November 12, 2011; University Park, PA, USA; Penn State Nittany Lions cheerleader looks on during the game against the Nebraska Cornhuskers at Beaver Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Evan Habeeb-USA TODAY Sports

Penn State Football – Over/Under 8.5 Wins


One of the most talked about moments of the long summer has arrived.  I am of course talking about the release of the first few over/under wins total future lines.  As always these are for entertainment purposes only, but it always generates some fun discussion amongst the football starved population, and really, that’s the best we have until fall camps open in a little over a month.

The folks at 5Dimes released just 19 teams earlier today, but that list did include Penn State.  A year after most odds makers had the Lions at just 5.5, or in some cases, 6.5 wins for the year, only to get blown out of the water, the wiseguys have PSU slotted at 8.5 to open.  To all but the most myopic amongst us, that sounds about right.  As I peruse the schedule for this coming season, I typically get to 8  wins or 9 if I’m feeling good.  On a schedule that includes the likes of Michigan, Ohio State, Nebraska, and Wisconsin, plus no sure things like Syracuse, Minnesota, and Purdue, it’s hard to get to much more with the questions needing answered.

Some other teams of note:

  • Pitt (5.5) – I don’t know the schedule that well, but my gut says under, because Pitt.
  • USC (10.5) – I’ve looked at their schedule a few times, and can’t figure out how they get to 9 or 10, let alone 11 or more.  New quarterback, still hurting at depth from their own sanctions, and Lane Kiffin is still in charge.
  • Louisville (10.5) – I will probably get some heat for this, but I love the over.  As long as Bridgewater stays healthy, I don’t know how they lose more than 1 with that schedule.
  • Alabama (11.5) – So, do you think the Tide returns to the championship game, or not.  I’m not betting against Saban.

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  • Willie Green

    10-2 is optimistic, but doable.
    9-3 is probable (might lose to Nebraska or Wisconsin, but not both.)
    8-4 is a repeat of last year, I expect better.

    Our experinced offensive unit is a major factor. Even with an inexperienced QB, they won’t be starting the season ironing the kinks out of a brand new system. And their experience will enable the QB (whichever one it may be) to develop and improve quickly before encountering the more difficult games on the schedule.

    Pitt sucks.

    • PSUMatt2005

      I think you grossly underestimate what a first year QB, plus the lack of depth can do to a team. There’s a lot of inexperience in the secondary too. The schedule is favorable early on, but a grind late.

      • Willie Green

        I’m a firm believer in “continuous improvement.”
        And although my expectations may seem difficult to achieve, I don’t consider them to be unrealistic. I’m not going to lower my expectations just because of an inexperienced QB, secondary and lack of depth. I’ll consider those factors when I evaluate their actual performance. In the mean time, I’ve established realistic goals that I expect them to strive to achieve.