and aggressive with the Commodore receivers.  In turn, that could lead to a couple of picks of Jordan Rodgers.

PREDICTION

Vanderbilt – 23

NC State – 17

TEAMS:  Michigan State (6-6, 3-5 Big Ten Conference) vs. TCU (7-5, 4-5 Big 12 Conference)

TIME:  December 29th, 10:15 p.m. EST

TV:  ESPN

LAS VEGAS LINES:  TCU -2.5; Over/Under 40.5

After a wild game last night between Texas Tech and Minnesota, a game pulled out  on last-second field goal by Texas Tech, the Big Ten is looking to notch their first win of the 2012 bowl season.  Tonight the Big Ten will be sending out the Michigan State Spartans to square off against the Big 12′s TCU Horned Frogs in the Buffalo Wild Wings Bowl.  Last year this bowl was known as the Insight.com bowl.  For Michigan State, this bowl game is probably not where they thought they would be at the start of the season.  Sure, they had to replace All-Big Ten quarterback Kirk Cousins, but they were returning running back Le’Veon Bell.  The defense was also mostly intact, a defense that was near the top of the Big Ten last year.  So, for Michigan State, losing 6 games and posting a sub-.500 conference record were not something they thought was likely in 2012.  However, that is where the Spartans are at.

The Spartans started off in fine fashion as they defeated #24 Boise State to open the season, but losses to Notre Dame and Ohio State in weeks 3 and 5 left the Spartans faithful wondering just how good their team was going to be.  After a win over Indiana, the Spartans would go on to lose their next two games to Iowa and Michigan respectively.  Michigan State was able to stem the tide with a hard-fought, comeback OT win over the Big Ten Champion Wisconsin Badgers, but the bravado was short-lived as Sparty lost back-to-back games to Nebraska and Northwestern.  Michigan State came into their final game of the season against Minnesota needing a win just to be bowl eligible!  The Spartans delivered and inspired effort to knock off the Golden Gophers and get their 6th win of the year.

March 12, 2011; Indianapolis, IN, USA; A Michigan State Spartans cheerleader on the court during a timeout against the Penn State Nittany Lions in the semi-final round of the 2011 Big Ten Tournament at Conseco Fieldhouse. Penn State defeated Michigan State 61-48. Mandatory credit: Michael Hickey-USA TODAY Sports

Now the Spartans enter the Buffalo Wild Wings Bowl with just as many question marks as they did to start the season.  The defense still remains highly regarded as they once again posted the top-rated defense in the Big Ten allowing only 273.3 yards per game and giving up 16.3 points per game, good for 9th nationally in that category.  The problem for Michigan State all year has been their offense.  Yes, they have one of the best players in the Big Ten, and perhaps the country, in RB Le’Veon Bell, but first-year starter Andrew Maxwell has had trouble replacing Kirk Cousins at the helm of the Spartans offense.  The junior quarterback needs to find his niche if he is going to help guide the Spartans to a bowl victory over one of the stingiest defenses in the country in TCU.

Michigan State will be facing a TCU club that has had their share of problems both on and off the field this year.  Head coach Gary Patterson and the Horned Frogs spent their first year in the Big 12 and started off with a bang.  They won their first four games and 5 of 6.  After TCU started 4-0, they hit a bit of a rough stretch when their on-field leader, quarterback Casey Pachall, left the team after having substance abuse problems.  Freshman Trevone Boykin took over the team and they expectedly began to falter, losing 3 of their next 4 games.  Then, Boykin began to hit his stride as he led the Horned Frogs to wins over ranked West Virginia and Texas squads.

For TCU to win the Buffalo Wild Wings Bowl, they are going to need to solve the Michigan State defense, specifically how to handle the Spartans secondary.  Michigan State was third in the Big Ten with 13 INTs.  Boykin, being a a freshman, does have a penchant for throwing a pick.  On the year he threw 9 INTs in essentially 8 games.  Look for Michigan State to bring pressure, even though they were one of the worst Big Ten teams in terms of getting sacks, to force Boykin into making bad decisions.  If Boykin can make the right reads and make good decisions, the TCU offense may be able to put up enough points to defeat the Spartans.

PLAYERS TO WATCH

Michigan State offensively has been defined by the play of All-Big Ten running back Le’Veon Bell.  Bell, a junior, carried the ball a career-high 350 times for 1648 yards.  He was able to punch it into the end zone 11 times.  No doubt that most teams would develop game plans to slow down Bell and force Maxwell to beat them through the air.  For the most past, those plans failed!  Bell has had three consecutive games where he has rushed for over 100 yards including the season finale, a win over Minnesota, where Bell rushed for 266 yards and 1 score on 35 carries.  There’s little doubt that TCU is going to try and slow down Bell.  If they are successful, chances are they will win the game.  However, most teams have taken that approach and most teams have failed.  On the season Bell has rushed for less than 100 yards five times, when he doesn’t reach the century mark, the Spartans are 2-3.  Keep that stat in mind.  If TCU can limit Bell to less than 100 yards rushing, they have a good shot of winning the game.

While Bell is the focal point of the Michigan State offense, much of the outcome of the bowl game will rest on the shoulders of junior quarterback Andrew Maxwell.  Maxwell threw for over 2500 yards but completed just over 52% of his passes.  His decision-making skills have also been called into question as he has thrown 13 TDs but he has countered that by throwing 9 INTs.  In fact, he is riding quite a dubious streak as he has thrown two picks in each of his last two games.  TCU is giving up 228 passing yards per game and 21 TDs, but they also have intercepted 21 passes which leads the Big 12 (4th best in the country).  Maxwell will need to be sure of his target and make good decisions if Michigan State is to pull out the victory.

On defense, Michigan State is paced by junior linebacker Max Bullough who led the team with 101 tackles, good for 7th in the Big Ten.  On the defensive line, TCU will have to contend with William Gholston who led the Spartans in sacks with 3.5.  However, the most dominant aspect of the Michigan State defense has been the play of the Spartans secondary led by junior Darqueze Dennard and senior Johnny Adams.  Both players intercepted 3 passes each placing them 6th in the Big Ten in that category.  No doubt that those two will have their eyes on TCU’s top wideout Josh Boyce and secondary receivers Brandon Carter and LaDarius Brown.

In order for Boyce, Brown, and Carter to get the ball, TCU’s freshman quarterback Trevone Boykin will have to do a good job of maneuvering around the Spartans defense.  Just like Maxwell for Michigan State, Boykin threw 9 INTs to counteract his 15 TDs.  There is little doubt that Michigan State will try to force him into making even more mistakes as they try to disguise blitz packages and dropping linebackers into coverage.  Boykin, unlike Maxwell, has the ablity to escape pressure by using his legs.  On the season, Boykin has rushed for 380 yards and 3 scores.  Watch to see how well Michigan State does of trying to keep Boykin in the pocket.  Making him strictly a passer has to bode well for the Spartans.

Oct 20, 2012; Fort Worth, TX, USA; A TCU Horned Frogs cheerleader performs during a break in the game between the Horned Frogs and the Texas Tech Red Raiders at Amon G. Carter Stadium. The Red Raiders defeated the Horned Frogs 56-53 in overtime. Mandatory Credit: Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports

As was mentioned earlier, TCU has a plethora of wide receivers that have put up decent numbers.  The wideouts are led by Josh Boyce who caught 61 passes for 800 yards and 7 scores.  Other top targets for Boykin have been Brandon Carter and Skye Dawson.  Both players caught 34 passes for over 1000 yards combined and 7 scores.  Finally, watch for Boykin trying to complete passes to LaDarius Brown who made 25 receptions, but 5 of them were for scores.

Defensively for TCU, keep your eye on freshman defensive linemen Devonte Fields.  Fields was second in the Big 12 with 9 sacks.  His linemates, Stansly Maponga and Chucky Hunter combined for 6.5 sacks.  The ability of TCU to pressure Andrew Maxwell and to get him out of rhythm is something that Horned Frogs faithful should be watching.

PREDICTION

Michigan State – 23

TCU – 21

Oct 22, 2011; Houston, TX, USA; Rice Owls cheerleader performs against the Tulsa Golden Hurricane in the third quarter at Rice Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Brett Davis-USA TODAY Sports

Our first game on Saturday Dec 29th is the Bell Helicopter Armed Forces Bowl involving the Rice Owls out of Conference USA and the Air Force Academy out of the Mountain West Conference.  After that, we delve into the New Era Pinstripe Bowl featuring two of the best passers in college football, Geno Smith of West Virginia and Ryan Nassib of Syracuse.  What would have been a Big East tilt last year now pairs these two teams representing the Big 12 and the Big East.

The Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl will match the Navy Midshipmen against the Arizona State Sun Devils in San Francisco’s AT&T Park.  At or near the conclusion of that game, we will take you deep in the heart of Texas to San Antonio as the Texas Longhorns will do battle against the upstart Oregon State Beavers in he Alamo Bowl.  Finally, to conclude the evening, We will go West to Tempe, Arizona as the TCU Horned Frogs will duke it out against the Big Ten’s second bowl team, the Michigan State Spartans.  As mentioned earlier, that game will be previewed in a separate posting.

Saturday is a day where you can grab your favorite beverage, perhaps order a pizza – or two, and sit back, relax, and rejoice at all the college football you will have to watch!  Without further ado, we move on and look at the games for Saturday Dec. 29th.

Bell Helicopter Armed Forces Bowl

TEAMS: Rice Owls (6-6, 4-4 Conference USA) vs. Air Force Academy (6-6, 5-3 Mountain West Conference)

TIME: Saturday Dec 29th, 11:45 a.m. EST

TV: ESPN

LAS VEGAS LINES: Air Force -2; Over/Under 62 points

The Rice Owls enter the Armed Forces Bowl as one of the hottest team in the nation winning five of their last six games, and it couldn’t come at a better time.  With the Owls’ backs up against the wall, Rice needed to win their remaining four games to become bowl-eligible, and that is just what they did!  Rice defeated Southern Miss, Tulane, SMU, and UTEP to reach the six-win plateau.  Now, they get a chance to earn their seventh win if they are able to beat the Air Force Academy and their triple-option offense.

Rice enters this contest as one of the nation’s best rushing teams averaging over 201 yards of rushing per game.  That number ranks second in Conference USA behind Tulsa and 30th nationally.  The Owls have also been able to put up points whether they win or not.  Rice has averaged scoring 31.8 points per game this year.  in fact, over their last four games, all wins, Rice scored no less than 33 points in any game.

The problem with Rice hasn’t been their ability to score, it has been their ability to keep the opposition from scoring more!  Rice has averaged giving up 31.3 points per game.  That stat places them 6th in Conference USA but 89th nationally.  Teams have been able to both pass and run efficiently against Rice, and that could pose a problem since Air Force is the second most prolific rushing offense in the country.  For Rice to win, the formula is simple, find a way to stop the Air Force rushing attack.

