Many have speculated about the outcome of Penn State’s 2012 season, following the loss of key contributors like Silas Redd and Anthony Fera. One of my favorite sites, PredictionMachine.com, has done the math.
The Predictalator is the most advanced sports forecasting software available today. The technology has the ability to account for all of the statistical interactions of the players (playing or not playing/injured), coaches, officials, fans (homefield advantage) and weather in each game. The Predictalator plays every game 50,000 times before it’s actually played. This provides PredictionMachine.com the ability to assign probabilities to the likelihood of just about any outcome occurring in any event as well as to project individual statistics and more including straight-up, against-the-spread and over/under pick percentages for each game.
So how does the Predictalator see Penn State’s 2012 season going? On average, Penn State wins 5.9 games and loses 6.1. That’s just a shade better than the 5.5 Over/Under win total floating around from Vegas.
PM breaks down every conference, going as far as predicting that Alabama will beat USC in the national championship, 56.5 percent of the 50,000 games, by an average score of 26.5-20.2
In the Big Ten, they have both Michigan and Ohio state winning 9.3 games, but with OSU ineligible for post season play, they predict Michigan to beat an 8.6 win Wisconsin team before losing to Oregon in the Rose Bowl, by a score of 41-33.
What does this mean? Well, the games still have to be played, but take a look at the stats:
Since launching in January 2010, this remarkable technology is over 60% against-the-spread with football Locks of the Week, over 60% ATS with Paul’s Picks in the NFL, college football and the NCAA Tournament, over 57% with “normal” or better picks all-time in the NFL, NBA and MLB combined and over 53% with all playable picks. And finally, with a perfect 2011 postseason, the Predictalator is now 20-3 against-the-spread in NFL playoff games. In 2011, college football “normal” or better O/U win total picks went 11-6 (65% O/U), while all ‘normal” or better O/U for games during the season went 74-48 (61% O/U).
Be sure to check back next week when the VBR staff makes our own predictions on the season, without the help of some fancy-smancy computer!
For all of the latest on the Penn State Nittany Lions, follow VBR Lead Editor Tim Tolley on Twitter.