Penn State Football: Keys to the Game (Game #10 – Nebraska Cornhuskers)
By Corey Hunter
Convert 3rd and 4th Down Plays!
November 3, 2012; West Lafayette, IN, USA; Penn State Nittany Lions head coach Bill O
If you ask most college coaches what it takes to win a football game, you are likely to hear some semblance of this response: a balanced offense, good, solid defense, and don’t make mistakes on special teams. No doubt there are other intangibles that go into a winning game formula, but let’s look at the defense aspect of that response for a moment.
How does a team display a ‘good, solid defense?’ Yes, they must stop the running game at the point of attack, and they must neutralize the quarterback position. All of these things Penn State is going to need to do to beat Nebraska Saturday, but something else that may get missed by many, is they need to limit an opposing team’s success rate when it comes to 3rd and 4th down conversions.
Third and fourth down conversions are the life-blood of an offense. Their successes provide the vital infusion of life for an offense to move the ball just a little further, to change field position, and perhaps even score. Conversely, not converting on third and fourth downs sap life from an offense, a crowd, and sometimes even an over-worked and tired defense. When we compare both Penn State and Nebraska we find very similar statistics for both teams in these areas. Penn State is converting 3rd downs at a 42.47% (62/146) clip, good for 6th in the Big Ten while Nebraska is hitting on third downs at a rate of 43.22% (51/118), placing them 4th in the conference.
What we notice on fourth down is how striking it is to see the number of times Penn State has attempted a fourth down play. They have gone for it 30 times this season which is second nationally only to Army’s 34 attempts. The Nittany Lions have a fourth down conversion rate of 53.33% (16/30) while Nebraska has only gone for it a scant 6 times, converting on 4 of them (66.67%). As the old adage goes, the “whole is greater than the sum of its individual parts” applies here. If we combine each team’s individual 3rd and 4th down successes together we find this interesting nugget, Penn State would have successfully converted on 78 of 176 attempts (44.32% success rate) and Nebraska would have been successful on 55 of 124 attempts (44.35% success rate). Statistically speaking, these rates differ by only 0.03%, which indicates that these are evenly matched teams, when it comes to the business-end of the offense.
Maybe you’re wondering what all of these numbers has to do with Saturday’s game – fair enough. The way I see it, the team that can be more successful on third and fourth downs will be the team that stays on the field longer, wearing down the opposing team’s defense. How did Penn State manage to lose to Ohio and Ohio State? They let both teams convert an inordinate amount of third and fourth downs, especially in the second half which wore down the defense. Why was Penn State so successful against both squads in the first half?…because they got off the field without letting wither team really convert third or fourth down plays.
Nebraska has the ability to do the same thing to Penn State. Penn State must remain committed to the gameplan they establish to try and limit the big plays from the Abdullah/Martinez combination. Both will run the ball, and like the Miller/Hyde combination from Ohio State, they will likely find some success. Penn State, however, must find a way to limit the number of times they are successful, especially on third and fourth downs. If they can do that, no question that Penn State will win this game.
* FYI, in case you were wondering, Nebraska is allowing opposing teams to convert 3rd and 4th down plays at a rate of 34.87% (53/152), and Penn State is allowing foes to complete 3rd and 4th down plays at a rate of 38.27% (62/162).