Nov 3, 2012; West Point, NY, USA; Air Force Falcons head coach Troy Calhoun looks on during the second half against the Army Black Knights at Michie Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Danny Wild-USA TODAY Sports

Air Force enters the Armed Forces Bowl on a bit of a skid.  They have lost three of their last four games including their last game of the year at Fresno State.  Early in the season it looked as if head coach Troy Calhoun’s teams was going to struggle in 2012.  They had lost three of their first five games including a 31-25 defeat at Michigan, but then things turned around.  The Falcons hit their stride and won 3 straight including an impressive win over Nevada.  One of the biggest disappointments of the 2012 campaign was losing the Commander-In-Chief’s Trophy for the first time since 2009.  To help put that disappointment behind them, the Air Force cadets will be looking to take their frustration out against the Rice Owls.

Those that have watched Air Force football games knows that they, along with Georgia Tech and Navy are some of the few teams in the FBS that exclusively employ the triple-option attack as their offensive style.  As such, those teams will likely appear at or near the top of any rushing statistics, and, that is where you will find Air Force (ranked 2nd in FBS) averaging 328.8 yards rushing per game.  On the other hand, the Falcon’s passing attack is one of the worst in the FBS ranking 122nd out of 124 teams.  In fact, in Air Force’s game against Hawaii which they won 21-7, the Falcons did not even attempt a single pass in the game!

The Armed Forces Bowl features two teams, Rice and Air Force, that rank 2nd and 30th nationally respectively in average rushing yards per game.  So, if you are a fan of running the football, Saturday’s game should be right up your alley.  For those of you who like throwing the ball down the field, I think you may have to wait and watch another game.

PLAYERS TO WATCH

With such a potent rushing attack, Air Force can feature a few running backs that can move the ball down the field.  The Falcons best rushing weapon is senior Cody Getz.  Getz has powered his way to a 1000 yards rushing season (1213 yards) and has muscled his way into the endzone 9 times.  His low-to-the-ground rushing style makes him difficult for defenders to see and even harder for them to bring him down.  Look for him to get plenty of work in this game as he should see somewhere between 15-25 carries in this game.

The other primary weapon for Air Force is their quarterback, senior Connor Dietz.  Dietz enters this contest having thrown only 108 times all season for a tad over 1000 yards and 8 TDs.  He is also the team’s second leading rusher going off for 658 yards and 5 scores.  Look for him to carry the ball in the neighborhood of 10-15 times in the game.  His ability to manage the game, make the right reads, and pitch the ball on the option will be crucial to Air Force winning their first bowl game since 2010.

On defense, Air Force has a bunch of senior linebackers that like to do nothing more than fly around the field making tackles.  The Falcons were led by Austin Niklas who was 4th in the MWC with 114 tackles.  He was followed closely by Alex Means who recorded 89 tackles good for 10th in the MWC.  Not only were the linebackers key in making tackles, but so were the defensive backs.  Christian Spears ranked 3rd among all defensive backs in the MWC in tackles with 86 and Brian Lindsay had 83.  Making the tackle at the point of attack will be a significant factor for Air Force in trying to slow down and containing elusive Rice running back Charles Ross or QB Taylor McHargue.

Rice, much like Air Force, relies greatly upon their rushing attack to do most of their offensive damage.  Charles Ross was the leading rusher for Rice during the 2012 regular season.  He ripped off 743 yards and 4 TDs including a season-high 154 yard performance against UTEP in their regular season finale.  His touches and yards are seemingly determined by the flow of the game.  Times where Rice has been force to play catch up, he has had little involvement in the game.  Times where the game has been closer or Rice has led, he will get 15-20 touches.  Any time Ross has gotten 10 or more rushes in a game, the Rice Owls 2012 record is 4-3.  While the numbers aren’t overwhleming, it bodes well for Rice if he can get more than 10 rushes.

Just like Air Force relies on their quarterback to make sound decisions, Rice also relies on their quarterback to make the right reads.  Rice is led by junior Taylor McHargue.  However, unlike Air Force, McHargue will drop back and throw the ball more often than Air Force will do.  McHargue has thrown 317 times for 2178 yards and 11 TDs.  He also has the ability to run the ball and keep the defenses honest.  On the season, McHargue has 628 yards rushing and 11 scores.  The balanced type of offense that Rice will employ will keep the linebackers and the secondary of Air Force on their toes the entire game.

For Rice and McHargue, the main receiving threats come in the form of four players, Jordan Taylor, Sam McGuffie, Vance McDonald, and Donte Moore.  Taylor led the team in receiving yards with 673 while McGuffie led the team in receptions with 49 and TDs with 5.  McDonald and Moore combined for 59 receptions and 737 yards receiving with 6 scores.  All four of these receivers will keep the Air Force secondary busy throughout.

PREDICTION

Rice – 30

Air Force – 33

TIME: Friday Dec. 28, 9:00 PM EST

TV: ESPN

LAS VEGAS LINES: Texas Tech -13; Over/Under 55 points

Tonight is the first bowl game involving a Big Ten Team – the Minnesota Golden Gophers.  The Gophers are in the Meineke Car Care of Texas Bowl in Houston Texas.  Their opponent, the Texas Tech Red Raiders and their high-flying offense led by quarterback Seth Doege.

Nov 24, 2012; Arlington, TX, USA; Texas Tech Red Raiders quarterback Seth Doege (7) throws a pass against the Baylor Bears during the game at Cowboys Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Tim Heitman-USA TODAY Sports

Texas Tech will be lead by interim coach Chris Thomsen who takes over the reigns from the recently departed Tommy Tuberville who left earlier this month to assume the same duties with the Cincinnati Bearcats.

On the other side line Minnesota Golden Gopher head coach Jerry Kill has led a resurgence of a team that has not made a bowl game since 2009 and has not won one since it defeated Alabama in the 2004 Music City Bowl.  In coach Kill’s two seasons at the helm of Minnesota, he has an overall record of 9-15, but his team has shown improvement from year 1 to year 2.  Last year his team only managed three wins while doubling that mark this year.  If the Gophers could cap off the 2012 year with a win over Texas Tech, the Gophers would finish over .500 for the first time since 2008.

Both teams enter having lost three of their last four including their last two games of the season.  Texas Tech limps into the game having lost four of their last five games including their last two games.  The Red Raiders started the season looking like they could be a surprise contender for the Big 12 title winning 6 of their first seven games including wins over #5 West Virginia and #23 TCU.  Then the wheels seemed to fall off.  The Red Raiders who boasted one of the top defenses in the country early on, started relinquishing points with great efficiency.  In their last 5 games, of which they won only once, they gave up at least 31 points in every game.  That type of defense will not get it done in a conference that led the nation in scoring offense.  How will Texas Tech respond when they have to defend the speedy Donnell Kirkwood and MarQueis Gray.

The Gophers have lost three of their last four including their last two games.  Like Texas Tech, Minnesota started of extremely hot winning their first four in a row with wins over UNLV and over Syracuse.  And, like Texas Tech, Minnesota then began a stretch where they faltered a bit.  Minnesota only posted a 2-6 conference record which was good for 5th in the Legend’s Division.  One aspect of the Golden Gophers game that has been overlooked coming into the bowl game is their pass defense.  The Gophers ranked 4th in the Big Ten and 11th nationally allowing only 178.5 yards passing per game.  They will have their hands full trying to slow down a Texas Tech passing offense that 1st in the Big 12 and 2nd nationally throwing for more than 360 yards per game.

How Jerry Kill and the Gophers are able to handle the passing game of Texas Tech will go a long way in determining their success in Houston.

PLAYERS TO WATCH

For Texas Tech, who are trying to win 8 games for the first time since 2010, they will rely heavily upon the arm of senior quarterback Seth Doege.  Doege sits 66 yards shy of passing for 4000 yards for the second consecutive season.  To go along with his nearly 4000 yards, he has also thrown for 38 TDs and only 14 INTs.  What may be even more impressive for Doege is his 70.4% completion percentage having thrown 496 times this season.  In fact, his completion percentage ranks 3rd nationally and his TDs rank 2nd in the nation.

More than likely you will be seeing Doege on Sundays in the near future.  He has a strong, accurate arm, and he makes sound decisions.  The one knock against Seth is his height.  He is only 6-1 and some teams may be hesitant to take a chance on him and his ability to see over the line.  If he does get a chance, son;t be surprised if he sticks in the NFL for years to come.

Oct 27, 2012; Minneapolis, MN, USA; Minnesota Golden Gophers wide receiver MarQueis Gray (5) carries the ball during the second quarter against the Purdue Boilermakers at TCF Bank Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Brace Hemmelgarn-USA TODAY Sports

Minnesota scat back / wide receiver / quarterback MarQueis Gray is one of the best in the Big Ten.  He has the ability to turn the momentum in a single play.  Gray was the Gophers “Mr Everything” as he started the year at quarterback throwing for 464 yards and 5 TDs.  He was hurt against Western Michigan and sat out the next two games.  When he returned, he was moved to WR/RB.  As a running back, Gray posted 331 yards and 5 TDs, and as a wide receiver he hauled in 12 passes for 121 yards.  While his numbers may not be eye-popping, the ability of the defense to gameplan for him is difficult since you never know where he is going to line up.

The Red Raiders possess two of the most prolific wide receivers in the country.  Eric Ward and Darrin Moore have combined for 156 receptions for 1922 yards and 24 TDs.  Each ranks in the top-26 nationally in receptions and in the top-11 in TD receptions.  Ward and Moore will be Seth Doege’s primary targets, but Texas Tech will also throw to Jace Amaro, Tyson Williams, and Jakeem Grant.  Each has made over 23 receptions on the year.

On the ground, Minnesota was paced by Donnell Kirkwood.  The sophomore wet off for 849 yards on 199 carries and 5 TDs.  Kirkwood posted 3 100-yard games with a high if 152 yards against Illinois.

GAME PREDICTION

Many, including those in Las Vegas seem to be heavily favoring Texas Tech.  And, while on paper the Red Raiders seem to have the more potent offense, the Gophers have one of the best passing defenses in the country.  That defense is going to have to come up large if the Gophers are going to have a chance of pulling off the upset.

Look for Minnesota to do what they can to control the time of possession and limit how many time Texas Tech gets their hands on the ball.  Minnesota will try and establish the run game with Kirkwood and Gray while mixing in play-action passes with freshman QB Philip Nelson.  If Minnesota can have success on the ground, then Minnesota will have a chance, but if they are forced to rely on the true freshman and his arm, Minnesota could be in for a long evening.

For the Red Raiders, look for them to continue the mantra: “If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it!”  Meaning, Texas Tech is going to sling the ball all over the joint.  While Texas Tech does possess a running back, Kenny Williams who went for 779 yards and 5 scores, he is merely a change of pace rather than the primary option.  Seth Doege and the passing game is the primary offensive weapon for Texas Tech.  If Minnesota cannot slow down the passing game, this game could get out of hand early!

