Were the scouts right about Andrew Luck coming out of high school? photo by Mark J. Rebilas-US PRESSWIRE
After the dust settled on Wednesday night I researched the Penn State class rankings and shared them here on VBR. Following that post, I had a debate on twitter with some folks, as to whether or not star-ratings matter. I argued that they do, though not all the time. For every Aaron Rodgers (no offers) and Victor Cruz (1 star), there are 20 Julio Jones, AJ Greens, Beanie Wells, Matt Barkley, Percy Harvin, Mark Sanchez…
Many disagreed with me. @PennStateJB points out that “many factors go into winning besides recruiting” and that “rating high school recruits is an art form, not an exact science.” I agree with all of that, but I find it difficult to believe that stacking 4 and 5 star recruits will not pay off in the end, even if simply by a law of averages.
Expecting to find arguments for both sides, I decided to go back and do some digging. I’m going to use Scout.com because their database goes back far enough and many people respect them.
I’ll simply list the 5 star players that you’ll recognize along with the 3 star players that also turned out to be solid players. For the record there are FAR more total prospects in the 3 star category than there are 5 star players by a 7 to 1 ratio.
2005
*****
Mark Sanchez
Tony Moeacki
Kenny Phillips
Ray Maualuga
Brian Cushing
DeSean Jackson
Rashard Mendenhall
***
Zoltan Mesko
Darrius Heyward Bey
James Laurinaitis
Sean Lee
Shonn Greene
Ray Rice
Felix Jones
2006-
*****
Beanie Wells
Andre Smith
Gerald McCoy
Sergio Kendle
Percy Harvin
Matt Stafford
Brandon Graham
CJ Spiller
Taylor Mays
LeSean McCoy
Tim Tebow
Brandon Spikes
DeMarco Murray
***
DeMaryius Thomas
Greg McElroy
TJ Yates
Evan Royster
Vontae Davis
Mark Herzlich
Kenny Britt
Dexter McCluster
I feel like I could stop here… but we’ll continue.
2007-
*****
Aaron Hernandez
Marvin Austin
Eric Berry
Ryan Mallett
Arrelious Benn
Martez Wilson
Anthony Davis
Major Wright
Carlos Dunlap
***
Nick Fairley
Cameron Jordan
Jared Crick
I’m going to stop at ’07 as most of the ’08 kids haven’t had a chance to prove themselves… but for the record- Terrelle Pryor, Julio Jones, Da’Quan Bowers, Patrick Peterson, AJ Green, Mike Adams, Matt Kalil, Michael Floyd and a guy named Andrew Luck were all 5 star recruits in 2008.
Also worth noting, in 2008 and 2009, Alabama had the 1st and 2nd ranked classes, while LSU came in at 7th and 3rd. 3/4 years later, those kids played each other for the National Championship.
Bottom line: Regardless of whether or not coaches are willing to aknowledge them, STARS DO MATTER.
Are there some 5 star busts? Absolutely. Are there some unheralded kids who go on to do great thiings? Sure there are. And while many things go into winning in college football, they all start with recruiting.
The definitive answer is in the percentages. About 30% of the 5 star kids go on to be drafted in the 1st 3 rounds after illustrious college careers while that percentage is less than 5% for the 3 star kids.
The more 4 and 5 star recruits a team can stack up on National Signing Day, the better chance that team has of those kids blossoming into stars. When you build a team of 2 and 3 star players, you’re essentially playing the lottery.
For instance, OSU received commitments from 3 4 star LBs. The odds of at least one of them becoming and All-Conference player is greater than it would be if you pulled just one 3 star LB, as PSU did.
That’s not an opinion.
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Tags: Featured, Ohio State, Penn State, Popular, Urban Meyer
I am the lead editor and writer for VictoryBellRings.com as well as a recruiting analyst for Fansided150.com and PennLive.com.
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I agree with you Tim. A VT alum and myself, a PSU alum, have noticed that before even though we haven’t done the research. VT and PSU have consistently ranked lower in recruiting rankings and have done a marvelous job of taking low ranked kids and turning them into productive college athletes. It’s a great testimony to two clean, respective programs. But… are either teams a perennial superpower that plays for the BCS. No – not quite. But, somehow I’m always proud of what PSU does with who they recruit. And I know VT is also.
The news from the Big10 meeting and how Urban has been recruiting was interesting. Will BoB buy into that type of recruiting to gain an edge or will we uphold our PSU standards?
@hudson3882 From the sounds of it, Meyer wasn’t actually doing anything wrong, other than flipping recruiting committed players. PSU was guilty of that with CB DaQuan Davis and WR Trevor Williams, who had both committed to WVU, along with QB Steven Bench, a Rice commit.
It’s worth noting that “some” SEC teams have been known to oversign and eliminate the dead weight later, opening up more scholarships. Thas is partially responsible for their success, without a doubt.
