Can Saquon Barkley Become Penn State’s All-Time Leading Rusher?

Saturday night I found myself watching my beloved Penn State Nittany Lions get run off the field by the top-ranked Ohio State Buckeyes by a score of 38-10. However, one positive in the game was the play of true freshman running back Saquon Barkley. Seeing his first game action in nearly a month, Barkley shredded a very good Ohio State defense for 194 yards on 26 carries. He also had a 40+ yard touchdown run called back due to a hold on Brian Gaia.

Despite the Nittany Lion loss on Saturday night, Saquon Barkley proved, to anyone that still doubted him, that he is a very special player.

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I was watching the game with a friend of mine and his dad. His dad graduated from Penn State over 25 years ago, has had season tickets for many years, and has seen some of the best Nittany Lions of all-time. He said the one player that keeps coming to his mind when he sees Barkley run is Penn State great Ki-Jana Carter. I think of a more athletic Larry Johnson. Being born in 1992, I am too young to remember Carter, and all of this led to me thinking during the game: will Saquon Barkley break Penn State’s all-time rushing record?

Penn State’s current all-time leading rusher is Evan Royster, who finished his career with 3,932 rushing yards. As a true freshman in 2007, Royster rushed for 513 yards before putting together three-consecutive 1,000-yard seasons. Staying for all four years and not entering the NFL Draft early played a large role in Royster being able to break the school record.

Penn State is seven games into Saquon Barkley’s freshman campaign. However, Barkley had just one carry against Temple, did not play in the second half against San Diego State, and did not play at all against Army and Indiana. So Barkley has essentially played in just three and a half games thus far. Despite this, he already has more yards rushing (567) than Evan Royster did as a true freshman and he still has five regular season games and perhaps a bowl game left to go.

If you take away his one carry for one yard performance against Temple, Barkley is averaging 141.5 yards per game this season. That puts him on pace to rush for 1,416 yards this season, which would be a new Penn State freshman record. In all honesty, if not for the ankle injury that cost Barkley two and a half games, he’d make a serious run, no pun intended, at Larry Johnson’s single season rushing record this season.

Barkley’s 141.5 yards per game average puts him on pace to rush for 1,839 yards over the course of a full season. At that pace, he would shatter Royster’s record and end up breaking it at some point during his junior season. The fact Penn State should have a better offensive line next season and then see even more improvement in 2017 should also help Barkley’s cause.

Now, there are some factors that will work against Barkley, one of which is the depth chart. That may sound crazy, as he is already atop the depth chart as a true freshman, however, highly touted running back Andre Robinson, who is currently being redshirted, will be ready to contribute next fall. Plus, Miles Sanders, the nation’s top-ranked running back, will be looking to make an immediate impact as a true freshman next fall. Robinson and Sanders both are too talented to keep off the field, and both will cut into Barkley’s carries starting next season.

This is something that happened to Royster in 2010 when a true freshman by the name of Silas Redd burst onto the scene.

Furthermore, odds are if Barkley stays healthy he will leave for the NFL Draft after just three seasons. I know no one wants to hear that, especially just half a season into a player’s career, but the fact is Barkley would probably be drafted in the top three rounds of the NFL Draft if he entered this spring. By the spring of 2018, he might be the top running back on the board.

But there are plenty of factors working in Barkley’s favor. First and foremost, his pure talent. He possesses an elite combination of quickness, pure speed, power, athleticism, balance, and most importantly, vision. Barkley has the best vision of any running back I have ever seen at Penn State, and vision is the most important skill a running back can posses. There’s a reason why Barkley runs at will against defenses behind Penn State’s offensive line while the other running backs struggle.

There are very few running backs in the country that feature the skill set Barkley does. Not many guys have the ability to spot a hole, hit the hole, and then turn on the burners like Barkley can do. Plus, as we have seen, Barkley also possesses a great ability to stiff-arm, run through, and even leap over defenders. In my opinion, next to Ohio State’s Zeke Elliot, Saquon Barkley is already the second-best running back in the Big Ten.

Numbers are also working in Barkley’s favor. As I said above, he’s already rushed for more yards than Evan Royster did as a freshman and is on pace for 1,416 yards. Let’s play it conservatively and say Barkley finishes this season with 1,300 yards rushing. That would put him 2,632 yards short of Royster’s record. He would need to average 1,316 yards per season over the next two to break it as a junior, and even in splitting reps with Andre Robinson and Miles Sanders, Barkley could still easily average 1,316 yards per season over the next two seasons.

Health of course will play a role too. If not for an ankle injury, Barkley very possibly may have eclipsed 1,000 yards rushing on the season already. But if Barkley stays healthy, I expect him to finish this season with around 1,300 yards rushing and to be good for around 1,400 yards per season moving forward. Even if Barkley leaves for the draft after his junior season, he could be on pace to become the first 4,000-yard rusher in Penn State history.

Unless injuries become an issue or something unforeseen happens, I believe Saquon Barkley will become the first 4,000-yard rusher in Penn State history and become the Nittany Lions’ all-time leading rusher.

If he stays all four years, I could see him becoming the first back in program history to eclipse 5,000 career rushing yards. I realize this is a lot of praise for a true freshman, but Sa-Sa is simply that darn good.