Look for Minnesota to to be in the ball game at the half.  I think they will be able to stay within 2-scores by halftime.  In the second half, Texas Tech and the pace of their offense will wear down the Gophers and their defensive line.  The Minnesota rushing game will also begin to falter in the second half forcing them to go more to the pass which will play right into Texas Tech’s 39th ranked team defense.  Look for Texas Tech to pull away as the second half unfolds.  Minnesota will not be able to climb above .500 this season, but coach Jerry Kill has the Golden Gophers headed in the right direction.

SCORE

Minnesota – 13

Texas Tech – 44

In part I of this preview, we will look at the games that will be played from December 24th through December 28th.  A second preview will be coming your way that details games from December 29th through the end of the bowl season.  We will also be highlighting the Big Ten teams as they try to battle for conference supremacy.

Along the way, other VBR staffers, Chuck Reynolds, Matt Sion, and of course, our lead editor Matt de Bear will stop by to give their take on certain games, including the BCS games and the BCS National Championship.

So, sit back, relax, and get the remote control ready for one of the most exciting times of the year to be a college football fan.  And, remember, only 251 more days until Penn State’s 2012 opening game with Syracuse!

College Football Bowl Preview (Part I)

November 24, 2012; Fresno, CA, USA; Fresno State Bulldogs tight end Marcel Jensen (89) runs with the ball after making a catch against the Air Force Fighting Falcons in the third quarter at Bulldog Stadium. The Bulldogs defeated the Fighting Falcons 48-15. Mandatory Credit: Cary Edmondson-USA TODAY Sports

Sheraton Hawaii Bowl (December 24th)

Teams: Fresno St. vs SMU

Fresno State Game Preview:

The Bulldogs of Fresno State were one of the surprise teams of the Mountain West Conference.  Fresno State finished the regular season with a 9-3 record (7-1 in the MWC).  They finished the season tied for 1st place along with San Diego State and Boise State.  On the year, the three defeats suffered by the Bulldogs were to bowl teams (Oregon, Boise State, and Tulsa).

The Bulldogs are led by standout junior QB Derek Carr who threw for 3742 yards with 36 TDs against only 5 INTs.  On the ground, Fresno State relied heavily on senior Robbie Rouse.  Rouse rushed for nearly 1500 yards and scored 14 TDs (12 rushing and 2 receiving).  On the whole, the Bulldogs ranked 12th nationally in scoring offense averaging 40.3 points per game and 14th overall in total offense averaging 488.5 yards per game.

On defense, the Bulldogs ranked second in the Mountain West Conference in total defense allowing only 334.9 yards per game.  Keep your eye on the tenacious Bulldogs defense in this game as they were tied for first in the MWC in sacks with 33 and were second in the league in turnover margin with a +17 mark.  Look out for the Bulldogs senior defensive back Phillip Thomas who led the team in tackles with 82.

Of note: Fresno State enters the Hawaii Bowl on a 5-game winning streak.

SMU Game Preview:

SMU enters the Hawaii Bowl coming off one of their biggest win of the year, a win over Conference USA champion Tulsa.  SMU Head Coach June Jones is no stranger to playing in Hawaii as he coached the Rainbows from 1999-2007.  As head coach of SMU, he led the Mustangs to a Hawaii Bowl victory in 2009.  This year, he brings his 6-6 SMU Mustangs to Hawaii.  SMU started the season 2-4 before finishing the year 4-2.

The Mustangs got plenty of production from their junior QB Garrett Gilbert.  Gilbert threw for over 2700 yards with 14 TDs and 13 INTs.  On the ground the Mustangs were paced by senior RB Zach Line.  Line was able to rush for over 1200 yards and score 12 TDs.  In his last game against Tulsa, Line carried the ball 23 times for 81 yards and 3 TDs.  If SMU is going to stay close in this one, Line is going to have to be a force.  On the year, SMU has done most of its damage from the passing game as they ranked 6th in Conference USA while they ranked 10th in the league in rushing.

The strength of the SMU team lies in its defense.  They rank 4th in Conference USA in total defense.  While their pass defense leaves something to be desired (ranks 10th in the league), their rush defense ranks second in the league giving up an average of only 129.08 yards per game.  The match-up of SMU’s rush defense against the prowess of Fresno State’s Robbie Rouse will be one of the intriguing story lines of this contest.

Of note: The last time the Mustangs played a bowl in Hawaii (2009), they were significant underdogs against Nevada, yet won the game.

Prediction:

Fresno State – 38

SMU – 17

Sep 29, 2012; Jonesboro, AR, USA; Western Kentucky Hilltoppers running back Antonio Andrews (5) looks to pass during the game against the Arkansas State Red Wolves at Liberty Bank Stadium. Western Kentucky defeated Arkansas State 26-13. Mandatory Credit: Nelson Chenault-USA TODAY Sports

Little Caesars Pizza Bowl (December 26th)

Teams: Western Kentucky vs Central Michigan

Western Kentucky Game Preview:

The Western Kentucky Hilltoppers have the worst record of any bowl-eligible Sun Belt Conference team (7-5).  They have lost 3 of their last 4 contests, yet, they couldn’t be happier about going to a bowl game after being snubbed last year despite posting a 7-5 record last season and winning 7 of their last 8.  Western Kentucky has been a testament to hard work and perseverance.  You knew something special could be brewing in hills of Bowling Green, KY when the Hilltoppers were able to knock off their in-state rivals, Kentucky with a wild 32-31 OT thriller.

On offense, the Hilltoppers are led by senior QB Kawaun Jakes.  Jakes has thrown for 2289 yards on only 288 pass attempts.  He has also thrown for 21 TDs against only 11 INTs.  While he doesn’t throw the ball all that often, when he does, he is extremely accurate.  His 2012 completion percentage is 64.6%.  The bulk of the offensive work belongs to junior RB Antonio Andrews.  Andrews toted the rock 277 times for 1609 yards and 14 TDs (3 of them receiving).  Western Kentucky ranked 3rd in the Sun Belt in rushing offense averaging 186.58 yards per game.  The Hilltoppers possess an inside and outside receiving threat.  On the outside, Western Kentucky likes to go to their sophomore wideout Willie McNeal.  McNeal has 40 receptions on the year for 506 yards and 6 TDs.  On the inside, Western Kentucky make use of their tight end, Jack Doyle.  Doyle led the team in receptions (47) and yards (530).  He also scored 4 TDs.  Look for him to be one of Jakes’ top targets in the game.

On defense, Western Kentucky led the Sun Belt in total defense allowing 342.8 yards per game.  The Hilltoppers ranked second in the league in both pass and rush defense.  They also ranked second in the league in scoring defense giving up only 25.6 points per game.  Keep your eye on junior linebacker Andrew Jackson who was second in the conference in tackles with 116.  The pass rush threat for Western Kentucky will most likely come from senior defensive lineman Quanterus Smith who led the Sun Belt with 12.5 sacks.  That is an incredible number if you consider his 12.5 sacks were 5.5 more than the second player!

Of note: Prior to this year, the last time Western Kentucky played in a bowl game was December 28, 1963.  Their opponent was the Coast Guard Bears.  WKU won the game 27-0.

Central Michigan Game Preview:

Central Michigan enters the Little Caesars Bowl rising a 3-game winning streak.  Sitting at 3-6, Central Michigan had to win out to become bowl eligible, and that is exactly what they did!  You can describe Central Michigan’s season in one word – STREAK.  The Chippewas started the season losing 5 of their first 7 games, but they finished the season winning 4 of their last 5 games.  Without question, the biggest Central Michigan win would be the 32-31 victory over Iowa.  What team shows up for the Little Caesars Bowl will be anyone’s guess!

Central Michigan, a member of the MAC Conference’s Western Division, is led by senior QB Ryan Radcliff.  Radcliff has passed for over 2900 yards including 20 TDs and 9 INTs.  His numbers are good for 4th in the MAC in passing yards per game (242.1 ypg).  The guy to keep your eye on in the Central Michigan offense is junior RB Zurlon Tipton.  Tipton ranks 4th in the MAC Conference in rushing yards per game with 115.92 ypg.  On the season Tipton has rushed for 1391 yards and scored 20 TDs (1 receiving).  He is the focal point of the CMU offense, and he should be the prime target for the Western Kentucky defenders.  At the wideout position, the Chippewas have two main receiving threats, senior Cody Wilson who lead the team with 64 receptions, and sophomore Titus Davis who led the team with 860 receiving yards and 8 TDs.

Defensively, Central Michigan ranked near the middle of the MAC Conference in total defense, scoring defense, rushing defense and passing defense.  On the whole, the Chippewas are giving up an average of 33.3 points per game.  The strength of the CMU defense is their linebacking corps.  Both linebackers sophomore Justin Cherocci and junior Shamari Benton rank in the top-10 of the MAC conference in tackles.  Senior defensive lineman Caesar Rodriguez ranked in the top-20 in sacks with 4.0.  With Rodriguez’s presence on the line and Cherocci and Benton playing behind him, the Chippewas could make life difficult for Kawaun Jakes and the rest of the Western Kentucky squad.

Of note: Central Michigan’s last bowl appearance was the 2009 GMAC Bowl (Present Day Little Caesar’s Bowl) where they defeated Troy 44-41.

Prediction:

Western Kentucky – 28

Central Michigan – 20

Sept 22, 2012; Blacksburg, VA, USA; Bowling Green Falcons quarterback Matt Johnson (11) passes the ball against the Virginia Tech Hokies at Lane Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Peter Casey-USA TODAY Sports

Military Bowl (December 27th)

Teams: San Jose State vs Bowling Green

San Jose State Game Preview:

The San Jose State Trojans may be one of the most underrated teams in college football.  Coming off of a 10-2 regular season, their only losses came to Pac-12 Champion Stanford and WAC Conference champion Utah State.  The Trojans enter the Military Bowl on a 6-game winning streak.  San Jose State has wins over San Diego State, Navy, and BYU on their resume this season.  One question mark hanging over the heads of the Trojan’s players is how will the team respond to defensive coordinator and interim head coach Kent Baer who takes over for Mike MacIntyre (left to coach the Colorado Buffaloes).  While I do not expect a drop-off in play, you never know when it comes to bowl play.

San Jose State has made their living on offense by throwing the football.  The Trojans rank second in the WAC Conference in passing yards per game, averaging 327.5 yards per game.  Junior QB David Fales has nearly 3800 yards passing complete with 31 TDs against only 9 INTs.  Besides QB Fales, the Trojans feature standout WR Noel Grigsby.  The junior wideout has amassed 1173 yards receiving on 73 catches and 9 TDs.  He is Fales favorite target, and he should draw plenty of attention from the Bowling Green Defenders.  When teams take away Grigsby, Fales will look to his big tight end, senior Ryan Otten.  On the year, Otten has 44 receptions for 706 yards and 4 TDs.  San Jose State is more of a passing-style offense so it is no surprise that the team ranks near the bottom of the conference in rushing offense.  However, when they do run the ball, the primary carrier is senior De’Leon Eskridge.  In the regular season Eskridge rushed for nearly 1000 yards (992) scoring 10 TDs.  Suffice it to say, if you take away one aspect of the Trojan’s offensive game plan, they can always turn to another part to get the job done.