@PSUTimm I definitely believe that there wasn’t anything done illegally by Team Urban but I think everyone was thrown by his SEC recruiting tactics. We flipped recruits, but not from any other Big10 team.
I’m not sure why everyone was surprised by their tactics but I believe it will open up a new form of rivalry in the conference. PSU can win at this if they stand by their standards set by JoePA. Kids that receive offers from PSU and SEC schools either will jump right away at the glamour of playing in the south or they will think of the larger picture of academics and athletics. OSU smells like a SEC type school so far – we’ll see how they act over the next couple of years.
Nice blog, Tim. Definitely agree with you on the stars making a difference.
As for the Urban stuff, the complaints from Bielema were fairly ridiculous. Even his own AD basically told him to shut up after a while. Is Urban aggressive? Yes. But being the best means getting the best players, so as long as no rules are broken, then I’m all for his methods. Also, I’d love to see the clause or section of Bielema’s fictional “Gentlemen’s Agreement” that mentions it being ok to score 83 points on Indiana! Haha!
@AJBor41 No kidding! Bielema goes for 2 when he’s up by 60 on Minnesota, but now that he’s on the wrong end, he wants everybody to play nice. Penn State got hit the hardest by Urb-I’m glad O’Brien isn’t crying.
Hey Tim great article.
Hey Tim great article. I get into this argument all the time. While there are definitely exceptions, 5 stars turn into productive players far more often. With that in mind, I feel that while this class lacks the upper echelon type of players, it may still turn out to be very useful. I think Da’Quan Davis could contribute immediately in the secondary. Eugene Lewis would get the second look (behind Bill Belton) to start at WR opposite of Justin Brown if I were the coach. Those are just two that immediately jumped into my mind. Do you plan to do an article highlighting recruits that are high on PSU’s wish list for next year and what schools they are interested in? I know its early, but next year is huge for us again. Keep up the great work!
Do Stars Matter? I guess that depends to whom. To fans, stars are the best way to judge our team’s recruiting success vs. the other schools we compete against. Or at least it gives us plenty to talk about. So to fans, sure stars matter.
To coaches, stars should not matter at all. Coaches should not be looking at recruiting services to decide which QB to recruit. They should be watching tape, going to games, talking to the players, looking at their grades, etc. They should be doing their own evaluations and putting their own “star” ratings on players. The recruiting services likely don’t include grades, character, heart and other intangibles in their “star” ratings. These things matter to coaches and should to us fans as well. Team chemistry is also important. I’d rather have a 3 star linebacker who plays his heart out and picks up his teammates than a 5 star who is only after “his”. Also, coaches have to recruit based on need to a certain extent. Kids with high star ratings might not be available at certain positions. So the staff will go after the best 2 and 3 star kids they can find at that position. And you can only put one QB on the field at a time, so why would you want more than 3 highly rated QBs at any one time?
Of course a good coaching staff can put in a system, coach up a bunch of 2 star players and compete with the big boys (see Boise State). But they are really the exception and not the rule. Plus over an 8 game SEC schedule, they’d be lucky to win 4. But if they could mix a few legit 4 and 5 stars into their lineup, who knows.
The short version of my answer is that yes, stars matter, but only to fans and only to a certain degree.
@mjg17552 I recently saw a report on how much Michigan pays for various recruiting services, including to Scout.com and Rivals. They aren’t the only ones. While they may not be looking for “stars”, they are using the services and are certainly influenced by them. Also, when was the last time Alabama, OSU, USC or Texas went after a QB that was unrated by the recruiting services?
@bmnicholas51 I actually started researching the 2013 recruits just today. Keep a look out early this coming week!
@PSUTimm I get what you are saying. I’m sure all schools use the services to some degree. If I was a coach and I got a tape from a high school I never heard of, I’d probably look online to get additional info on a kid. I’d use the services to research kids already on my radar as well. My point was really that coaches should be doing their own evaluations and not just recruiting a kid because Rivals gives him 4 stars. I doubt any of those schools you mention would recruit a QB without evaluating him personally. And part of the star rating is definitely related to who is recruiting a kid. So it goes both ways too. A 3 star QB probably gets a 4th star just because USC is going after him.
@mjg17552 I have actually watched that happen. Also have seen unrated kids get a big offer and become 3 star recruits within a week. I’m sure there’s a certain level of influence from both sides.
Having said that, the article was more about how star ratings in high school are linked to success in college and beyond. In that case, it seems as though stars are a good gauge.
@PSUTimm Agreed.
@PSUTimm @bmnicholas51 Looking forward to seeing it. This class is critical to their success IMO. I live in western PA and have seen Kugler and Foster both play a few times. Would love to see them both at PSU, but I think Foster is an OSU lean. Kugler may come down to Pitt and PSU