While the San Jose State offense has been exciting to watch this year averaging 35.3 points per game, good for 27th nationally, it may be their defense that steals the show.  The Trojans rank second in the WAC Conference in yards allowed per game (351.4 ypg) and average giving up only 21.4 points per game.  The defense is led by junior linebackers Keith Smith and Vince Buhagiar.  Combined, the two have made 169 tackles.  The defensive line has some of the most ornery people that you’ll ever want to meet!  Travis Johnson led the WAC Conference in tackles for loss with 19.0.  Other members of the defensive line include Travis Raciti, Anthony Larceval, and David Tuitupou.  Combined, these four players have made 50.5 tackles for loss on the season.  Johnson, Larceval, and Raciti are the top-three in regards to sacks in the WAC with a total of 26.0.  This defense is mean, and it will punish you every chance they get!

Of note: San Jose State’s last bowl game was the 2006 New Mexico Bowl where they faced the Lobos and beat them 20-12.

Bowling Green Game Preview:

The Bowling Green Falcons were a late season loss to Kent State away from playing for the MAC Conference title.  Never-the-less, the Falcons finished the season with an 8-4 overall mark and a 6-2 conference record winning 7 of their last 8 games.  Bowling Green has a key win over Ohio University, a team that beat the Nittany Lions.

Bowling Green is paced offensively by junior QB Matt Schilz.  On the season, Schilz has passed for 2426 yards and has also thrown for 14 TDs and 12 INTs.  The Falcons like to spread the ball around.  They have 4 players that have 30 or more receptions on the season.  The leading receiver was freshman Chris Gallon who hauled in 47 passes 647 yards and 6 TDs.  Look for Schilz to continue to move the ball around to his plethora of receivers and force San Jose State to make tackles in space.

The leading rusher for the Falcons is sophomore Anthon Samuel.  Samuel is a dual-threat running back.  He has 966 yards rushing and 10 TDs, but he also has 20 receptions for 186 yards and a score.  Bowling Green also will feature senior John Pettigrew.  Pettigrew rushed for 503 yards and 5 scores.  Samuel and Pettigrew’s ability to make plays both in the running game as well as in the passing game will be key to keeping San Jose State from bringing the house on every play.

While the offense for Bowling Green has not set the world on fire this season, the Falcon’s defense has been every bit as good as advertised.  The Falcons led the MAC in points against giving up only 15.8 points per game.  In fact, Bowling Green ranked 9th nationally in that category.  Also, Bowling Green led the MAC in total defense giving up a paltry 289.7 yards per game.  That total was 67 yards better then their nearest MAC competitor.  The Falcons defensive line is led by senior Chris Jones who led the MAC with 12.5 sacks on the season.

The Military Bowl should be an interesting match-up between two contrasting teams.  San Jose State can put up points in a hurry while Bowling Green possesses a defense that does not allow many yards or points.  Whichever team can impose their will should likely walk away with the victory in this game.

Of note: Bowling Green’s last bowl game was the 2009 Humanitarian Bowl, a 43-42 loss to Idaho.

Prediction:

San Jose State – 27

Bowling Green – 20

Nov 12, 2011; Cincinnati, OH, USA; Cincinnati Bearcats cheerleaders perform in the first half against the West Virginia Mountaineers at Paul Brown Stadium. The Mountaineers defeated the Bearcats 24-21. Mandatory Credit: Frank Victores-USA TODAY Sports

Belk Bowl (December 27th)

Teams: Duke vs Cincinnati

Duke Game Preview:

The Blue Devils are bowling for the first time since 1995 when a Steve Spurrier led squad lost in the Hall of Fame Bowl to Wisconsin, 34-20.  This year’s squad has shown resiliency and the ability to rebound in the face of tribulation.  To become bowl-eligible, the Blue Devils stormed out of the gates and won 6 of their first 8 games.  Along the way, Duke beat teams like Wake Forest, Virginia, and arch-rival North Carolina to secure their 6th win and post-season opportunity.  However, Duke has hit a rough patch losing 5 of their last 6, many of those against the upper echelon of the ACC, teams like Florida State, Clemson, Georgia Tech, and Miami.  The Belk Bowl will give the Blue Devils a chance to end their season on a high note as well as allow them to beat one of the Big East’s best teams in Cincinnati.

In the regular season, Duke was in the middle of the pack in the ACC in total offense averaging nearly 400 yards per game.  The Blue Devils were led senior QB Sean Renfree.  Renfree was 3rd in the ACC in completion percentage, completing more than 66% of his 392 attempts.  That led to him passing for 2755 yards, 18 TDs and only 8 INTs.  With Renfree at the helm, its little wonder why Duke was able to win 6 games!

In leading the nation’s 32 ranked passing offense at over 277 yards per game, Sean Renfree has to have some good receivers, and he does.  Led by sophomore Jamison Crowder who reeled in 70 passes this season for 1025 yards and 8 TDs.  Alongside Crowder are senior Connor Vernon who hauled in 75 passes for nearly 1000 yards and 7 scores and senior Desmond Scott who caught 61 passes and scored twice.  Look for Renfree to target these players early and often for a Blue Devils team that is more adept at passing then they are running.

On defense, Duke is second-to-last in the ACC in total defense surrendering 462.1 yards per game and a league-worst 35.0 points per game.  The Blue Devils will need to turn things around if they are going to beat Munchie Legaux and the Cincinnati Bearcats.  For Duke, its starts up front with senior DL Kenny Anunike who led the team with 5 sacks getting pressure and forcing Legaux outside of the pocket.  On the back-end, senior DB Walt Canty was 5th in the ACC in tackles and junior DB Ross Cockrell was tied for the conference lead in interceptions with 5.  If these three players can come up big for Duke, they have a chance of capping off a tremendous season.

Of note: Duke enters the Belk Bowl on a 4-game losing streak.  The Belk Bowl is played in Charlotte, NC which should lend itself to a de facto home game atmosphere for the Blue Devils.

Cincinnati Game Preview:

Cincinnati enters the Belk Bowl riding a 2-game winning streak.  But, it may be the losses in 2012 that more defines the Bearcats than the wins.  Cincinnati twice had the opportunity to win the Big East title and twice they lost crucial games.  Their first Big East loss was at Louisville on a cold, rainy Friday night (34-31 in OT).  That loss came on the heels of their first loss of the season to an upstart Toledo team.  Cincinnati was able to regroup and win their next two in a row before being upended once again by Big East runner-up Rutgers (10-3).  Cincinnati finished out the season strong, and now enters the Belk Bowl with a chance to have four consecutive 10-win seasons.

On offense, the Bearcats were one of the most potent teams in the Big East in 2012.  They were tied for the conference lead in scoring offense averaging 31.0 points per game, and they finished second only to Syracuse in total offense averaging 430.8 yards per game.  The flow of the offense ran through junior QB Munchie Legaux.  Besides having one of the coolest names in college football, Legaux was able to keep the Bearcats offense in stride all season.  While Legaux’s passing numbers don’t paint a picture of someone who would be efficient in leading the nation’s 44th rated total offense, his poise in the pocket and his cool demeanor were just one reason why the Bearcats were able to knockoff Virginia Tech on a last-second TD.

The focus of the Bearcats offense is on senior RB George Winn.  Winn eclipsed the 1200 yards rushing mark this season along with scoring 12 TDs.  The Cincinnati rushing attack was so prolific that they were second, only to Temple, in the Big East in rushing offense, averaging nearly 200 yards of rushing offense per game.  When Winn isn’t toting the rock, look for sophomore Ralph Abernathy to spell him.  Abernathy had a decent 2012 campaign himself rushing for more than 350 yards and 3 scores while also catching 25 passes for almost 300 yards and 3 TDs.  Of course, Legaux’s dual-threat capabilities are just one more reason why he has been such a great leader for Cincinnati.  Legaux was the third leading rusher on the team going off for 355 yards and 4 scores.  No doubt, the Blue Devils will have their hands full trying to stop the Cincinnati rushing game!

Of note: For the Belk Bowl, Cincinnati will be coached by interim head coach and DL coach Steve Stripling.  Next year, the Bearcats will be coached by Tommy Tuberville.

Prediction:

Duke – 30

Cincinnati – 34

Penn State, while ineligible for post-season play, also has something to play for in Saturday’s contest; they are one win shy of clinching a winning season in coach O’Brien’s first year.  While many Penn State fans may find a winning season to simply be unacceptable, I feel that with all that the current team has been through, a winning season is truly remarkable!  In fact, Joe Paterno didn’t even enjoy a winning season his first year (1966: 5-5).

Penn State and Indiana haven’t exactly shared a storied tradition that other Big Ten teams like Ohio State, Michigan, or even Nebraska have shared with Penn State.  In fact, the Nittany Lions have never lost to the Hoosiers (0-15) since joining the Big Ten in 1993.  While the series may be one-sided, many of the games have held their intrigue until the final few moments.  Arguably the most important Penn State win of the early 2000′s took place at Indiana in 2004.  Tom Bradley’s defense came up with an epic goal line stand to preserve a 22-18 win.  That game coupled with a win over Michigan State the following week helped propel the Lions the Orange Bowl the following season.

Make no mistake, the Hoosiers are no pushovers!  They have talent at nearly every skill position on both sides of the ball.  On offense, the leader of the group is sophomore quarterback Cameron Coffman.  He came off the bench to replace the injured Tre Roberson is week #2.  Since then Coffman has shown the rest of the conference what kind of talent he is in Bloomington.  The Hoosiers rushing attack is spearheaded by Stephen Houston who has over 580 yards rushing and 9 scores on the season.  On the outside, Indiana possesses some skilled receivers.  Player like Cody Latimer, Shane Wynn, and Kofi Hughes, not to mention All-Big Ten TE candidate Ted Bolser.  On the year, those four have combines for nearly 150 catches, over 2,000 yards receiving, and 16 TDs.  With numbers like those, it’s little wonder why Indiana leads the Big Ten in passing offense!

On defense, the Hoosiers strength is up the defensive middle.  On the defensive line they are led by senior DT Adam Replogle.  If the name rings a bell, that’s because his brother Tyler (2010 graduate) was a stand-out linebacker for the Hoosiers.  Alongside Replogle is fellow DT Larry Black, Jr.  On the season, both have combined for 7.5 sacks and 18.0 tackles for loss.  At the linebacker spot, Indiana has features a player that ranks in the top 16 of the Big Ten in tackles.  Sophomore David Cooper has 71 tackles on the season.  Look out for him flying around Saturday afternoon.  In the defensive secondary, Indiana’s two free safeties, junior Greg Heban and sophomore Mark Murphy, are very good at tackling.  Heban is the leading tackler for the Hoosiers (71) and leads the Big Ten in tackles for defensive backs, while Murphy has added 59 tackles of his own.

Penn State will certainly have their hands full when the Hoosiers come to Happy Valley this weekend.  They can not take this team for granted or they will rue the day!  In order for the Nittany Lions to come out this game victorious, continue reading to find out my keys to the game.

This week I want to tackle (no pun intended!) a more difficult topic and look at individual players across the country that have underperformed or overperformed based on what pre-season hype had indicated.  Certainly this is very subjective and many players will be left off the list in both categories, but I thought it might be fun to see who may or may not have met expectations.

Underachievers:

Nov 8, 2012; Blacksburg, VA, USA; Virginia Tech Hokies quarterback Logan Thomas (3) looks to pass in the second quarter at Lane Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Bob Donnan-US PRESSWIRE

Logan Thomas – QB Virginia Tech:

The Hokies were supposed to contend for the ACC title and possibly even a national title.  Those hopes went out the window early this season, and the once formidable Hokies are playing for their post-season lives.  Part of the reason they have struggled to win games this year is the lack-luster play of their junior signal caller Logan Thomas.

Thomas was expected to be one the ACC’s leading passers, and while he 7th in the league in passing yards per game, he has been too inconsistent, especially in the bigger games.  Even more shocking is his inability to lead his team back when they are trailing.

On the season Thomas has thrown for 2,407 yards but his completion percentage is a mere 53.6% (171/319).  He has thrown 14 TDs, but he has also thrown for 14 INTs.  A 1:1 TD-to-INT ratio is not going to get it done for a team that should have at least won the ACC’s Coastal Division.

While much of the season has passed, Thomas can still prove that 2012 is not a harbinger of things to come.  His team needs to win its final two games to make it to a bowl.  The games are winnable (Boston College and Virginia), but to do so, Thomas will have to be the leader that head coach Frank Beamer and the rest of the Hokies know that they have in their midst.

Oct 13, 2012; Seattle, WA, USA; Southern California Trojans tailback Silas Redd (25) carries the ball against the Washington Huskies at CenturyLink Field. USC defeated Washington 24-14. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee/Image of Sport-US PRESSWIRE

Silas Redd – RB USC:

Many that read this article will assume that I’m placing Redd on this list simply out of spite, seeing he spurned the Nittany Lions after their sanctions to go to the seemingly lavish lifestyle of the USC Trojans and a shot at the national title.  Well, I can tell you that is not the case!

If we compare stats from this year to his stats from last year at Penn State, you will find in most statistical categories his numbers have receded from where they were at one year ago.  In 2011 for Penn State, Redd rushed 244 times for 1,241 yards.  He averaged 5.1 yards per carry and scored 7 TDs.  This year for USC, Redd has carries the ball only 135 times for 732 yards.  His average per carry is slightly better at 5.4 ypc, and his number of rushing TDs are modestly up (9).  At neither Penn State nor USC has Redd been used as a pass-catching back.

Some of the disparity in the numbers is the type of offense that Penn State and USC run and the personnel that each teams possesses, but in the end, Redd has not turned out to be the dynamic running back that Lane Kiffin can give the ball to and ride for an entire game.  This year alone Redd has only had two games where he has carried the ball 20 times or more.  in 2011 at Penn State, he had 5 games where he toted the rock 20 times or more.  In fact he carried the ball 30 times against Illinois.

Redd has begun ceding carries to senior Curtis McNeal.  In the Trojans’ last game against Arizona State, Redd was unable to play due to injury.  McNeal rushed 31 times for 163 yards and 2 scores.  Redd is questionable this week against rival UCLA.  What isn’t questionable is Redd’s lack of game-changing bursts.  To be sure, Redd is a fine running back that nearly every team in the country would love to have on their roster.  However, he is not the difference-maker that USC thought they were getting when he agreed to transfer in August.

November 10, 2012; Ann Arbor, MI, USA; Michigan Wolverines running back Fitzgerald Toussaint (28) runs the ball for a touchdown against the Northwestern Wildcats in the third quarter at Michigan Stadium. Michigan won 38-31 in overtime. Mandatory Credit: Rick Osentoski-US PRESSWIRE

Fitzgerald Toussaint – RB Michigan

Fitzgerald Toussaint was supposed to be the next workhorse back for the Wolverines, taking some of the pressure to run ball from Denard Robinson.  One problem – someone forgot to tell Fitzy that he was supposed to do that.  Toussaint has been virtually invisible in most of Michigan’s games this year.  He has not amassed a 100-yard rushing game in any one of his contests this year, though he was close this past Saturday against Northwestern (95 yards), and he has a little over half of the rushing scores (5) that he had all of last year (9).

Toussaint started off 2012 on suspension from an off-season off the field arrest.  He therefore missed the Alabama game, but he has played in every game since.  His number of rushes should be about the same as they were last year, but his offensive output will be well below what he did last season.  Last year he was a 1,000 yard back, but this year he will likely be lucky to get to 700 yards rushing.  He has done a tad more in the passing game than last year, but the numbers are fairly comparable.

To me it doesn’t look like Toussaint is running downhill as much as he was last year.  Last season he could get to the second level by punishing defensive lineman and linebackers on his way to big gains.  This year, those linemen are able to corral him at or near the line of scrimmage.  His longest run of 2012 was a 50-yard gainer and that was last week.  The explosiveness just doesn’t seem to be there this year, and that has really hurt Michigan.

The Wolverines are still one of the better team in the Big Ten because of Denard Robinson and the much-improved play of their defense, but most teams are not scared of Michigan because they are so one-dimensional.  Michigan will likely step up in class come bowl season and play a team that will be better than they are.  How Michigan can involve Toussaint in the gameplan and his effectiveness will go a long way in determining how Michigan fares.

November 10, 2012; Berkeley, CA, USA; Oregon Ducks quarterback Marcus Mariota (8) celebrates with running back Byron Marshall (9) after a touchdown against the California Golden Bears during the first quarter at Memorial Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kelley L Cox-US PRESSWIRE

It’s hard to believe, but the 2012 college football regular season is winding down.  Only 2-3 more weeks to go until the season is over, conference titles have been awarded, and bowl games have been set.  Even though time is running out, there is still a lot of intrigue left in many of the conference races.  Many teams still have a game or two that could change the landscape of their season and in the conference they play.

As the season draws to a close, the hot topic is who deserves to play in the BCS title game?  Most would agree that if Kansas State and Oregon win out, they are the likely to be the teams to battle it out for the title.  However, if either one of those slips, Notre Dame looks like they are ready to pounce on a title shot.  Some, though, still want to put Alabama in the title game, seeing as they are still considered the cream of the crop in the SEC (Georgia may have something to say about that though).  I read a tweet last night that said a Vegas site still would have Alabama favored over any team in the nation on a neutral site, including Oregon where the Crimson Tide would be a 1-point favorite.

While we wait for the new college playoff format to be implemented in 2014, we still must discuss the merits and drawbacks of all the teams and hope that the BCS formula, the Florida State head coach Jimbo Fisher is not enamored with, gets it right.

My assertion is this, if you don’t win your conference, then you are ineligible to win the national title, PERIOD!  Yes, I know that would eliminate the Georgia-Alabama loser as well as Kansas State, if they somehow don’t manage to hold onto the Big 12 lead, and Oregon if they were to lose the Pac-12 title.  My reasoning is simple…if you aren;t good enough to win the league you are in, how can you be the best team in college football?!?!  For you Notre Dame fans that say you aren;t in a conference, I would add a stipulation that says if you are an independent, you can still play in and win the national title if you have a pre-season strength of schedule rating of ‘x’ and you are ranked in the top-2 at the regular season’s end.  I would certainly say that if Notre Dame finished unbeaten this year, they would have met me qualifications and should definitely be included in national title talk.

What my rule would eliminate though is teams like Alabama from last year, somehow getting into the title game against LSU, when they didn’t even win the SEC title, in fact, they didn’t even play for it!  Whether the Tide eventually beat the Tigers on a neutral field someone dubbed the “BCS Title Game” is irrelevant.  When Alabama had their chance to beat LSU last year they lost.  End of story!  How do they get a second bite at the apple, win the game, and now they are somehow more superior than a team they lost to, just doesn’t jive with me.  I don’t hear any talk coming out of Baton Rouge that says we should play Alabama again this year, just to see who’s better.  Why not?  Because LSU had their shot, and they came up just short.  That’s they way the cookie crumbles in life.  The fact that Alabama got a pass, and could not only play for the title, but also win it, to me, is a travesty in college football.

Hopefully with the new playoff system coming on-line in 2014, we can eventually get things right and have the “best team” in college football, actually be that – the best team!

I think the majority of the nation would agree that if Alabama wins their remaining games (Texas A&M, West Carolina, Auburn, SEC title game), they are as much of a lock to go to Miami as any of the unbeaten teams.  Alabama survived a scare in Death Valley this past weekend, only to see the finish line in front of them.  They need to be careful though because Texas A&M and their super freshman Johnny Manziel could present a bit of a problem for a defense that was definitely worn down by games end last week.  Assuming Alabama gets past the Aggies, I would expect smooth sailing until the reach the SEC title game, most likely against Georgia.  In the end, it would seem the number-1 team in the country controls their own destiny to get to the title game.

Oregon would now seem like the most likely partner for Alabama in the title game.  Chip Kelly’s squad is an offensive juggernaut to say the least.  I’m not even sure video games set on the easiest level could match the offensive output that the Ducks are capable of getting.  Oregon literally outscored USC Saturday night in the Coliseum.  USC really didn’t play that bad of a game yet they lost by double digits and gave up 62 points.  In fact, Oregon has scored at least 42 points in every game they have played thus far (Oregon leads the nations in average points scored per game with 54.3).  The remaining games for the Ducks include @ Cal, Stanford, @ Oregon State, Pac-12 Title game.  Of the undefeated top-5 teams, Oregon has the toughest remaining schedule, but winning out will also improve their strength of schedule enough that they should be able to leapfrog Kansas State in the BCS rankings.  At this point, some wagering sites have listed Alabama as a 4-point favorite over Oregon right now.  Interesting!

Kansas State is playing some of its best football right now.  Wildcats quarterback Collin Klein, nicknamed Optimus Klein, has not only given his team a shot at the national title, but also he has given himself a chance at the Heisman Trophy.  Klein left Saturday night’s game against Oklahoma State with what is believed to be concussion-like symptoms.  Early reports out of Manhattan say he is doing well and is likely to play this weekend.  Kansas State plays a tough schedule to end the year @ TCU, @ Baylor, Texas).  The bonus / problem for Kansas State is that there is no Big 12 title game.  Many teams, especially those in conferences like the Big Ten prior to last year, used to loathe the fact that their season was over in November while other teams played either into December or had conference championship games with which to impress voters.  Kansas State will essentially be done at the end of November.  So, while the Wildcats only have to win 3 more games to finish unbeaten, they also won’t have a chance to impress voters after that either.  It would seem that unless either Oregon or Alabama loses or has a poor showing, Kansas State will be left out of the national title picture.

Finally, Notre Dame would present the longest odds of making the title game out the four top-rated undefeated teams.  The Irish have been a breath of fresh air this season as their magical run to an unbeaten season continues.  The Irish were fortunate to remain without a loss after a 14-point come-from-behind victory over Pittsburgh this past weekend.  Notre Dame took advantage of the Panthers miscues and made the plays they had to in order to come out on top.  Unfortunately for Notre Dame and their fans, the Irish’s strength of schedule, compared to the other top teams is likely to go down.  Notre Dame’s remaining schedule looks like this: @ Boston College, Wake Forest, @ USC.  Most certainly voters will be tuning in to see how the Irish are able to do out in SoCal, but they are in a no-win spot by playing Boston College and Wake Forest.  If they win by large margins, well, they were supposed to do that.  If they lose, that’s even worse.  Close games are also no good for a team that really needs to impress voters.  While Notre Dame has had a remarkable season, one that many outside the program did not think was possible this year, I just don’t see how Notre Dame makes the title game without both Oregon and Kansas State losing a game along the way.

Some other teams that have title game aspirations would be the Georgia Bulldogs and Ohio State Buckeyes.  For Georgia its clear that their only shot at getting to the title game is to win the SEC title over an undefeated Alabama team as well as having two of the three other unbeatens (Kansas State, Oregon, Notre Dame) lose a game.  While that is not impossible, it does seem like a stretch.

Ohio State presents an interesting case because they are under NCAA sanctions.  As such, they are ineligible to participate in a bowl game as well as assume a ranking in the USA Today Coaches Poll and BCS rankings.  How can Ohio State win the national title then?  Well, they are still ranked 5th in the latest AP poll and if Alabama, Oregon, Kansas State, and Notre Dame all lose prior to the bowl games, it could be possible an undefeated Ohio State team gets the nod as national champion.  It seems unlikely a split national champion would be crowned, but that is why college football is unique and exciting.

So, with the college football’s regular season winding down, the intrigue and the excitement is just heating up.  Time and time again I hear about November games are what separate the title contenders from the pretenders.  It seems like this year is just another example where that adage is proven correct.  I can’t wait to see what’s going to happen as we come down the stretch.

OK, before we take a look at the games we have on tap for week #11, let’s quickly take a look back at how my “prime-3″ games and extra points picks for week#9 fared (Sorry I missed last week!).

For Full Disclosure:

“Prime-3″ Picks from week #9 – 1-2 ATS, 0-3 SU.  On the season, my record stands at 13-14 ATS, and 14-13 SU.

Extra Points Picks (ATS) from last week – 12-10-0.  On the season, my record stands at 82-61-2.

…As always, I will try and do better this week!

“Prime-3 Games”:

In this week’s installment of “prime-3″, we will turn our attention to the number-1 team in the country and see how they fare after their emotional win last week.  We will then look at a game pitting two Pac-12 North teams, and finally we delve into a Big Ten match-up that will have Legend’s Division title implications.

We start with a look at some key match-ups involving the #15 Texas A&M Aggies and #1 Alabama Crimson Tide.  We then shift our focus out west as Pac-12 teams #11 Oregon State and #14 Stanford duke it out for 2nd place in the Pac-12′s Northern Division. Finally, we look at a Big Ten tilt that has Legend’s Division ramifications.  The Penn State Nittany Lions travel to Lincoln to do battle with the #16 Nebraska Cornhuskers.

And, without further ado, let’s get to the “Prime-3″ games!

Nebraska has three games remaining including Saturday’s showdown with Penn State.  If Nebraska can win Saturday, they should be able to win out and claim the Legend’s division half of the Big Ten championship game.  Penn State, though, won’t be a pushover, and coach Bo Pelini knows it.  Nebraska has one of the most potent offenses in the Big Ten, but coach Pelini knows that the Cornhuskers have to sure up their defense to keep Penn State from scoring.  High scoring affairs against UCLA and Ohio State haven’t gone the way of the Huskers.

Under the old Penn State regime, a game like this would elicit thoughts of ball-control running and clock management.  No doubt Penn State wants to limit the number of times Nebraska quarterback Taylor Martinez has the ball, but they are going to have to score in order to win this game.  Penn State will take their chances through the air, but they will have to be more physical than the Cornhuskers secondary in order to be successful.

Continue reading to find out what are my keys to the game as Penn State takes on Nebraska.

It turns out that there are 35 bowl games to be played in the months of December and January.  That means 70 of the 124 FBS schools will be playing in a post-season contest.  However, of the 124 we must exclude teams like Penn State, Ohio State, and North Carolina as they have been disqualified from bowl game participation due to NCAA sanctions.  Now we are down to 121 eligible FBS schools (57.8% will play in bowl games this year).

In order to be eligible for a bowl game, a team must win at least 50% of their games which turns out to be 6 wins (there are some NCAA loopholes that will allow an under .500 team to make a bowl game, but it is a rarity).  To date, 27 schools, not including the ineligible teams, have already played themselves OUT of post-season play by having an under-.500 record, and 48 have already stamped their passes for a bowl game.  So, we have 46 remaining eligible teams playing for 22 open spots.

If you are still dizzy over the math, that’s fine.  Simply put, most teams do go to the post-season.  Nearly all the bowl games are played in mid-December or later so the extra practice time for teams, especially for younger players, is an invaluable springboard for the next year.  Besides, the extra practice time and a chance to go to warmer climates (at least in most cases), the schools reap a whirlwind of extra cash for their athletic budgets.  Many schools rely on their football team to provide the necessary funding for the other intercollegiate sports to excel.  All but a few schools are capable to work in the counter.  Football really is the life-blood of an FBS school’s athletic budget.

So, while 70 teams will be enjoying extra practice time, a trip to a more tropical paradise, and a monetary windfall, there will be 24 teams left out in the cold to wonder “what if” and dwell on that going into the 2013 season.

As I mentioned earlier, I want to use this segment to examine a few surprise teams.  Teams that may not make a bowl that we would typically associate as playing in the post-season, and those teams that may go bowling that usually do not.

So without further ado, let’s see who we’ve got!

Free Falling!

Nov 1, 2012; Miami, FL, USA; Virginia Tech Hokies running back Tony Gregory (22) runs against Miami Hurricanes during their game at Sun Life Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Steve Mitchell-US PRESSWIRE

Virginia Tech Hokies

Current Record: 4-5

Remaining Schedule:  H – Florida State, @ Boston College, H – Virginia

Likelihood of making a bowl:  90%

The Hokies are such an odd team this year.  I recall there opening game against Georgia Tech that came down to the final play in OT before Va Tech came away with the win.  They were on such a roll until they were stopped by a marginal Pitt team and then by an unranked Cincinnati Bearcat team.  Perhaps most puzzling is how a Frank Beamer-coached team could be out-worked, out-hustled, and out-coached on defense and special teams, two areas that Virginia Tech usually excels.

Florida State comes to Blacksburg to pay a visit this Thursday night.  Typically the Seminoles and the Hokies are playing for the ACC crown and a berth in a BCS bowl, but not this year for the Hokies.  Va Tech needs to win 2 of their remaining 3 games to qualify for the post-season.  A loss to Florida State on Thursday means that the Hokies can not win the ACC’s Coastal Division, and it puts their bowl aspirations on the brink, but Va Tech does end the year with very winnable games.  They have to travel to Boston College and play Virginia in their end-of-the-year rivalry game.

Even though chances are decent that Virginia Tech will lose Thursday night, they still should have a very good shot at making a bowl game this year.

Predicted Finish:  6-6

Key Question & Answer:  Does Virginia Tech make a bowl game?  Yes

Nov. 3, 2012; Bloomington, IN, USA; Iowa Hawkeyes running back Damon Bullock (32) during the fourth quarter against the Indiana Hoosiers at Memorial Stadium. Indiana defeated Iowa 24-21. Mandatory Credit: Jerry Schultheiss-US PRESSWIRE

Iowa Hawkeyes

Current Record: 4-5

Remaining Schedule:  H – Purdue, @ Michigan, H – Nebraska

Likelihood of making a bowl:  20-30%

It’s very likely that Iowa lost their shot at getting to a bowl game with their defeat at Indiana last week.  The Hawkeyes must win 2 of their last 3 games in order to qualify, and that will be no easy task considering they have yet to play the likes of Michigan and Nebraska.  Iowa coach Kirk Ferentz has struggled to piece together enough offense to keep his Hawkeye team in most games.  Luckily for him, the defense has been above average.  The Hawkeyes best wins have come against the MAC’s Northern Illinois (their only loss so far) and against Michigan State.

After the win against the Spartans, the Hawkeyes were sitting at 2-0 in the Legend’s Division and were poised to make a run at the division crown.  Penn State soundly beat them the following week and things have not been the same in Iowa City since.  Iowa has lost two more games and 3 straight to put a bowl opportunity in serious jeopardy.

To be fair, Iowa has dealt with more than their fair share of injuries, especially at the running back position.  I have no idea what number they are on, but its safe to say whatever number it is, they probably weren’t on coach Ferentz’s original depth chart.

The Hawkeye’s defense has been a bright spot for the team.  They are ranked 29th nationally in points allowed, giving up an average of 21.4 points per game.  Secondary players like Micah Hyde and Greg Castillo have made it difficult for opposing wide receivers to get open.

At this point, the way Iowa has been playing of late, I would expect that they have a legitimate chance of beating Purdue, but asking them to then beat either Michigan or Nebraska who are both playing for a shot to get the Big Ten’s title game, might be asking a bit much from this Iowa Hawkeyes squad.

Predicted Finish:  5-7

Key Question & Answer:  Does Iowa make a bowl game?  No

November 02, 2012; Berkeley, CA, USA; California Golden Bears quarterback Zach Maynard (15) looks for an open receiver against the Washington Huskies during the second quarter at Memorial Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kelley L Cox-US PRESSWIRE

California Golden Bears

Current Record: 3-7

Remaining Schedule:  H – Oregon, @ Oregon State

Likelihood of making a bowl:  0%

What was once a promising outlook for the Cal Bears and head coach Jeff Tedford has turned into a nightmare as the Bears can’t seem to get out of their own way.  The Bears have lost 3 in a row and 6 of their last 8 games.  They were eliminated from post-season play before the calendar have turned to November.  While Tedford is one of the nation’s best recruiters (i.e. recruited Aaron Rodgers and Jahvid Best), he has been unable to turn that talent into a winning football program with any consistency.

The Bears had such high hopes for the season as they were moving back in to their newly refurbished Memorial Stadium.  So, how did they kick off the new stadium – that’s right, with a loss to Nevada.  Now Nevada is actually a decent football team this year, but Cal is supposed to win games like that.  Cal followed up that loss by losing 3 of their next 4 games including a heart-breaker at Ohio State and at USC.

The Bears looked like they may have righted the ship with a modest 2-game winning streak including a win over 25th ranked UCLA, but their misfortunes returned and are currently stuck in 3-game losing streak.  The streak is likely to extend as the #2 Oregon Ducks come calling to Berkeley this weekend.  The Bears mercifully end their campaign next weekend when they travel to Corvallis to take on the Oregon State Beavers.

Could this be coach Tedford’s last season at the helm of the Bears?  Many think it may be time for a change, but he can still draw in nationally ranked recruits, and as long as top-notch players are still willing to come to your school, then you always have a chance to make things better quickly.  We’ll see if he is afforded the opportunity to make things better next year.

Predicted Finish:  3-9

Key Question & Answer:  Does head coach Jeff Tedford get fired?  Yes

Honorable Mentions:  Georgia Tech, Michigan State, West Virginia, Baylor, Tennessee, Missouri, Arkansas, Auburn, Virginia

At first glance, this may look like an easy Penn State victory.  Both teams appear headed in opposite directions.  Penn State has won 5 of 6 games while Purdue has lost 4 straight.  After Saturday’s game, Purdue will play two of its remaining three games on the road.  They will need to win 3 of their last 4 games just to qualify for post-season play.  Penn State still has a shot at a 9-win season which would be truly remarkable considering all that has transpired over the last year in Happy Valley.

This week, Purdue AD Morgan Burke issued a one-paragraph missive to head football coach Danny Hope and his Boilermakers football team.  In part, the statement read, “Everyone around our football program has high expectations for the 2012 season.  Our student-athletes, alumni, fans, coaching staff, and administration all expect to see the program move forward and take a step up the postseason ladder.  Currently, our performance has kept us from reaching our goals…”

If that isn’t a thinly-veiled directive at Coach Hope to get his troops moving in the right direction, then I don’t know what is!  So, with AD Burke’s statement setting the tenor for this week, coach Hope decided to bench starting QB Caleb TerBush in favor of redshirt senior Robert Marve.  Marve has played in all but three games this year and has thrown 6 TDs against only 2 INTs.  Marve certainly isn’t the dual-threat QB that TerBush is, but he is a more accurate and effective passer.

Besides the change at quarterback, Purdue has slowly and carefully been working senior running back Ralph Bolden back into the picture.  Bolden sat out the first five games as he was rehabbing his knee from an ACL tear that occurred last season.  While Bolden is not the workhorse he once was, he is a nice change of pace compliment to featured back Akeem Shavers.  Shavers has 432 yards rushing and 3 TDs, but he hasn’t scored a rushing touchdown since September 29th against Marshall.

On the outside, Purdue boast one of the most unheralded and talented wide receivers in the Big Ten, Antavian Edison.  His six receiving scores are good for 3rd in the Big Ten while his 38 receptions are tied for 5th with his teammate O.J. Ross.

So, while Penn State should have a defensive advantage in this game, Purdue has enough skilled offensive weapons to be able to put up some points in this game.  On the defensive side the Boilermakers rank 11th in the Big Ten in total defense and they rank 10th in scoring defense.  But, don’t let that foo you.  This team has been tough against two of this year’s marquee teams – Notre Dame and Ohio State.  Against the Irish it took a late scoring drive for Notre Dame to pull out the 20-17 win, and it took a last-second miracle drive by Ohio State to pull out a 29-22 OT win.

Now, with their backs up against the wall, the Boilermakers need to put together their best game of the year or risk not making a bowl game since 2010 when they last their last 6 games of the season.  Might the same thing be happening again this year?

Keep reading to find out what my keys to a Penn State victory at Purdue are for Saturday:

As most are aware, neither Penn State nor Ohio State will be going to the post-season due to NCAA sanctions.  Many have dubbed this game the Ineligi-Bowl or the Sanctions Bowl, but even so, this game has a lot riding on it.  Both teams want to be able to say they were the best team in the Legend’s Division in 2012.  While Wisconsin may be the division’s representative, most people would agree that Penn State and Ohio State are the two best teams right now.

Penn State head coach Bill O’Brien has his team hitting on all cylinders coming into this game.  Last week the team put on an impressive display out in Iowa City as they carved up the Hawkeyes, a place they hadn’t won since 1999.  Behind a dazzling display of running and passing the ball, Penn State wore down the Hawkeyes on both sides of the ball.  Coming into the game, much of the scuttlebutt was about whether running back Mark Weisman would even dress.  Indeed he did dress and actually saw a few snaps, but it made no difference.  The Nittany Lions were on a mission to erase the ghosts of the past, much the same way they are trying to do this week against Ohio State

A stat worth mentioning is that Ohio State has not lost back-to-back conference games to an opponent since ’03-’04 when the Wisconsin Badgers were able to pull off the feat.  This year, Michigan State, Nebraska, and Purdue have all had a crack at the repeat, but were unable to pull it off.  Next up…Penn State.  Can the Nittany Lions pull off a second-consecutive win against Ohio State?  The last time Penn State won 2 straight over Ohio State was 1978 and 1980 (pre-Penn State Big Ten days).  Since Penn State has joined the Big Ten, Ohio State and Penn State have battled it out 19 times and Ohio State leads the series 12-7.

For Penn State to pull off the win, keep reading to see what my keys to the game are.

Let me first try on something from the Scarlet and Grey closet.  Let me see…perhaps I should go as former Ohio State coach Jim Tressel?  Hmmm, I definitely have enough sweater vests that I could don, but I don’t think I own any that look as horrible as the ones he used to wear.  Take a look, eeh gads!!!:

He’s probably about my height, and I think I can get down the walk.  But, one problem remains, I don’t know how I should portray his ability to inform his players on the best way to liquidate their Big Ten memorabilia?  Do I tell them where the best pawn shop in Columbus is or do I tell them in pig-Latin, “ooh-yay ood-shay o-gay ere-thay.”  Oh, I know, I could tell Ohio State President E. Gordon Gee and he could help us out.  That’s right, he’s not that bright when it comes to speaking is he?  Nah, well, darn it, I’m not sure trying to be Coach Tressel for Halloween is going to work out for me.  I just don’t have the pedigree of treachery and deceit that he has.  It would take me years to learn all of that!  Alas, I’m resigned to finding another costume for the Saturday’s big game!

Perhaps I can go as Woody Hayes!  The man was a football genius, so I fit right in there with that, right?!?!  I definitely have a palpable dislike for the maize and blue.  BTW, I thought maize was a type of corn, not a color?  At any rate, I’m sure I can find a floppy chapeau like his to wear to the game, a cute little beanie for my chrome dome!  My only problem with going as Coach Hayes is my lack of a good uppercut!  I know, Coach Hayes didn’t seem to have one, but it looks like he had a pretty good right cross though, just ask Clemson’s Charlie Bauman.

No matter, I know I could learn some pugilistic techniques at some of the awesome PSU tailgates that will be going on this weekend, so I know I could be a good Woody Hayes.  Well, then again, hand-to-hand combat was never something I was very good at, so perhaps I ought to look in a different direction.  I know…I can go as current Ohio State head coach Urban Meyer.

Now, don’t get me wrong, I do like and respect Coach Meyer because he is very well-versed in teaching football, but even more importantly, he is a man of true faith and places his family values above his coaching desires.  Those are characteristics that I can respect no matter what colors he wears!  However, I do have trouble supporting his adult film industry look!  If you don’t know what I’m talking about, take a look at his appearances as a Colorado State and Ohio State assistant coach.

Doesn’t that just say everything you need to know about coach Meyer before becoming the great and powerful Oz that he is today!  The only thing missing from Coach Meyer in this picture is what his adult film name was.  I could throw out a few, but this is a respectable site, and I don’t want to sully the waters with such minutiae.  So, since I don’t think I want to have to go through my Halloween having to explain why I’m dressed as an adult film star, I think we should just move on shall we?

Maybe trying to go as one an Ohio State coach just isn’t my cup of tea.  I’ve got it, I can go as one of the Penn State coaches.  I guess there aren’t many to choose from.

I could go as former Penn State assistant coach Jerry San…never mind!  Moving on…

Maybe I can go as the winningest division 1 college football coach of all-time.  No, I’m not talking about Bobby Bowden.  He can take his vacated wins and shove them up Renegade’s horsey’s rear end!  I’m talking about former PSU coach Joe Paterno.

Again, I have the glasses but not the Harry Caray Coke-bottle type.  But, dang, trying to go as an octogenarian and in a blue sports jacket is going to be a little difficult fore me to pull off.  I know I can coach the team from my seats in Beaver Stadium about as well as he was the last few years of his tenure in Happy Valley (It doesn’t matter who was really in charge of the team, it was just seeing Joe’s presence on the sidelines that made it all worth while).  My biggest challenge will be trying to pull of his squeaky voice in a Brooklyn accent.  Many have tried, but few have duplicated this awesome feat.  Since I am likely to lose my voice during the big game Saturday night, maybe I should look in one final direction.

Should I go as Coach O’Brien’s friendly ghost?  Well, if I do that, I ‘m going to have to grow a dimple in my chin, shave off my facial hair, and develop a new twitter account, “@reallyreallyevilbillobrien”.  I already have the no-hair thing working, so there’s a plus on my side.  At any rate, my ability to pump up the troops like he does might suffer, and I think I would have to grow a bit taller to be like the genuine article, but none-the-less, the blue and white colors, I think, really fit my style!

Oh drats, it looks like 110,000 of my closest friends have already picked up on the idea to dress in white and go as coach O’Brien’s ghost for Saturday night’s game.  Looks like I’ll just have to blend in with the rest of Nittany Nation and salute the boys in the Blue in White!

Happy Halloween everybody!  Be safe and enjoy Trick or Treating…even if you are from Ohio!

OK, before we take a look at the games we have on tap for week #9, let’s quickly take a look back at how my “prime-3″ games and extra points picks for week#8 fared.

For Full Disclosure:

“Prime-3″ Picks from last week – 3-0 ATS, 3-0 SU.  On the season, my record stands at 12-12 ATS, and 14-10 SU.

Extra Points Picks (ATS) from last week – 15-9-0.  On the season, my record stands at 70-51-2.

…As always, I will try and do better this week!

“Prime-3 Games”:

In this week’s installment of “prime-3″, our attention is drawn to three interesting match-ups that have national as well as personal implications.  We will look at a game pitting two SEC teams, one that involves a church and a Big 12 team, and finally we delve into a titanic clash in the Big Ten.  We will look at some key match-ups in the showdown dubbed the World’s Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party involving the #10 Georgia Bulldogs and the #2 Florida Gators.  We then shift our focus to ABC’s prime time tilt between the #5 Notre Dame Fighting Irish as they look to remain unbeaten as they head into Norman Oklahoma to do battle with the #6 Oklahoma Sooners. Finally, we look at a classic that is near and dear to my heart, the Big 33 Clash between the Ohio State Buckeyes and the student-driven Whiteout of the Penn State Nittany Lions.

And, without further ado, let’s get to the “Prime-3″ games!

As we look forward to the games of week #9, let’s take a look at some of the teams that are trending up and trending down.

Free Falling!

October 20, 2012; Morgantown, WV, USA; West Virginia Mountaineers fan reacts as he watches the game against the Kansas State Wildcats during the fourth quarter at Milan Puskar Stadium. The Kansas State Wildcats won 55-14. Mandatory Credit: Charles LeClaire-US PRESSWIRE

West Virginia Mountaineers (#25 – AP / #22 – USA Today Polls):

Wow!  Oh how the wild world of college football can turn your fortunes in a matter of mere weeks.  Just ask the West Virginia Mountaineers.  As little as three weeks ago, West Virginia was ranked in the top-5 and had the logical Heisman Trophy winner in Geno Smith playing for their team.  Now, just three short weeks later, West Virginia is coming off their second consecutive loss ad barely clinging to a top-25 position.  The shine on Geno Smith’s Heisman Trophy coronation has been dulled and some are beginning to wonder if the Mountaineers were really pretenders instead of contenders.

The Mountaineers make this list two weeks in a row and epitomize how fast a team can fall from grace in the world of college football.  No, I don’t think I’m piling on, but in this game you can be on top one week, and then at the bottom of the pile the next!  Getting obliterated at home in a national spotlight game is not a good way to make your way off of this list!

This week, the Mountaineers get a chance to lick their wounds as they have a bye before they finish their season with a home-away rotation starting with TCU on November 3rd.  At this point they are scheduled to play only one remaining ranked team on their schedule, Oklahoma on Nov. 17th in Morgantown.  If West Virginia wants to get back into the thick of the Big 12 race, they need to use this off week to work on strengthening their 117th ranked defense.  While most weeks Big 12 teams can put 50 points or more on the scoreboard, most teams are able to get a stop on defense here or there…not West Virginia.  Last week, Kansas State only punted 1 time and that wasn’t until the fourth quarter!  In fact, the Wildcats scored a touchdown on 7 consecutive possessions.  With a defense like that, it is going to be hard to win many games in the Big 12.

Oct. 18, 2012; Tempe, AZ, USA; Arizona State Sun Devils wide receiver Chris Coyle is tackled by the Oregon Ducks defense in the second half at Sun Devil Stadium. Oregon defeated Arizona State 43-21. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-US PRESSWIRE

Arizona State Sun Devils (NR – AP / USA Today Polls):

While the Arizona State Sun Devils painted the desert black last Thursday night for their nationally televised showdown with the AP / USA Today’s #2 team in the Oregon Ducks, they missed out on a chance to capitalize on having the home crown in their corner.  Arizona State hadn’t hosted a game of that magnitude since Reggie Bush, Mark Sanchez and the #1-rated USC Trojans came to the desert.  The Sun Devils were outmatched in that game as well by a final of 38-28.

Early on last Thursday night things started out well, Arizona State recovered a fumble and took the ensuing possession in for a score…and that was it!  The Ducks just bludgeoned the Sun Devils from there on out.  Oregon was able to generate 5-10-15 yards per play both on the ground and through the air, and then would immediately hop up, and line up for the next play before Arizona State was really ready to play.  The pace of the action possibly contributed to Arizona State losing their best defensive pass rushers in Will Sutton and Junior Onyeali.  No matter, the Oregon Ducks were just too good, and it leaves head coach Todd Graham with some confidence rebuilding.

All is not lost in Tempe, they are 3-1 in the Pac-12′s Southern Division and they are tied for 1st place with USC.  Arizona State gets a second consecutive home game this week against an erratic UCLA team.  Coach Mora will undoubtedly have his team ready to play so Arizona State will need to be on their toes.  The Sun Devils had better not be looking ahead to their match-ups with Oregon State Nov. 3rd and USC on Nov. 10th or they might just find themselves with another home loss!

Oct 20, 2012; College Station, TX, USA; Texas A

Texas A&M Aggies (#22 – AP / #21 – USA Today Polls):

Kevin Sumlin’s first season as Aggies head coach has been up and down.  Texas A&M has been much more exciting than last year’s squad that underperformed, but they have not been able to keep pace with “big boys”.

Don’t get me wrong, Texas A&M has been an offensive juggernaut scoring at a clip of 43 points per game (9th nationally), but they have faltered in the second halves of games against elite teams (i.e. Florida and LSU).  Texas A&M has been relying upon Johnny Football, quarterback Johnny Manziel, to lead them to the promised land, and he hasn’t quite been able to do that yet.  Manziel for his part, has been other-worldly, but he is only one person.  The rest of the team, including the 64th-ranked Aggies defense.  To date, the best team the Aggies have defeated is Louisiana Tech, and it took a shootout (59-57) to do it.  Texas A&M’s biggest games have been against Florida and LSU, and they were both in College Station, normally a very difficult place for opponents to play.  Both teams took the Aggies best punch in the first half, made adjustments at halftime, and executed a near flawless game plan in the second half to steal the game from the Aggies.

Texas A&M now takes to the road for the next 3 weeks starting this weekend when they travel to Auburn to battle the Tigers.  After that, not much…they just get to go to Starkville and take on Mississippi State followed by a vacation in Tuscaloosa against the Crimson Tide.  So, if Kevin Sumlin thought the SEC would be the perfect fit for the Aggies and his style of play, he may have another thing coming.

Waiting List:  Florida Gators, Alabama Crimson Tide, Oregon State Beavers,

Oct 20, 2012; Madison, WI, USA; The Wisconsin Badgers celebrate with the Paul bunyan Axe following the game against the Minnesota Golden Gophers at Camp Randall Stadium. Wisconsin defeated Minnesota 38-13. Mandatory Credit: Jeff Hanisch-US PRESSWIRE

Rivalries, like the changing of the leaves, are a staple of college football that most enjoy and look forward to each year.  No doubt people in Michigan and Ohio know what game is played the last Saturday in November, as well as those that live in Alabama.

Our rivalry games take on such significance that we even dub them with nicknames.  For example, the Oregon-Oregon State game is called “the Civil War” while the Washington-Washington State clash is titled “the Apple Cup.”  The Montana – Montana State game is called “the Brawl of the Wild” or the annual tilt between Mississippi and Mississippi State is given the moniker “the Egg Bowl.”  So, in deference to the time-honored tradition of college football rivalries, let me list some of my favorite rivalry nicknames (in no particular order!):

#10 – The Holy War (BYU – Utah)

#9 – The Backyard Brawl (Pitt – West Virginia)

#8 – The Red River Rivalry (Oklahoma – Texas)

#7 – The Biggest Little Game in America (Williams – Amherst)

#6 – The Big Game (Cal – Stanford)

#5 – The Iron Bowl (Auburn – Alabama)

#4 – The Game (Michigan – Ohio State)

#3 – Bedlam (Oklahoma – Oklahoma State)

#2 – The Border War (Missouri – Kansas)

#1 – The World’s Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party (Georgia – Florida)

Perhaps some of you may be wondering why all this talk of rivalries with the calendar still saying October, well, Penn State is playing its biggest rival since the glory days of Pittsburgh.  They will be squaring off with the scarlet and grey of “the” Ohio State.  For those of us old enough to remember, the last college football Saturday used to be filled with taunts, jabs, and I dare say, hatred for the boys on the left of the state, but since the Pitt and Penn State ADs can’t seem to find enough common ground for a continual series, we will settle for the occasional home-and-home dates like the one set up for 2016 and 2017.  Since Penn State joined the Big Ten, they were without a natural rival, until we looked a little further left of Pitt.

Sure I miss all the Pitt hatred I could spew at them, but now I have another team that I get to dish on, and that is the state school of the “mitten-state”.  As Reggie Jackson of the New York Yankees once said, “fans don’t boo nobodies.”  We cling to Ohio State as our lone rival not because they are from Ohio, though that would be a good enough reason, but because they are good.  It’s a measuring stick for Penn State each and every year, and we know it.  Even though Penn State and Ohio State will not be going to a bowl game this year, it still doesn’t stop each of us from thinking that we are the Big Ten Conference’s best team.  I know, Michigan and Nebraska would like to have something to say about that this weekend as well.  No matter, the winner of the annual Penn State – Ohio State game gets bragging rights for an entire year.  Those of you that like teams involved in a rivalry game know that feeling when you walk up to your vanquished foe and say, “nanny nanny boo boo” and stick your tongue out at them.  Perhaps we aren’t that juvenile, but we all want to puff out our chest when we walk around because we are kings for a year.  No team engenders that type of feeling like a rival.  So, as we watch the leaves turn colors and begin to fall, we celebrate our rivals because the bring out the best (and the worst) in the college football fan in all of us!

In 2008, Penn State was riding an emotional crest that saw them wins their first 9 games including wins at Wisconsin and Ohio State sandwiched around a win against Michigan.  The Lions were 3 wins shy of making it to the national title game.  Standing in the way of destiny…the Iowa Hawkeyes.  Penn State was ahead at the end of three quarters by the scores of 23-14.  After an Iowa touchdown, Penn State was flagged for a controversial pass interference penalty that gave Iowa good enough field position to kick the game-winning field goal as time expired.  Down went the Nittany Lions BCS title hopes.

Many were highly anticipating the rematch of Iowa and Penn State at Beaver Stadium in 2009.  Penn State opened the game with long Daryll Clark-to-Chaz Powell 79 yard touchdown play on their first offensive play from scrimmage.  Penn State would go on and add a short field goal on their next possession.  The Nittany Lions led 10-0 and wouldn’t score another point.  The game turned when Iowa’s Adrian Clayborn blocked a punt to open the fourth quarter and returned it 53 yards for a score.  That was a special teams momentum changer from which Penn State never fully recovered.  They went on to lose the game 21-10.

And, who could forget the 2004 Penn State-Iowa Classic that ended 6-4.  To this day, that was the most embarrassing and sad game I think I have ever seen, not just live, but EVER!  That game fell in the middle of a stretch where Penn State lost 6 consecutive games.  What I recall about that game was Iowa having the punter run out of the end zone and take a safety (the second such occurrence of the game mind you!) with only a few minutes remaining in the game.  By taking the safety, that put the score at Iowa 6 and Penn State 4, thereby allowing Penn State to get the ball, needing just a field goal to win.  Penn State was so inept, they couldn’t even move the ball far enough to get a field goal chance.  Needless to say, that game was one of the low points for Joe Paterno and his coaching staff.

Each year brings new hope and optimism that this will be OUR year.  Well, for Penn State fans, OUR year won’t be for awhile, but we still get a chance to exorcise those pesky Hawkeye demons.  The Nittany Lions haven’t won in Kinnick Stadium since 1999.  Bill O’Brien is hoping that a change in staff and a change in philosophy will be the tonic that Penn State needs to get a second consecutive win in this series.  Last year Penn State whipped Iowa at Beaver Stadium by the score of 13-3.  Tailback Silas Redd was a dominant force that the Hawkeye defenders could not tackle.

In 2012, Penn State and Iowa seem to be very similar in many ways.  Both teams enter the contest 4-2 overall, but 2-0 in their respective divisions.  Both teams have somewhat erratic offenses but superb defenses.  The outcome of Saturday night’s game will likely hinge on who can take advantage of turnovers, and who can convert those opportunities into scores.

Let’s see what my keys to the game are for a Penn State win over Iowa: